University of Texas athletic director, Deloss Dodds, and head football coach, Mack Brown, announced this week that they have appointed Texas defensive coordinator, Will Muschamp, as the future, would-be head coach for the Longhorns.  Muschamps salary was doubled to over $900k, making him the highest paid assistant coach in the country.  There has been no formal announcement of Mack Brown stepping down/retiring as head coach any time soon, but the raise in salary and promisary vote of confidence in Muschamp were a designed move to hold on to something good before it bolts to greener pastures. 

Brown has already lost great defensive coordinators the past few years to other BCS programs looking for new, bright head coaches.  Greg Robinson recently helmed Syracuse, and Gene Chizik is still at Iowa St.  Brown and Dodds were not about to let another defensive guru leave their sidelines.  The timing of the Longhorns' decision is far from coincidental.  With many prime BCS head-coaching positions coming open, it was only a matter of time before those programs started burning down Muschamp's phone lines.  Clemson, Auburn, Tennessee, Washington, etc would have been great programs to get his feet wet in.  However, Texas is one of the Holy Grails for coaching.  You don't step away from UT with an opportunity like this staring you in the face.  At 37 years old, Muschamp has plenty of years to learn and wait patiently for his time.  Mack Brown currently has an 8 year contract, but is likely to retire before its end and not renogiate for longer.

So, why Muschamp?  Why wasn't the same deal struck for Chizik, Robinson, or even current, longtime offensive coordinator Greg Davis?  Why not QB coach, all-time UT fan favorite, Major Applewhite?  I think Muschamp was a once in a lifetime window of opportunity that UT could not pass up.  Every Saturday we hear the ESPN bobble-heads talk more about Muschamp and his future than they talk about Brown.  Undoubtably, more than a few people in the CFB industry understand that Muschamp has more going for him than just a few successful seasons at several BCS programs.  He must already have wonderful recruiting inroads lined up across the southern USA that most head coaches, much less assistant coaches, would love to have.  For the last 5+ years UT has built itself into an offensive machine with occassional decent defensive squads.  Now comes the time when a superb defense needs to be raised in order to keep up with the new, spread offenses sprouting everywhere.  Muschamp will undoubtably be the right guy to recruit the speed talent needed to defend highflying passing attacks.

Doesn't Muschamp remind you of a guy up north in Norman?  Think back to that firey defensive coordinator that use to hop around insanely on Steve Spurrier's side-line?  Doesn't Muschamp's animation remind you of Bob Stoops?  Stoops has definitely mellowed more and more as head coach, but his defensive prowess and ability to fire up his team, are clearly similar to Muschamp's animated style.  The Longhorns, having lived for decades under old-school, CEO-type head coaches, but would now be looking at a headcoach that's active in play calling and coordinating, and brings youthful vigor to the sidelines.

However, I don't think it's just recruiting in-roads or sparky defense that have tipped the scales for Muschamp.  We usually don't get a feel for assistant coaches' personalities or private lives, as they typically live modest existences under their head coaches.  The media just doesn't have time and money to give any coverage to an assistant.  However, we've seen plenty of it this year for Muschamp.  A lot of that attention must be that he's an approachable and likeable fellow.  Perhaps there's a guy there that can work a press conference and booster/alumni meeting?  Perhaps this is another one of those special, Good Ole Boys, that often seem more politician than coach, which is exactly what a top-notch college football program needs at its helm.  As much as his job will be X's and O's, he also has to constantly work the phones, make the visits, press the hands, and kiss the mothers and babies to be successful.  You can bet that Dodds and Brown have spotted these qualities in Muschamp.  Dodds has taken a lot of flack in his 15+ years as UT atheltic director, but he's built the whole university into a highly competitive, NC caliber program in any sport.  So, he's not a stupid or dense fellow.  Likewise, Brown, having had to fill the great shoes of Darrell Royal, knows what it takes to be coach at Texas.  Former head coach John Mackovic was a perfectly capable coach for any major program.  However, he lacked the special qualities of being a diplomat and politician that are required at Texas.  Alumni never liked him.  He didn't fit in as a Texas good ole boy, and he didn't have the demeanor that would enamor himself to high school coaches and Texas families.  Mackovic's predesessor, David McWilliams, had the opposite problem.  He knew how to be friendly, and was a Texas orangeblood through and through.  However, he was not the CEO type that could manage all aspects of a big time program.  He was just a friendly, overrated high-school coach taking advantage of Texas-sized talent.  We have to look back before him to Fred Akers (Darrell Royal's successor) to remember what Texas CEO-type coaching was like.  Akers was a good coach who understood how to work the recruiting lanes and handle the national pressure of being UT head coach.  However, he fell victim to the worst of coaching fates... the fans weren't content with just winning, but were spoiled to want championships.  So he was fired after a decade of near misses at the national level.  Luckily for Mack Brown, he was able to gain his NC in 2005, and thus earn himself a spot in Texas lore with Darrell Royal, Tommy Nobis, Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams, Vince Young, etc.  So, Mack is qualified to detect and decide who would be a quality candidate to replace him someday.

So, is Muschamp ready to be the next CEO of the Texas Longhorns?  Not likely right now, which is why him spending a few more seasons apprenticing under Brown will be great.  Muschamp likely already has the X's and O's down to coach any program in the country.  However, as I mentioned before, it takes more than those abilities to coach at Texas.  Brown and Dodds recognize this, but see the seeds of potential that could blossom with time and patience.  UT fans can be happy that Mack Brown is hanging around for at least another few seasons.  And, wouldn't it be great to see another NC under his belt?  However, isn't it greater now knowing that if/when Brown decides to step down, that there is already a worthy replacement waiting in the wings?

Imagine small town Burton, Texas, the year is 2015, and there is a 5-star , blue-chip, all world high school stud?  Texas head coach, Will Muschamp, just came in through your family's front-door, looking to recruit you as the next star QB or RB for Texas.  Following him through the door are Mack Brown and Darrell Royal, hoping to give that little extra incentive to attend "The University".  Not only are you star-struck to meet the current Texas head coach, but you get to have even more honey poured into your ears by 2 coaching legends.  Do you think Muschamp is just the future figure head of this program?  Not likely.  If he has Dodds and Brown's endorcement, you can bet he also has Royal's and a multitude of heavy hitters in the Texas alumni and booster clubs, as well as Texas politics.

"Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you the President of the Texas Longhorns!"

I guess Will must know what Princes Harry and William are feeling these days being heirs to the throne of England, in waiting for 20+ years.  Let's hope that it doesn't turn into a Charles-like wait of 50+ years.  I think Muschamp will give the Longhorns 3 years, by the time he's 40, to raise him to head coach.  Brown will undoubtably step aside graciously, and continue to support and mentor Muschamp all the way to more Texas NCs.

Hook'em!

Yawn.  I really considered not writing this article this week, as no one lost this past week.  It was probably the most boring week in CFB of the season.  I suppose we can't be spoiled with upsets and BCS shake-ups every week.  This coming weekend should add some shake to the BCS mess with rivalries and conference/division titles on the line.  Here are the 5 Undefeateds that stayed alive for another week:

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1. Alabama (11-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: @LSU, @Georgia.  Near Misses: Kentucky, LSU.
Remaining Toughies:  Auburn, SEC CC.
BCS Breakdown:   Currently #1 in the BCS standings, the Crimson Tide's destiny is in their own hands.  Win out, and you're in.  They've already sewn up a spot in the SEC Championship Game, to be paired with the #4 Florida Gators, which should be one of the better games of the season, and instant classic.  A loss to Auburn or Florida this late in the season would likely nix their chance at a spot in the Top 2.
Comments: The Crimson Tide once again looked less than overwhelming against a tough Miss. St. squad.  Despite being #1 in all polls, this looks like a very beatable team, and Florida is licking its chops for a big matchup in the SEC CC game.  However, Bama still has the Iron Bowl in two weekends against Auburn, and the Tide has lost the last 6 years.  Look for Bama to take advantage of a struggling Auburn squad, and look for them to take care of business at home.

2. Texas Tech (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: Okalhoma St, Texas   Near Misses: Texas.
Remaining Toughies:  @Oklahoma, Big 12 CC. 
BCS Breakdown:  Sitting at #2 in the current rankings, Tech controls its own destiny.  Win out, and you play in the BCS Championship Game in Florida.  Oklahoma and likely Missouri (in the Big 12 CC) might have something to say about it.  OU would love nothing better than to beat #2, and vault themselves up into the top 2 spots of the BCS.  This and the SEC championship game will be the 2 most important games of the year.  A Tech loss virtually assures them of dropping too far down, too late in the season, and possibly losing an at-large BCS birth, which Texas is lined up for as a second Big 12 representative.
Comments: The Red Raiders did not play this past week, and are prepping for their All-Time Most Important Game Ever at OU this weekend.  Tech is not use to playing in the Big Game, and it's uncertain whether that works for or against them.  OU regularly plays in the Big Game, but is snake-bitten over the past half-decade in the most important games.  Can Snoops get off the snyde, or will only his 3 loss ever in Norman begin the rumblings of replacement in Soonerland?  Tech head coach, Mike Leach, is the flavor of the year, and may get an invite out of Lubbock following this successful season to a more prestigous program.  Do I hear Rocky Top?


3. Utah (11-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: TCU, @Michigan, Oregon St.  Near Misses: Plenty. 
Remaining Toughies:  BYU.
BCS Breakdown:  Still at #7, the Utes are sitting sweet for a BCS bowl game.  They have virtually no chance of playing in the NC game, as the system does not give much hope of that happening for a non-BCS school.  However, they still have everything to lose in a regular season ending game versus BYU.  With both BYU and Utah lingering in the BCS Top 25, this year's Holy War should be one of the best ever.  A loss knocks Utah down to a middling bowl at best, and allow non-BCS buster, Boise St, to move into the coveted non-BCS slot for the big shows. 
Comments:  The Utes held serve this weekend in their annihilation at San Diego St.  Now for perhaps their All-Time Most Important Game Ever against BYU in the Holy War.  Winner of this game likely has the inside track to being the non-BCS rep to the big shows, by virtue of being the highest ranked.  BYU moved up in the BCS this week to #14, within striking distance of #9 Boise St.  A strong win at Utah might boost them past Boise St, who is playing a patsy schedule this season.  A Ute win guarantees their spot in the BCS dance, but it would take a miracle to get them in the NC game.

4. Boise State (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  99%
Key Wins:  @Oregon.  Near Misses:  @Oregon. 
Remaining Toughies:  Fresno St. 
BCS Breakdown:  #9.  Any other season, if you saw Boise St sitting at #9 this late in the season, you'd think, "Wow! They're getting one of those non-BCS at-large bids easily."  However, this year, they're looking up to another undefeated non-BCS squad at Utah.  The Broncos are big BYU fans this year, needing the Cougars to dethrone the Utes in their season finale, in order the Broncos to be the highest ranked non-BCS school.  I doubt Oklahoma wants to see them again on the field in Tempe.  Maybe they'll see the Texas Longhorns instead, if BYU gives them the help.
Comments:  Another week, another blowout for the Broncos.  No amount of points will garner any respect from BCS voters and the computers.  Boise St. normally plays a decent team or two on their schedule, but this was one of those off-years where everything fell into place for them to make an undefeated run.  Unfortunately, there are several other non-BCS schools that are good this season, and even undefeated, the Broncos may be playing a middle-tier bowl game.  Next up for the Broncs are the dreaded Wolf Pack of Nevada on the road.

5. Ball State (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  66%
Key Wins:  @Indiana (relatively speaking).  Near Misses:  None. 
Remaining Toughies:  LOL, they play a bunch of directional teams from here out.
BCS Breakdown:  #17.  Poor BSU.  No respect.  Despite winning 31-16 on the road at Miami(Ohio), they slipped back 3 spots in the BCS rankings.  I suppose it really can be argued that many of the 2-3 loss teams of BCS conferences are better than the Cardinals.  Pollsters confuse the best performing team relative to their schedule with who deserves to play for the NC, which is what the BCS is designed to do.  BSU is having a dream season, but they could never deserve to play for the NC, as they simply do not prove themselves against tougher competition week in and week out.
Comments:  The Cards looks to continue their streak to perfection at Central Michigan this weekend.  This could prove to be BSU's toughest opponent of the year, as CMU is 6-0 in conference, and 8-2 on the year.  Their only two losses came on the road to BCS schools, Georgia and Purdue.  The Georgia blowout is expected and respectable.  The Purdue loss, not so much.  Purdue stinks.  However, the great experienced gained by CMU on the road, should pay dividends in this virtual conference championship game.  This is probably BSU's All-Time Most Important Game Ever.

WHO'S GOING DOWN THIS WEEK?

I'm glad I didn't prognosticate this past week.  No one lost.  Even the BCS top 10 was boring, as their were no losses.  I suppose this is the calm before the storm of the biggies this coming weekend.

Texas Tech - look for going on the road to Norman to be too much for the Red Raiders.  Having enjoyed their own rabid crowd against Texas and Oklahoma St, Tech now has to face the music in one of the hardest venues to win in.  Remember that Bob Stoops has only lost twice in Norman during his tenure.  Bradford has a monster day against a porous Tech defense, and that keeps the Tech offensive machine off the field and out of sync.  OU wins going away.  BCS mayhem ensues. 

Ball St. - The Cardinals Cinderalla season comes to an end on the road at Central Michigan.  CMU is playing for the conference title in this game, and will bring all that their home-field advantage can give them.

Yes, we've already started hearing the marketing departments in the Big 12 crank up their spin engines in preparation for what's going to be a giant cluster-F in the final regular season standings in the Big 12 South.  The alums of Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma will be telling anyone willing to listen, about how great their team is, and how deserving they are of being the Big 12 South representative in the Big 12 Championship Game.  This is a normal occurrence most years, but this year is more special because it has national championship implications as well.  The rep from the South will likely be a heavy favorite to win the Big 12 CC game over likely Big 12 North champion, Missouri, and move on to play in the BCS National Championship Game in Miami.  So you're going to start hearing every little stat and angle for each team arguing why they should garner a higher vote in the human polls that make up the BCS rankings.

Here's the scoop as briefly as I can put it:  assuming (very big assumptions) that Oklahoma beats Texas Tech in two weeks, and then goes on to beat Oklahoma St. to finish their season 11-1.  Also assuming Texas wins the rest of its games to finish at 11-1.  Finally, assuming Texas Tech only losses to Oklahoma and beats Baylor to finish its season 11-1.  All three teams will be 7-1 in conference play.  There are a multitude of tie-breaking scenarios to try and determine which of these 3 teams would represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship game.  As a matter of fact, it goes down to a 5th tie-breaking option, which is the team ranked highest in the BCS standings.  This is where all of the hubbub kicks in.  Rather than a champion being decided upon by records or outcomes on the playing field, it is now in the hands of human voters with agendas, bad data, biases, and money on the brain.  These human voters are head coaches in the USA Today/Coaches Poll and a mix of administrators/coaches/media in the Harris Poll.  (I'm really hoping the same coaches in the Coaches Poll don't have votes in the Harris as well.)  In other words, we will have the clearest example ever of the BCS NC game being determined by who the voters want to see there the most.

Trying to exclude any of my own personal biases for Texas (see other posts and comments in other blogs for those), I will try to present some depth of information regarding the 3 programs, and let you, the reader, determine who is more deserving either through your belief in tangible data such as records and statistics, or more abstract beliefs in history, traditions, and general perception.

In alphabetic order:

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OKLAHOMA

POLLS:   (11/12) BCS - #5, AP - #5, Coaches Poll - #4, Harris Poll - #5

Assumed final record:  11-1  (7-1)
Schedule (sorry for the table alignment):
Sat., Aug 30    Chattanooga  (Div-IAA)   W 57-2
Sat., Sep 6      Cincinnati                             W 52-26
Sat., Sep 13   @Washington                    W 55-14
Sat., Sep 27   #24 TCU                               W 35-10
Sat., Oct 4    @Baylor                                  W 49-17
Sat., Oct 11      #5 Texas                                L 45-35
Sat., Oct 18   #16 Kansas                         W 45-31
Sat., Oct 25    @Kansas State                 W 58-35
Sat., Nov 1          Nebraska                          W 62-28
Sat., Nov 8      @Texas A&M                       W 66-28
Sat., Nov 22     #2 Texas Tech                    Assumed Win
Sat., Nov 29     @ #13 Oklahoma State   Assumed Win
Combined Opponent Record:  67-52  .563
NCAA Statistical Rankings:
Pts/Gm: 51.4 (2nd)
PtsAllowed/Gm:  23.6 (110th)
Yds/Gm:  549.8 (3rd)
YdsAllowed/Gm:  345.6 (108th)

Recent Notable Post-Season Accomplishments:
2000 - Big 12 Champion, National Champion
2002 - Big 12 Champion, Won Rose Bowl
2003 - Lost Big 12 Championship Game, Lost National Championship Game
2004 - Big 12 Champion, Lost National Championship Game
2006 - Big 12 Champion, Lost Fiesta Bowl
2007 - Big 12 Champion, Lost Fiesta Bowl

Further Notes of Interest:

• QB Sam Bradford -67.9%  3406yds  38TDs-6INTs  188.9 passer rating - Heisman Contender
• All-time program winning%  (through 2007):  .713
• All-time program wins:  777
• Heisman Trophy Winners:  4 - 1952 RB Billy Vessels, 1969 FB Steve Owens, 1978 RB Billy Simms, 2003 QB Jason White
• Consensus National Championships:  7 - 1950, 1955, 1956, 1974, 1975, 1985, 2000

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TEXAS

POLLS:   (11/12) BCS - #3, AP - #4, Coaches Poll - #5, Harris Poll - #4

Assumed final record:  11-1  (7-1)
Schedule:

Sat., Aug 30      Florida Atlantic    W 52-10
Sat., Sep 6       @UTEP                   W 42-13
Sat., Sep 20     Rice                          W 52-10
Sat., Sep 27     Arkansas                 W 52-10
Sat., Oct 4       @Colorado               W 38-14
Sat., Oct 11     @ #1 Oklahoma     W 45-35
Sat., Oct 18      #11 Missouri           W 56-31
Sat., Oct 25      #6 Oklahoma State W 28-24
Sat., Nov 1         @ #6 Texas Tech     L 39-33
Sat., Nov 8       Baylor                        W 45-21
Sat., Nov 15    @Kansas                  Assumed Win
Thur., Nov 27   Texas A&M              Assumed Win

Combined Opponent Record:   72-46 .610
NCAA Statistical Rankings:
Pts/Gm: 44.3 (6th)
PtsAllowed/Gm:  20.7 (66th)
Yds/Gm:  476.0 (11th)
YdsAllowed/Gm:  352.9 (124th)

Recent Notable Post-Season Accomplishments:
2001 - Lost Big 12 Championship Game
2004 - Won Rose Bowl
2005 - Big 12 Champion, National Champion

Further Notes of Interest:

• QB Colt McCoy -78.0%  2879yds,  28TDS-7INTs,  180.3 passer rating,  449yds rushing, 7 rushing TDs. - Heisman Contender
• All-time program winning%  (through 2007):  .718
• All-time program wins:  823
• Heisman Trophy Winners: 2 - 1977 RB Earl Campbell, 1998 RB Ricky Williams
• Consensus National Championships:  4 - 1963, 1969, 1970, 2005

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TEXAS TECH

POLLS:   (11/12) BCS - #2, AP - #2, Coaches Poll - #2, Harris Poll - #2  (Subject to gross change if/when they lose)

Assumed final record:  11-1  (7-1)
Schedule:

Sat., Aug 30    Eastern Washington (Div-IAA)      W 49-24
Sat., Sep 6      @Nevada                                      W 35-19
Sat., Sep 13    Southern Methodist                             W 43-7
Sat., Sep 20    Massachusetts (Div-IAA)             W 56-14
Sat., Oct 4      @Kansas State                                   W 58-28
Sat., Oct 11    Nebraska                                       W 37-31 (OT)
Sat., Oct 18    @Texas A&M                                      W 43-25
Sat., Oct 25    @ #23 Kansas                                    W 63-21
Sat., Nov 1      #1 Texas                                            W 39-33
Sat., Nov 8      #9 Oklahoma State                           W 56-20
Sat., Nov 22     @ #5 Oklahoma                             Assumed Loss
Sat., Nov 29     Baylor                                           Assumed Win

Combined Opponent Record:  65-53  .551
NCAA Statistical Rankings:
Pts/Gm: 47.9 (3rd)
PtsAllowed/Gm:  22.2 (88th)
Yds/Gm:  566.3 (2nd)
YdsAllowed/Gm:  351.4 (117th)

Recent Notable Post-Season Accomplishments:
No Big 12 Championship Game or BCS Bowl Game experience

Further Notes of Interest:

• QB Graham Harrell - 71.7%   4077yds,  36TDs-5INTs,  169.2 passer rating - Heisman Contender
• All-time program winning%  (through 2007):  .510
• All-time program wins:  448
• Heisman Trophy Winners: none
• National Championships:  none

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Common Opponent Results:
Baylor 21@ Texas 45,  OU 49 @ Baylor 17,  Baylor @ TT  11/29
Oklahoma St 24 @ Texas 28,  OU @ OSU 11/29,  OSU 20 @ TT 56
Texas A&M @ Texas 11/27,  OU 66@ A&M 28,  TT 43 @ A&M 25
Kansas 31 @ OU 45, TT 63@ Kansas 21,  Texas @ Kansas 11/15
Nebraska 28 @ OU 62,  Nebraska 31@ TT 37 OT
OU 58@ Kansas St. 35, TT 58 @ Kansas St. 28

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FINAL NOTES & OBSERVANCES:

• Texas played 4 straight Top 11 opponents in 4 weeks
• Texas Tech will have played 4 straight Top 23 opponents in 5 weeks.
• Texas Tech played 2 Div-IAA schools, Oklahoma played 1, and Texas none.
• Other than Oklahoma's loss to Texas, no other opponent has come within 2 TDs of beating OU.
• Tech needed overtime to defeat Nebraska in Lubbock.
• Texas lost on a last second TD Harrell to Crabtree, in Lubbock.
• Oklahoma has not won a BCS game since 2002.
• Texas won in the Rose Bowl back to back years in 2004 and 2005.
• Texas Tech has never won a Big 12 Championship.  Texas has won it twice.  Oklahoma 5 times, including the last 2.
• Oklahoma's road opponents are a combined 11-28.  Tech 27-21.  Texas 25-14.
• Pre-season AP rankings:  #4 OU,  #11 Texas,  #12 Texas Tech

Go ahead and throw out some more telling stats and figures for this thread.

I'll update this article as the last 2 games are played out for each team.

I need to stop prognosticating.  Maybe that's why I'm not a gambler, no luck.  All of my upsets for last week won, and the one game I didn't pick, was the lone loss amongst the Undefeateds.

A funny thing happened in Iowa this week.  A shoe-in national contender got their hopes and dream season dashed by a last second FG.  So long, Miami.  Hello. L.A.

Well we're down to the final 5 undefeateds this week.  I think by this time last season, there were only 1 or 2 undefeateds left, so despite all of the upsets this year in CFB, there are a few teams still managing to sneak through the gauntlet untouched.

I've added a new analysis section under each team regarding their BCS standings, scenarios, etc.

As our friend Hyman Roth would say, "So....Enjoy"

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1. Alabama (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: @LSU, @Georgia.  Near Misses: Kentucky, LSU.
Remaining Toughies:  Auburn, SEC CC.
BCS Breakdown:   Currently #1 in the BCS standings, the Crimson Tide's destiny is in their own hands.  Win out, and you're in.  They've already sewn up a spot in the SEC Championship Game, to be paired with the #4 Florida Gators, which should be one of the better games of the season, and instant classic.  A loss to Auburn or Florida this late in the season would likely nix their chance at a spot in the Top 2.
Comments:  It's not that LSU is bad or even mediocre.  It's that they are totally hamstrung at the most important position, and I'm not talking QB.  It's headcoach Les Miles.  It's ultimately his decision to keep a struggling, young QB out on the field in the biggest game of the year.  What does his QB, Jarrett Lee, do, he throws more completions to the other team than to his own.  Honestly, with as many mistakes as Bama made against LSU, they should have lost.  Any other team would've taken advantage of so many turnovers and block-headed decisions by Saban and the Tide.  LSU's defense and special teams played a great game, and caused the turnovers and missed pts needed for an upset.  LSU's ground game was even decent enough to poke holes in the Bama defense.  However, it seemed every step forward for the Tiger was followed by two steps backward on an INT.  Kudos to Bama for eeking out the tough win on the road.  This is the type of win that usually separates the NC contenders from the pack.  Winners find new and extraordinary ways to win.

2. Texas Tech (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: Okalhoma St, Texas   Near Misses: Texas.
Remaining Toughies:  @Oklahoma, Big 12 CC. 
BCS Breakdown:  Sitting at #2 in the current rankings, Tech controls its own destiny.  Win out, and you play in the BCS Championship Game in Florida.  Oklahoma and likely Missouri (in the Big 12 CC) might have something to say about it.  OU would love nothing better than to beat #2, and vault themselves up into the top 2 spots of the BCS.  This and the SEC championship game will be the 2 most important games of the year.  A Tech loss virtually assures them of dropping too far down, too late in the season, and possibly losing an at-large BCS birth, which Texas is lined up for as a second Big 12 representative.
Comments: The Red Raiders parlayed their success against the tough teams of the Big 12 again this week, giving Oklahoma St. a thorough spanking in Lubbock.  Unlike Texas the week before against the Red Raiders, OSU was able to come right out and punch Tech on the nose with opening TD.  However, that's about as much momentum as OSU would have all night.  Tech quickly turned the tables into a rout.  OSU was unable to keep up or slow down the juggernaut offense of Tech.  They now have 2 weeks to plan and prepare for a primetime showdown at Oklahoma on 11/22, which undoubtably will be their toughest test of the year.


3. Utah (10-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: TCU, @Michigan, Oregon St.  Near Misses: Plenty. 
Remaining Toughies:  BYU.
BCS Breakdown:  At #7, the Utes are sitting sweet for a BCS bowl game.  They have virtually no chance of playing in the NC game, as the system does not give much hope of that happening for a non-BCS school.  However, they still have everything to lose in a regular season ending game versus BYU.  With both BYU and Utah lingering in the BCS Top 25, this year's Holy War should be one of the best ever.  A loss knocks Utah down to a middling bowl at best, and allow non-BCS buster, Boise St, to move into the coveted non-BCS slot for the big shows. 
Comments:  Utah made me a believer this week in beating TCU with a late game touchdown.  The vaunted TCU defense lived up to its billing, and held the Utes down all game.  However, an underrated Utah "D" stepped up, and kept the Hornfrogs off of the scoreboard as well.  Utah found the late game energy to drive the field inside the last few minutes, and sneak away with the win.  Like Alabama against LSU, or Tech against Texas, the best teams find a way to win the biggest games at the toughest moments.

4. Boise State (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  99%
Key Wins:  @Oregon.  Near Misses:  @Oregon. 
Remaining Toughies:  Fresno St. 
BCS Breakdown:  #9.  Any other season, if you saw Boise St sitting at #9 this late in the season, you'd think, "Wow! They're getting one of those non-BCS at-large bids easily."  However, this year, they're looking up to another undefeated non-BCS squad at Utah.  The Broncos are big BYU fans this year, needing the Cougars to dethrone the Utes in their season finale, in order the Broncos to be the highest ranked non-BCS school.  I doubt Oklahoma wants to see them again on the field in Tempe.  Maybe they'll see the Texas Longhorns instead, if BYU gives them the help.
Comments:  The Broncos cruised to a blow-out victory over Utah St. this week, as QB Kellen Moore threw for almost 400 yards and 2 TDs on the blue turf.  BSU's schedule is a total skate this year, and barring a slip in mental preparedness, the Broncos should see themselves sitting in the final polls at 6-7 and no higher.  This is one of those teams that no one really knows what they're made of, as they have yet to be challenged all year and have not played anyone.   Don't look for that to change for the last 3 games of the year.

5. Ball State (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  66%
Key Wins:  @Indiana (relatively speaking).  Near Misses:  None. 
Remaining Toughies:  LOL, they play a bunch of directional teams from here out.
BCS Breakdown:  #14.  No, that's not a typo.  The Ball St. Cardinals are sitting at #14 in the BCS polls with 3 games left to play.  Unfortunately, this Cinderella program has no shot at a BCS bowl invite.  Even if Boise St and Utah managed to lose, BYU would likely leap-frog them by virtue of beating Utah.  The sad thing about Ball St's dream season, is that even if they run the tables, they're still not going to see themselves in a desirable bowl game.  They'll likely find themselves in the Michelin Tires-Mucinex Bowl in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Comments:  The Cardinals continued their wonderful run at an undefeated dream season by knocking off Northern Illinois early last week.  They are lined up this week against lowly Miami-Ohio.  Playing in an also-ran conference, and playing for the "participation award" this season, the RedHawks of Miami, would love to put an end to Ball St's perfection.  Be wary of teams like this.  When they have nothing to play for, they often play for upsetting the big dogs.  Though Ball St. is far from being the big dog in anyone's mind, they are the class of the Mid-American Conference. 

WHO'S GOING DOWN THIS WEEK?

I'm stopping my prognosticating.  After picking Utah, Bama, Tech, and Ball St to fall this past week (which was pretty foolish in hindsite), and not picking the lone team to fall, Penn St, I figured I better leave the picks to other bloggers.

In Memorium:

Penn St. - Well, we thought that this might be the last dream season for JoPa, and that he could retire in style at the of the season, with or without a championship.  However, the Nittany Lions were dealt a death-blow by a last second field goal at Iowa.  PSU's schedule is too soft to give them a shot at the NC game now, and they still have to defeat Michigan St in the season finale, to get into the Rose Bowl.  Do the Lions still have a lot to play for? You betcha!   Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, and USC became big Iowa fans this weekend, and now are looking for Tech or Bama to slip.  Florida and Oklahoma control their fates better than Texas or USC, as they both have match-ups still pending against Bama and Tech, respectively.  Thanks PSU for making the BCS an even bigger cluster-F than it previously was.  Maybe now PSU will jump aboard the BCS Playoff bandwagon.  Is PSU one of the top 8 teams in the country?  Absolutely.  Should they not still deserve a shot at the title despite one slip-up?  Yep.  The same as Texas, USC, Oklahoma, etc.  A team should not have to depend on others determining their fate after losing by one point.  If an 8-8 team can make the NFL Playoffs, then why can't a one-loss team in college still get a shot at the title?

Final Comments:

Though my homerism for UT bleeds through most of my posts, I have to speak right up with some outright homerism now.  Regarding Texas sitting at #3 in the current BCS rankings, they are slotted to move into the NC game should Tech or Bama slip up.  However, it's being supposed that should there be a three way tie in the Big 12 South between OU, Tech, and Texas, that OU would ultimately leap-frog Texas in the BCS rankings, which would be the tie-breaker to determine who represents the Big 12 South in the Big 12 CC game.  This ultimately, would also decide which team gets a shot at the BCS NC Game.   How is it that Oklahoma who lost to Texas leapfrogs them?  If that had been the only significant victory on Texas' schedule, then I'd understand it to some degree.  However look at the victories Texas has:  #1 Oklahoma, #7 Oklahoma St., and #11 Missouri.  OU's key victories would be #2 Texas Tech, #13 Oklahoma St., and #13 Kansas.  Texas still has Kansas to play this week, but we've found they are overrated, which kinda wipes or nullifies either of their claims on the wins.  So, lets substitue TCU for Kansas on OU's schedule.  TCU is a decently ranked #18 team, although they were unranked when OU beat them early in the year.  On the whole, you can still see that Texas' victories would be more impressive than OU's.  Also, Texas hasn't played any AA schools, such as Chattanooga.  So, the question needs to be asked, why is everyone keen on voting OU higher than Texas?  Also, why is OU's SOS higher than Texas', though OU managed to play a AA school and have fewer quality opponents?  I just don't understand how the numbers are adding up.  Finally, who wants to see an overrated OU squad founder in another BCS bowl game, much less NC game?  Didn't we learn our lessons on this earlier this decade?  Wouldn't a Tebow vs McCoy match-up look awesome?  Two running QBs who can also throw it around?  I'm a fan of good, interesting match-ups, and OU-Florida just isn't doing it for me.  Tech-Florida is sounding boring too.  USC-Florida might be a little better, but not likely to happen.  Texas and it's hoard of travelling alumni invading south Florida would be awesome.  The Longhorns conquered the West Coast a few years ago against USC, and now we'll conquer Florida in their homestate!  Hook'em!

OK, sorry for that homer rant, but it needed to come out now.  Hopefully, some pollster on the Harris or Coaches Poll will read this, and maybe think twice.  Prop the 'horns!

Our bundle of undefeateds was winnowed down further this week with the departures of Texas and Tulsa.   Alabama and Texas Tech now control their BCS fates, while Penn St. needs some help.  After a few weeks of relative quietness in the land of the Undefeateds, will this week shake up the whole list and BCS?

1. Alabama (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: @Georgia.  Near Misses: Kentucky.
Remaining Toughies:  @LSU, Auburn, SEC CC.
Potential Trap Games:  none 
Comments:  In what amounts to a bye week, the Crimson Tide took care of business in shutting out Arkansas St.  By virtue of a Texas loss this week to Texas Tech, Bama is now the #1 team in everyone's poll, including mine.  The Tide and Saban shouldn't rest too long.  They have their big showdown against LSU this week, where the season long side story has been Saban's big return to his old coaching grounds.  LSU has looked bad in 50pt losses to Florida and Georgia thus far this season, but Alabama hasn't been really tested since their big Georgia win a couple of months ago.  Does LSU bounce back strong with a classic Tiger D performance, or do they roll over and allow another SEC biggie to lay 50 on them?  Probably in the middle somewhere.  Should be a good, close game.

2. Penn State (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  75%
Key Wins: @Ohio St.   Near Misses: Ohio St. 
Remaining Toughies:  Michigan St.
Potential Trap Game:  @Iowa
Comments:  JoPa and the Lions had the week off, and summarily got leapfrogged in the BCS ranking by Texas Tech.  I'm surprised by such a leap, and still think Penn St. is a better team.  However, the Lions may be on the outside looking in if Tech and Bama run the tables, by virtue of stronger SOS.  Penn St. can only keep taking care of business by winning out against their relatively easy or winnable schedule, and hope for help in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

3. Texas Tech (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  25%
Key Wins: Texas, @Kansas, @Kansas St.  Near Misses: Texas.
Remaining Toughies:  Ok.St., @Oklahoma, Big 12 CC. 
Potential Trap Game:  None.
Comments: Wow! What a game for the ages.  After leading 19-0 in the first half, Tech let Texas back into the game, where Texas took the lead by 1 late in the 4th quarter.  Tech showed its meddle, and marched down the field in the last 1:30, and scored on a last second Harrell to Crabtree TD pass to take the lead back.  Crabtree is a total stud.  All Texas needed to do was tackle him inbounds, and the clock likely ticks out before Tech calls a timeout.  However, Crabtree muscled free of the tiny defender and cut back into the endzone rather than falling out of bounds.  That was gutsy to pass with 8 seconds left to get closer rather than kick the long field goal.  Tech may have brought great energy on their own home field for a night game before a national audience against the #1 team, but can they bring it again two weeks in a row?  Next up in Tech's own gauntlet is Oklahoma St. who gave Texas all it could handle in Austin.  OSU is looking for Tech to take them for granted.  Tech better show some killer instinct with a lead before it kills them.


4. Utah (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  25%
Key Wins: @Michigan, Oregon St.  Near Misses: Plenty. 
Remaining Toughies:  TCU, BYU. 
Potential Trap Games:  None
Comments:  The Utes had another near miss as they continue to live by the skin of their teeth.  They escaped with 13-10 victory on the road at New Mexico.  They continue to inch up the BCS standings, and are currently the highest rated non-BCS school at #8.  This keeps them in line for being the non-BCS representative to the BCS dance, assuming they win out.  That's a huge assumption.  Utah has a big time Thursday night battle at home versus 8-1 TCU.  TCU would love nothing more than to dethrone Utah, and gain some BCS points, to possibly leapfrog Boist St as the top non-BCS school in the rankings.  Utah has had many near misses the season, and have looked beatable at times.  Is this the week where Cinderalla falls?

5. Boise State (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  99% certainty
Key Wins:  @Oregon.  Near Misses:  @Oregon. 
Remaining Toughies:  Fresno St. 
Potential Trap Games:  Either of 2 road games remaining. 
Comments:  The Broncs went on the road and destroyed New Mexico St. this weekend.  They currently sit as the second best non-BCS school in the rankings at #10.  The could use a loss by Utah, but they aren't likely to benefit if it comes at the hands of TCU this weekend, as TCU who sits at #12 in the BCS, would likely leapfrog the Broncos.  Like a lower-tier Penn St., they need to just keep taking care of their business and win out, while depending upon a little help above them.

6. Ball State (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very good. 66%
Key Wins:  @Indiana (relatively speaking).  Near Misses:  None. 
Remaining Toughies:  LOL, they play a bunch of directional teams from here out. 
Potential Traps:  The info on the teams on their schedule is so thin, that I can't even analyze them. 
Comments:  Ball State had the week off in preparation for the final stretch of their schedule.  Western and Central Michigans along with Northen Illinois,  look to be challenges on their schedule still with one of them on the road.  Ball St. on paper is the better team, but look for the unholy directional trio to try and knock off the undefeated Cinderella.

In Memorium:  Too Little Too Late -

Texas - A tough way to go down.  After playing their worst half of football and falling behind 19-0, they came back strong in the second half, briefly taking the lead.  Texas' strength in offense led them back, but their weakness in the secondary killed them in the end.  Texas still has an outside shot at the BCS NC, but needs some help.  They are virtually a lock for a BCS bowl game.  There is no shame in losing a road night game to a rabid #7 team, hence why they're still #4 in the BCS and 6,7 in polls.  Texas is now on the level of 1-loss teams with USC, Florida, Oklahoma St., and Oklahoma.  Lots of football left to play.

Tulsa - We knew going on the road to an SEC site would be tough for a mid-major non-BCS school like Tulsa.  It was unclear if QB David Johnson would be able to go off and bomb away against a suspect defense like Arkansas that gave up 129 pts to Alabama, Texas, and Florida.  He threw for over 300 yds and a TD, but Arkansas jumping out to a 17-0 lead was too much to overcome on the road.  BCS programs can afford to lose a game.  Non-BCS programs (except TCU) are done with a loss.

Who Loses This Week?

Texas Tech (I hate to pick against them again after missing the pick last week)
Alabama (LSU comes back strong and waylays the Tide in Baton Rouge)
Utah (One of the nation's best defenses in TCU finally puts an end to Utah's close victories)
Ball St  (Yes, this is the week Letterman's joyride comes to an end)

YES, that means there will only be 2 undefeateds after this week, and the college football world and BCS will be in shambles.  Won't it be great!?!?!  PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF!!!!