Without question, the best thing about this training camp tour is actually seeing teams with your own eyes and forming your own opinions based on what you see, and what you learn in talking with football people.
That may sound simple, but this time of year, lots of guesses out there are based on nothing but looking at rosters and who's back and who's not. Look, we're all guessing, and injuries or performance can quickly change a "sure thing" into an "oh-oh," and vice versa. However, you feel better about your opinion when you actually get to see things in person, how it all fits together, and more importantly how teams plan to use certain players in certain schemes.
That said, I have now had a chance to witness in person every team in the NFC North. I've already written that I believe that the Chicago Bears are the class of the division, and maybe the entire NFC (not really going out on a limb there, am I?). What I've learned by checking in with the other three teams is that: (1) I think that the teams in this division are going to be better and more competitive than a lot of people believe, and (2) whoever finishes second in the division is probably going to be good enough to make the playoffs.
So, who's No. 2 in the North?
Well, let's start with the one team that I'm sure it won't be, the Minnesota Vikings.
While I do believe that the talent in Minnesota has been upgraded, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, I think the Vikings have the farthest to go.
Yes, their defense is good, but it's not the all-world run stopper that folks made it out to be in '06. Part of the reason that they were No. 1 vs. the run (allowing less than 62 yards a game) is that they were last in the NFL against the pass, so teams didn't have to run against them. Now, that doesn't mean that they aren't a good run defense, period, because they are, they're just not great.
New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is a Tony Dungy disciple, as was the departed Mike Tomlin. We'll see if he can keep things on an upswing. He'd better, because they'll need it.
Despite having rookie running back Adrian Peterson, who is the real deal if he can stay healthy, the learning curve will be steep for the Vikes offense, led by second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was a lost puppy when thrown into things last year replacing Brad Johnson. He simply wasn't ready. This year he's more prepared, appears to be more poised, but still has a lot to learn about reading NFL defenses and playing at this level week to week. His biggest problem will be that he doesn't really have much help in the passing game.
Already, the Vikings' best receiver may be former Packer Robert Ferguson, just signed this week. That's not a ringing endorsement. Watch out as the season goes on, though for second-round pick Sidney Rice. He's big, strong, and the coaches like his ability to catch passes going across the middle.
Coming off a 6-10 record, the Vikes will be more competitive than they were in '06, but I don't think their record will be a whole lot better.
On the other hand, the Detroit Lions should be both. More competitive and have a better record.
Of course, they're coming off a 3-13 season, so it would be hard not to.
But after six years of missteps under Matt Millen, the Lions are finally marching in the right direction. Millen appeared to be blinded by talent when drafting his first five years, taking players of truly questionable character because he thought they could play football. Well, eventually a locker room full of bad/questionable guys corrupts the entire system, or in the Lions' case, doesn't help turn it around. Millen's choice of head coaches didn't help as both Marty Morninweg and Steve Mariucci weren't the kind of guys who could handle the type of guys that Millen had acquired,
Now, it's all come together. The Lions have placed a premium on character, and they have the right guy to mold it in head coach Rod Marinelli.
After you establish character, you still need talent, and the Lions have more of it than they've had in a while. I have been a fan of Jon Kitna's since we both were tooling in NFL Europe back in 1998. He showed last year that he can throw the football (more than 4,000 yards passing), but its about what he brings to a squad as a leader that impresses me most. He's got the weapons in the passing game to succeed with the addition of rookie Calvin Johnson, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft (remember, though, it takes most rookie receivers a little while to "get it" at the pro level), to Roy Williams (who led the NFC in receiving yards in '06), Mike Furrey (who led the NFC in catches last year) and Shaun McDonald (the former Ram who will be the fourth receiver, but in this offense can still put up big numbers).
The addition of Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster should make the offensive line better at pass protection than it was last year when it allowed more than four sacks a game. But they most likely will struggle in the run game. No one on the line is a great run blocker, and the running backs they have aren't the type that can cover that up. Even if Kevin Jones is able to come back full strength from foot surgery (he has yet to practice), it could be a long year trying to get anything going on the ground.
To me, the whole key to the Lions lies in the health of the defense. IF everyone is healthy, they have the makings of a very good "Tampa 2" unit.
However, staying healthy on that side of the ball seems to be the issue the last couple of years. Whether it's defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (who was just taken off the physically unable to perform list this week, and appears to be about 20 pounds too heavy), or linebackers Teddy Lehman or Boss Bailey, it always seems that one of the key guys on that side of the ball is hurt.
Rogers can be a dominant tackle when he wants to be, and Cory Redding has shown that he is something special there, too. Ernie Sims is a tackling machine at linebacker. Now, their secondary isn't made up of guys that are great at man-to-man coverage, but that's not what they're asked to do in this defense. Corners Fernando Bryant, Travis Fisher and Stanley WIlson, along with safeties Kenoy Kennedy and Daniel Bullocks, are all pretty good tacklers, which is a must in the "Tampa 2."
The Lions have the talent to make a big leap from where they were last year, and even if they don't catapult into a playoff spot, they're finally on the right road.
The team that I think has already turned the corner, though, is the Green Bay Packers.
Some folks have knocked Green Bay's four-game win streak to end the season at 8-8 as simply being a product of playing the right teams at the right time (49ers, Lions, Vikes, Bears). Well, first off, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule and the object is to win, no matter who the competition is, so I never discount victories. Secondly, when you look at this roster, there's a lot more to it than just good timing.
The Packers enter this season with a good mix of youth and veteran talent. Especially on the defensive side.
DE Aaron Kampman led the NFC in sacks with 15, and he's only in his fifth year. On the opposite side Cullen Jenkins is vastly underrated as a pass rusher and a run stopper. Having Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila as a pass-rush specialist, and inside guys Ryan Pickett and first-round pick Justin Harrell (assuming he plays like he has so far in camp) makes this arguably as good a d-line unit as there is in football.
Their linebacking unit is far behind in second-year man A.J. Hawk, third-year player Brady Poppinga and Nick Barnett, who's only in Year 5.
The worries on defense, if they have any, come in the secondary. Charles Woodson seemed to find the fountain of youth last season playing across from physical corner Al Harris, but both are in their ninth seasons and in their 30s, not usually a good place to be for that position. Free safety Nick Collins is OK., but Marquand Manuel isn't getting it done beside him, so don't be surprised to see Atari Bigby take over at strong safety.
Brett Favre turns 38 in October and wants to win one more Super Bowl (who doesn't?). I'm not sure that that type of talent is there, but he has to feel better about what he has to work with on offense than he has in a couple of years.
This offensive line started two rookies at guard and an inexperienced center last year. Not only did Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells all improve as the season went on, by the end of the year they, along with tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, were one of the better lines in the NFL.
Greg Jennings started out hot as a rookie wideout, until suffering an ankle injury that he never got quite right. Well, now it is. Donald Driver is a strong No. 1 receiver and now they've added rookie James Jones to the mix, and the coaches can't stop talking about him.
With Ahman Green gone to Houston, it's supposed to be running back by committee in Green Bay, but second-rounder Brandon Jackson has taken hold of the starting spot and shows no signs of letting go.
However, the search is still on for the Packers to find a fullback and a tight end. Both these positions are vital to the offense that head coach Mike McCarthy likes to run, but they still have no answer.
Brandon Miree took over for William Henderson at fullback last year. Miree didn't set the coaches on fire, Henderson has been let go, and now they're trying guys like Korey Hall, who was a middle linebacker at Boise State.
It's my belief (100% speculation here, gang) that if they had any alternative for tight end Bubba Franks he wouldn't make this team, but as of now, they have absolutely nothing better. David Martin left for Miami, Donald Lee isn't a pass catcher, and the other TEs on the roster are seventh-round pick Clark Harris and rookie free agent Joe Werner, who hasn't played football since his sophomore year in high school and was a basketball player at Division III UW-La Crosse.
These blips are why you can see that the Packers...nor the Lions, nor Vikes...are in the same tier as the Bears. You can, however, see why I think all are better than last year, and why this division is better. Being the best of the rest of the North is no longer a bad thing. Not when the potential for all is this good.