Screen Plays

Well, our first week of Fox NFL Sunday is in the books, time to get ready for Week-2. As we go along in this, my "rookie" season as host of the big shindig, I'll let you in on some of the off-screen, behind -the-scenes stuff that goes on from time to time.

Like our Week 1 show.

To say that Terry, Howie, and Jimmy were ecstatic to be back in the Fox studio for the upcoming season, compared to last year's road circus, would be an understatement. For me, after 10-years of being on the road doing games as a play-by-play guy for Fox, coupled with last year's road duties, it's a totally different experience.

What I think it does for the show is make things better because the guys can simply be themselves. They can hear each other, they can come back with the quick quips that only good friends can say to you, and they don't have to worry about being hit in the head by objects thrown from the crowd (like the basketball that beaned Howie in the Giants Stadium parking lot last fall).

A prime example was after Frank Caliendo's piece and his mock-Madden's, mock-fight with the real Bob Costas. Howie's line that "Frank just got his butt kicked by a preschooler" was priceless and fit the piece perfectly. However, I don't think that response would have come about had we been on the road with the guys struggling just to hear over the crowd, forget having time to come up with a funny line.

By the way, we get to watch every play of every game that goes on Sunday. That's what we do between the end of the pregame show and the various halftime segments that we have for each game. Anyway, the funniest line to come out while watching the games occurred during the Denver/Buffalo contest when one of the guys (who shall remain nameless) uttered the line: "Travis Henry is running today like he's got 9-mouths to feed.".

Great line, I thought.



Dump Offs
 
...I don't watch reality television (sorry bosses, never even seen American Idol). But I do know who, this week, is the NFL's Biggest Loser: Bill Belichick. He may win more Super Bowls because he's that good a coach, and his teams are usually that talented, but his mojo is gone. Win or not, his methods will always be brought into question, and that's too bad...

...I am not accusing anyone else of cheating here, let's be clear on that. However, you can't convince me that had the coach who did this been named Mike Nolan, or Mike Holmgren, or Mike Tomlin, that the vitriol from the media and other NFL people would have been the same. There's a disdain for Belichick and the Patriots that no other team comes close to meeting. As one NFL head coach told me, he wanted to see them "get it" because they are so arrogant...

...Final word on Patriot-gate: I have no problem with the punishment, because I honestly don't think it's that big a deal compared to what coaches do every day to try to gain some type of advantage. That said, how does Cowboys QB coach Wade Wilson get a 5-game suspension for breaking the rules for health reasons and Belichick get just a financial fine and the loss of 1-of-2 1st round picks next year for breaking the rules for competitive reasons? You tell me which affects the integrity of the game more...

...Hey, I can't stand her music, but is it wrong to feel sorry for Britney Spears and the mess that she has become?...

...We should all feel a bit for 49ers runningback Frank Gore this Sunday. He plans to play despite the death of his mother, Liz, after her long battle with kidney disease. Anyone who has ever lost a loved one knows how hard it can be just to function in the immediate aftermath. He has to try to do it in the public eye...

...I think that the Chargers are the most talented team in the NFL. Thus far, I know that they are the most talkative...

...The Saints offense looked awful against the Colts, there's no way that happens again this week against Tampa...

...Ditto, the Bears against the Chiefs...

...Do you think when folks in Jacksonville rushed out to get tickets to the Falcons/Jags game when they went on sale this spring they were thinking, "can't wait to see who wins that Joey Harrington-David Garrard showdown!!"

...Chad Johnson's act used to be cute...used to be...


AFTER FURTHER REVIEW

Usually, documentary films aren't high on the list of recommendations. But you will have missed out on one of the best and more fun documentaries to come about if you don't see "In The Shadow of the Moon" while it's in theaters.

It's produced by Ron Howard and is absolutely fantastic. In fact, as soon as the movie ended, my wife leaned over to me and said, "that was really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really good". Yes, it was an 8-count-"really".

It's interviews with the only living people who have actually been to the moon (with the exception of Neil Armstrong who will not do interviews), interspersed with a lot of NASA footage from the actual moon missions.

It's surprisingly funny, and the stories told by the astronauts range from hilarious, to cute, to compelling. Michael Collins, who was back in the command module while Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin were becoming the first to land on the moon, lets those of us who have always felt for him know that there was no reason to. He is definitely the star of the film, while Alan Bean adds the perfect comic relief.

Make sure you catch this movie, and catch it in the theater. The big screen makes a huge difference.

The preseason's all wrapped up. The cuts have been made. Now nothing left to do but play some football. FINALLY!

This time of year everyone always wants to know what everyone else thinks of their team. Well, since my "27 camps in 29 days" tour (turned out to be 25 camps due to weather and horrible service by the airline industry) allowed me to see the majority of teams, first hand, I thought that I'd give you my opinion on how the entire league stacks up.

It's just my opinion, and that's it.

So here we go with my ranking of teams from No. 1 (the best) to No. 32 (the worst). As you read this, keep in mind that last year, I predicted a Miami/Carolina Super Bowl. We'll see if I can do any better this time around.

1. San Diego Chargers

Reason to believe: Hands down, the best talent in the NFL.

Reason to worry: New head coach and new coordinators working together for the first time.

2. New England Patriots

Reason to believe: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, enough said.

Reason to worry: Randy Moss, enough said.

3. Chicago Bears

Reason to believe: Weapons on offense may finally equal those on defense.

Reason to worry: Offensive line beginning to age.

4.  Baltimore Ravens

Reason to believe: Willis McGahee looks like he's got something to prove.

Reason to worry:  Steve McNair starting to show his age and physical pounding he's taken.

5. New Orleans Saints

Reason to believe: Drew Brees has been near perfect in camp.

Reason to worry:  Still unsure how they're getting it done at linebacker, but they are...for now.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Reason to believe: Healthy Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, a much improved defense.

Reason to worry: Left guard Rob SIms and center Chris Spencer new starters from day one.

7. Indianapolis Colts

Reason to believe: Two words: Peyton Manning.

Reason to worry: Lost far too many players from Super Bowl team.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers

Reason to believe: Roethlisberger out to show it wasn't all Cowher and Whisenhunt.

Reason to worry: Was Big Ben's success all Cowher and Whisenhunt?

9. Philadelphia Eagles

Reason to believe: Donovan McNabb is back.

Reason to worry: Fair or not, Andy Reid's family troubles will continue to be a topic in Philly.

10. Denver Broncos

Reason to believe: Jay Cutler in year two with Mike Shanahan.

Reason to worry: Outside of Elvis Dumervil, defensive line is a huge question mark.

11. Dallas Cowboys

Reason to believe: The way Tony Romo played in his first five starts in '06.

Reason to worry: The way Tony Romo played in his final five starts in '06.

12.  Green Bay Packers

Reason to believe: Defense has the potential to be dominant.

Reason to worry: Offensive scheme built on RB and TE and right now team has neither.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

Reason to believe: Offensive starters are as solid a group as there is in NFL.

Reason to worry: Three 8-8 finishes in four years under Marvin Lewis.

14. Carolina Panthers

Reason to believe: Running game should be better under new coordinator Jeff Davidson.

Reason to worry: Dan Morgan is difference maker on defense, but can he ever stay healthy?

15. Tennessee Titans

Reason to believe: Vince Young makes everybody around him better.

Reason to worry: Haven't replaced Pacman Jones at corner, nor as a returner.

16. San Francisco 49ers

Reason to believe: Rookies Patrick Willis and Joe Staley are the real deals.

Reason to worry: Realistically, one more draft class and free agent year away.

17. St. Louis Rams

Reason to believe: As long as this coaching staff has Steven Jackson, they have a chance.

Reason to worry: Secondary will miss best player, Fakhir Brown, for 4-game suspension.

18. New York Jets

Reason to believe: Eric Mangini worked magic in 2006.

Reason to worry: It's not 2006 anymore.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars

Reason to believe: Defense too good not to believe.

Reason to worry: Cutting your starting QB a week before the season starts is not good.

20. Washington Redskins

Reason to believe: Defensive talent is back to 2004-2005 level.

Reason to worry: QB Jason Campbell missed a lot of preseason work with an injured knee.

21. Arizona Cardinals

Reason to believe: Team will be more disciplined under Ken Whisenhunt.

Reason to worry: Essentially the same defensive group that was ranked 30th last year.

22. Detroit Lions

Reason to believe: Passing game should be electric.

Reason to worry: Running game could be shockingly bad.

23. New York Giants

Reason to believe: May be deepest receiver group in team history.

Reason to worry: Anything other than a fast start and the wolves will be out in NYC.

24. Miami Dolphins

Reason to believe: Offensive-minded head coach Cam Cameron just what team needed.

Reason to worry: Could have also used some younger players on defense.

25. Cleveland Browns

Reason to believe: Talent has really been upgraded.

Reason to worry: Weeks 1-5: Pittsburgh, Cincy, at Oakland, Baltimore and at New England.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Reason to believe: Jon Gruden is desperate, and desperate coaches can be dangerous.

Reason to worry: Jeff Garcia hasn't played 16 games since 2002.

27. Buffalo Bills

Reason to believe:  Should be able to run the ball and keep games close.

Reason to worry: Must have offense keep games close, because defense will struggle.

28. Oakland Raiders

Reason to believe: Daunte Culpepper beginning to look like his old self.

Reason to worry: Lamont Jordan's inconsistent and Dominic Rhodes is out first four games.

29. Minnesota Vikings

Reason to believe: Offense should be better by the end of season.

Reason to worry: First-year starter Tarvaris Jackson will struggle. How does he handle it?

30. Atlanta Falcons

Reason to believe: Bobby Petrino seems to have done a good job of keeping team focused.

Reason to worry: It was going to be a long year with Michael Vick's talent. Without him...

31. Houston Texans

Reason to believe: Change at quarterback brings in fresh air.

Reason to worry: Don't you just feel like they'll always be the "Arizona of the AFC"?

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Reason to believe: Wait, wait...I'm still thinking.

Reason to worry: Damon Huard was a backup for 11 years for a reason.

NFC division winners: Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Seattle.

NFC wild cards: Dallas and Green Bay.

AFC division winners: Baltimore, Indianapolis, New England, San Diego.

AFC wild cards: Denver and Pittsburgh.

Super Bowl matchup:  Chicago Bears vs San Diego Chargers.

Since Super Bowl XLII is on FOX in February, I'll be there in person to see if my predictions are right. They probably won't be.  :-)

As I write this post, I've seen 21 different teams during this preseason. That means when you add together each team's offense, defense, and special teams, I've seen a total of 63-different units. I will say that without a doubt, the worst of any of those 63-units was EASILY the Buffalo Bills defense.

They can't tackle, they can't cover, they can't put pressure on the quarterback.

I guess the good news is that the Bills know it.

As one Buffalo coach told me, "we have to do everything we can to keep our defense off the field." Well, knowing you have a problem is the first step to recovery.

Last season, head coach Dick Jauron and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell somehow got this unit to overachieve. Their 10th ranking in scoring defense was a big reason why Buffalo surprised a lot of folks with a 7-9 record. Those two might have to be miracle workers for that to be the case again this year.

The losses of linebackers Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker will grab the headlines, but really, the crew is more athletic without them. They're also much more inexperienced, and for now, less talented. Maybe not for long, though.

Speaking about second-round pick, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, Jauron told me "he gets it." He's not with the first unit yet, but "he's pushing hard." That would be a major step in the right direction. Current starters Angelo Crowell, John Di Giorgio and Keith Ellison all are hard working guys who give you everything they've got. The issue is, they just don't have a lot.

Things are better up front and behind....slightly.

On the defensive line Jauron thought that his team was "pretty deep, pretty strong at the defensive end position, but now that's all changed." Starters Chris Kelsay and pro bowler Aaron Schobel (who just got a new contract potentially worth $50 million this week) are still in tact, but pass rush specialist Ryan Denny will likely miss the entire season with a broken foot. Anthony Hargrove will miss the first four games of the season due to a league suspension. Thusly, the team signed veteran Al Wallace this week just to have somebody to backup Kelsay and Schobel. Wallace is officially a seven-year veteran, but made his NFL debut 11-years ago, and has bounced in and out of the league since while working as a junior high school assistant principal.

In the secondary, the team hasn't come close to replacing departed cornerback Nate Clements. Jason Webster and Terrence McGee are the starters, but both are just holding on. The hope is that second year man Ashton Youboty can step up and take over one of those spots, but he hasn't yet. Having safeties Ko Simpson, and Donte Whitner together for a second straight season should help. At times last year, Whitner was the defense's best player despite his rookie status, and this year he could take on that title full time. Not just by default, but because he actually has a chance to be that good. But on this defense he's a rarity.

Obviously, this team is going to rely heavily on it's offense, particularly at the start of the season. But, it's not like they appear ready to carry the load.

Quarterback J.P. Losman actually seemed to get better toward the end of the season in '06. What's surprising is that even a number of the coaches don't seem to be sold that he's turned the corner. Every coach I spoke with talked about how he must become more consistent. I was told that the reason he appeared to get better late in the year was that things were made so basic for him that they were able to "hold his hand." The problem is, you can only get away with that for so long.

Watching Losman, particularly when he throws the deep ball, you can see the flashes that give the Bills hope. Losman throws as pretty a long ball as any quarterback in the league. He also may be as tough as there is as well. Going into just his second year as a full time starter there should be a little leeway for him. This is his fourth season in the league. Not to mention, Buffalo spent a third-round pick this year on Stanford's Trent Edwards. Impatience is the norm in the NFL, so the jurors out there are just about ready to make the call on Losman's making it in Buffalo.

The Bills have tried to help him as much as possible with a group of running backs that may, as a unit, be the strength of the team. First-round pick Marshawn Lynch is "100% the real deal."

"He's a good runner, and a really good receiver" according to Jauron. He even does an decent job in pass protection, although that needs to get better (as is most often the case for a rookie who wasn't really asked to do it in college). Behind Lynch the Bills have former Bear Anthony Thomas, and fourth-round pick Dwayne Wright out of Fresno State, whom the coaches like in spot duty.

The Bills feel that they've upgraded the offensive line by adding left guard Derrick Dockery, Jason Whittle (who'll most likely be the starter at right guard), and right tackle Langston Walker. We'll see. The one guy that they don't have any concern about is left tackle Jason Peters who this year could catapult himself into the company of Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden, joining the argument of "who is the best left tackle in the NFL?" Peters isn't there yet, but he's knocking on the door (along with San Diego's Marcus McNeill, by the way).

Lee Evans is a solid No. 1 receiver, the No. 2 role will be a group effort. Somehow out of Peerless Price, Josh Reed, and the speedy but small Roscoe Parrish, the Bills need to find a way to keep defenses honest in their coverages.

I don't mean this sarcastically, but the best unit on this squad is special teams. In fact, Buffalo's special teams are among the best in the league.

That may be the thing that allows Buffalo to tread water until it learns to swim. Jauron told me that this is his kind of team, one that isn't filled with stars, but guys looking to get better and a franchise looking to improve. He did a brilliant job last season in getting them to win seven games. The challenge could be tougher this season, but he seems ready for it. At least he knows what he's in for.

Without question, the best thing about this training camp tour is actually seeing teams with your own eyes and forming your own opinions based on what you see, and what you learn in talking with football people.

That may sound simple, but this time of year, lots of guesses out there are based on nothing but looking at rosters and who's back and who's not. Look, we're all guessing, and injuries or performance can quickly change a "sure thing" into an "oh-oh," and vice versa. However, you feel better about your opinion when you actually get to see things in person, how it all fits together, and more importantly how teams plan to use certain players in certain schemes.

That said, I have now had a chance to witness in person every team in the NFC North. I've already written that I believe that the Chicago Bears are the class of the division, and maybe the entire NFC (not really going out on a limb there, am I?). What I've learned by checking in with the other three teams is that: (1) I think that the teams in this division are going to be better and more competitive than a lot of people believe, and (2) whoever finishes second in the division is probably going to be good enough to make the playoffs.

So, who's No. 2 in the North?

Well, let's start with the one team that I'm sure it won't be, the Minnesota Vikings.

While I do believe that the talent in Minnesota has been upgraded, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, I think the Vikings have the farthest to go.

Yes, their defense is good, but it's not the all-world run stopper that folks made it out to be in '06. Part of the reason that they were No. 1 vs. the run (allowing less than 62 yards a game) is that they were last in the NFL against the pass, so teams didn't have to run against them. Now, that doesn't mean that they aren't a good run defense, period, because they are, they're just not great.

New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is a Tony Dungy disciple, as was the departed Mike Tomlin. We'll see if he can keep things on an upswing. He'd better, because they'll need it.

Despite having rookie running back Adrian Peterson, who is the real deal if he can stay healthy, the learning curve will be steep for the Vikes offense, led by second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was a lost puppy when thrown into things last year replacing Brad Johnson. He simply wasn't ready. This year he's more prepared, appears to be more poised, but still has a lot to learn about reading NFL defenses and playing at this level week to week. His biggest problem will be that he doesn't really have much help in the passing game.

Already, the Vikings' best receiver may be former Packer Robert Ferguson, just signed this week. That's not a ringing endorsement. Watch out as the season goes on, though for second-round pick Sidney Rice. He's big, strong, and the coaches like his ability to catch passes going across the middle.

Coming off a 6-10 record, the Vikes will be more competitive than they were in '06, but I don't think their record will be a whole lot better.

On the other hand, the Detroit Lions should be both. More competitive and have a better record.

Of course, they're coming off a 3-13 season, so it would be hard not to.

But after six years of missteps under Matt Millen, the Lions are finally marching in the right direction. Millen appeared to be blinded by talent when drafting his first five years, taking players of truly questionable character because he thought they could play football. Well, eventually a locker room full of bad/questionable guys corrupts the entire system, or in the Lions' case, doesn't help turn it around. Millen's choice of head coaches didn't help as both Marty Morninweg and Steve Mariucci weren't the kind of guys who could handle the type of guys that Millen had acquired,

Now, it's all come together. The Lions have placed a premium on character, and they have the right guy to mold it in head coach Rod Marinelli.

After you establish character, you still need talent, and the Lions have more of it than they've had in a while. I have been a fan of Jon Kitna's since we both were tooling in NFL Europe back in 1998. He showed last year that he can throw the football (more than 4,000 yards passing), but its about what he brings to a squad as a leader that impresses me most. He's got the weapons in the passing game to succeed with the addition of rookie Calvin Johnson, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft (remember, though, it takes most rookie receivers a little while to "get it" at the pro level), to Roy Williams (who led the NFC in receiving yards in '06), Mike Furrey (who led the NFC in catches last year) and Shaun McDonald (the former Ram who will be the fourth receiver, but in this offense can still put up big numbers).

The addition of Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster should make the offensive line better at pass protection than it was last year when it allowed more than four sacks a game. But they most likely will struggle in the run game. No one on the line is a great run blocker, and the running backs they have aren't the type that can cover that up. Even if Kevin Jones is able to come back full strength from foot surgery (he has yet to practice), it could be a long year trying to get anything going on the ground.

To me, the whole key to the Lions lies in the health of the defense. IF everyone is healthy, they have the makings of a very good "Tampa 2" unit.

However, staying healthy on that side of the ball seems to be the issue the last couple of years. Whether it's defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (who was just taken off the physically unable to perform list this week, and appears to be about 20 pounds too heavy), or linebackers Teddy Lehman or Boss Bailey, it always seems that one of the key guys on that side of the ball is hurt.

Rogers can be a dominant tackle when he wants to be, and Cory Redding has shown that he is something special there, too. Ernie Sims is a tackling machine at linebacker. Now, their secondary isn't made up of guys that are great at man-to-man coverage, but that's not what they're asked to do in this defense. Corners Fernando Bryant, Travis Fisher and Stanley WIlson, along with safeties Kenoy Kennedy and Daniel Bullocks, are all pretty good tacklers, which is a must in the "Tampa 2."

The Lions have the talent to make a big leap from where they were last year, and even if they don't catapult into a playoff spot, they're finally on the right road.

The team that I think has already turned the corner, though, is the Green Bay Packers.

Some folks have knocked Green Bay's four-game win streak to end the season at 8-8 as simply being a product of playing the right teams at the right time (49ers, Lions, Vikes, Bears). Well, first off, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule and the object is to win, no matter who the competition is, so I never discount victories. Secondly, when you look at this roster, there's a lot more to it than just good timing.

The Packers enter this season with a good mix of youth and veteran talent. Especially on the defensive side.

DE Aaron Kampman led the NFC in sacks with 15, and he's only in his fifth year. On the opposite side Cullen Jenkins is vastly underrated as a pass rusher and a run stopper. Having Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila as a pass-rush specialist, and inside guys Ryan Pickett and first-round pick Justin Harrell (assuming he plays like he has so far in camp) makes this arguably as good a d-line unit as there is in football.

Their linebacking unit is far behind in second-year man A.J. Hawk, third-year player Brady Poppinga and Nick Barnett, who's only in Year 5.

The worries on defense, if they have any, come in the secondary. Charles Woodson seemed to find the fountain of youth last season playing across from physical corner Al Harris, but both are in their ninth seasons and in their 30s, not usually a good place to be for that position. Free safety Nick Collins is OK., but Marquand Manuel isn't getting it done beside him, so don't be surprised to see Atari Bigby take over at strong safety.

Brett Favre turns 38 in October and wants to win one more Super Bowl (who doesn't?). I'm not sure that that type of talent is there, but he has to feel better about what he has to work with on offense than he has in a couple of years.

This offensive line started two rookies at guard and an inexperienced center last year. Not only did Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells all improve as the season went on, by the end of the year they, along with tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher,  were one of the better lines in the NFL.

Greg Jennings started out hot as a rookie wideout, until suffering an ankle injury that he never got quite right. Well, now it is. Donald Driver is a strong No. 1 receiver and now they've added rookie James Jones to the mix, and the coaches can't stop talking about him.

With Ahman Green gone to Houston, it's supposed to be running back by committee in Green Bay, but second-rounder Brandon Jackson has taken hold of the starting spot and shows no signs of letting go.

However, the search is still on for the Packers to find a fullback  and a tight end. Both these positions are vital to the offense that head coach Mike McCarthy likes to run, but they still have no answer.

Brandon Miree took over for William Henderson at fullback last year. Miree didn't set the coaches on fire, Henderson has been let go, and now they're trying guys like Korey Hall, who was a middle linebacker at Boise State.

It's my belief (100% speculation here, gang) that if they had any alternative for tight end Bubba Franks he wouldn't make this team, but as of now, they have absolutely nothing better. David Martin left for Miami, Donald Lee isn't a pass catcher, and the other TEs on the roster are seventh-round pick Clark Harris and rookie free agent Joe Werner, who hasn't played football since his sophomore year in high school and was a basketball player at Division III UW-La Crosse.

These blips are why you can see that the Packers...nor the Lions, nor Vikes...are in the same tier as the Bears. You can, however, see why I think all are better than last year, and why this division is better. Being the best of the rest of the North is no longer a bad thing. Not when the potential for all is this good. 

I used to LOVE the TV show "The Wonder Years."

I mean, every guy could relate to being the kid who was forever chasing that one girl that he just couldn't get.  We've all been Kevin Arnold at some point, just hoping to get Winnie Cooper to go out with us.

To me, the problem with the show became when Winnie finally said "yes" and went out with Kevin.  From that point on, "now what?" seemed to be the question. Where could the show go now that Kevin had finally achieved what the entire series was built on.

"Now what?"

That seems to be the position that the Indianapolis Colts are in now that they've finally won their "Winnie," better known as the Vince Lombardi Trophy. What do the Colts have left to do? What do Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy have left to prove?

"I don't look at it as I have anything to prove," Manning told me. "I just want to do the best I can for this team. In some ways we almost feel like we want to reach back and make up for some of the ones that got away back in '03 and '04."

In case you don't remember, '03 was the year that Manning was NFL co-MVP with Steve McNair. The Colts finished 12-4 before losing the AFC Championship game in New England. '04 was Manning's 49-touchdown season, another 12-4 mark and another playoff loss at the Patriots in the divisional round..

Ironically, it's those two disappointing seasons, or more specifically the year after each of those disappointing seasons, that the Colts believe will help them handle being this year's defending champs.

"We've done a real good job of coming back from past playoff losses and had quick starts the next season," Dungy said. "We've been able to put the past in the past as soon as the following year begins."

"We've done a good job of coming back from tough finishes to seasons and been able to put it behind us the following year," Manning echoed before adding, "plus, it's not fair to the young guys in here for us to keep talking about last year and living in the past. I know that when I was a rookie I wanted the veterans to be as excited as I was about this NFL thing and (be in) the here-and-now."

With (1) rookie Tony Ugoh replacing retired all-pro left tackle Tarik Glenn, (2) rookie Anthony Gonzalez taking Brandon Stokley's spot as the slot receiver, (3)  second-year man Freddy Keiaho filling in for the departed Cato June at outside linebacker, and (4 & 5) Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden the new starting corners in place of both Nick Harper and Jason David, the young guys will be a big part of the 2007 version of the Colts. It remains to be seen if they can live up to the 2006 model.

All those changes and we haven't even mentioned the loss of Booger McFarland at defensive tackle for the season with a knee injury.

A lot of change for a team wanting to get to the Super Bowl, not to mention one wanting to get back there. But Dungy and Manning truly believe that in this case, change is good.

"I think it is," Dungy stated, "because guys don't come in thinking, 'we've got the same bunch of guys, so we just pick up from February 4th and go from there."

Manning added, "Yeah we've lost a lot of players, a lot of good players. But we've lost guys before and been able to keep going. We've got young guys in Ugoh and Gonzalez, but we've still got Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dwight Freeney in here, too."

And that's why when you're around Indy you don't sense any worry. They feel that they are still talented, and more importantly, that they have done the work that it takes to still be a championship-caliber team. In fact, Dungy told me that in preparation for going through a year in which they are officially "the team to beat," he went back over notes from his old Super Bowl-winning coach Chuck Noll. He also spoke with Lions head coach Rod Marinelli, who was on his staff in Tampa and stayed on to win Super Bowl 37 as a member of Jon Gruden's, about the challenges ahead. He even chatted up San Antonio Spurs forward Bruce Bowen, a 3-time NBA champ, so that he could be as ready as possible.

What he learned was that "you try to do the same things you did before. Don't take it any easier, don't work them any harder".

I have no doubt that Dungy, Manning and most of the Colts will be as prepared as any team in the league. What I'm not sure about is the talent level on this team. While all of the changes may keep the team from becoming complacent, I don't think that the team is as competent on the field.

The players they lost were good players, but I think the fact that they are at key positions hurts them even more when it comes to having young guys take over. They've got one new starter on the defensive line, one at linebacker, two in the secondary. Tough for a defense to come together with new faces at each level.

Manning told me that the young guys on offense have worked hard, and they ask the right questions, so he knows that they understand their respective roles. He also believes that Joseph Addai is going to have, quote, "a phenomenal year" as both a runner and pass catcher.

All of this sounds great, but once this team hits the field there's no debating that they aren't as talented overall as the team that won it all last season. I also believe that the other teams in the AFC South are catching up, as well.

It would be foolish to sit here in August and say that the Indianapolis Colts are done because they are talented, and they have come back time and time again when counted out. But it's also foolish not to understand that with the level of success they've now achieved, anything short of another Super Bowl championship will be a disappointment.

THAT is a high watermark.