Addiction is a disease.

That point has been hammered home to me on a million occasions by my mother who is one of this state's greatest experts on the topic of addiction.  It is just as malignant as cancer and just as much of a handicap as a traditional physical disability.  Many people dismiss this because addiction is something one brings upon one's self, they believe addicts deserve the penalties they incur and compassion is at the bottom of their emotions when they hear of a story like Chris "The Birdman" Andersen.

For those who did not see it on the bottom of the ESPN scroll, or read it in their Sunday paper, the "Birdman" became the first person since Stanley Roberts in 1999 to fail an NBA administered random drug test.  That's saying something.  In a league that is known for its extreme life style--tattoos, gangsta attitude--no one has been caught partaking in a hard partying activity in seven years.  Unlike Major League Baseball's style of looking the other way, the NBA has actually held their players accountable.  Each player is called to participate in testing at random times four times each year, and while leeway is still given for "performance enhancing" drugs, a posititive test for recreational drugs comes with an automatic two year (minimum) ban. 

To put that penalty into perspective, Ron Artest stormed in to a crowd of paying customers and received a 73 game suspension.  Latrell Spreewell threatened to kill, then choked Coach P.J. Carlesimo for telling him to make crisper passes during practice.  An arbitrator ruled that Spreewell's suspension could only amount to one month.  At minimum, Chris Andersen's drug abuse suspension will last twice as long as a player who assaulted fans and attempted murder on his coach combined.  Most players who run askew of the league's drug policy, however, never return.

Now that he is gone, it might be important to understand who "The Birdman" was.  As a player, the guy was hardly an all-star.  For the season, he was averaging about five points and five rebounds coming off the bench to spell P.J. Brown, and for his five year career on both the Nuggets and Hornets for that matter.  He had a tenacity about him, though, that made him stand out.  Despite playing less than twenty minutes a game, he led the team in blocks (1.3) and made plenty of hustle plays that made up for his inability to make easy shots or his tendency to be foul prone.  On a national scale, he is likely most known for his embarrassing turn in the all-star weekend slam dunk contest last season.  After boasting prior to the event that it was "time for 'The Birdman' to fly," he failed to even make a dunk.  Nonetheless, his early departure put him in the public eye.

It was that hammy attitude that made him a fan favorite for the Hornets.  Despite his minor role on the team, the Hornets P.R. department made him a key part of the marketing campaign to ingrain them in Oklahoma City.  In a series of billboards introducing the team's coach, Bryon Scott, and the team's best player (Chris Paul), the third board went to a role playing post player.  If they had not taken that step, he still would have stood out.  "Birdman" sightings were a common occurence in OKC.  Anyone who went out to a bar was likely to spot the tall, tatted up white guy with hippy hair at some point during the night.  He liked the spotlight and he liked creating his persona.  While sitting out with a minor injury around the Thanksgiving holiday, Andersen took the free time to call season ticket holders and thank them for their support.  He came up with a catch phrase, which he also trotted out on the P.A. system at halftime of their Thanksgiving eve outing, sounding like Matthew McCognehey in Dazed and Confused, "At Thanksgiving dinner, stick to the ham, lay off of the Biiird."

It was this catchphrase that brought Andersen's name to my family's Thanksgiving table.  My cousin, who is a New Orleans transplant, loved that phrase.  Personally, I tend to dislike puns, so I rolled my eyes about it.  This cousin continued to laud what he liked about "The Birdman."  I told him that I liked what he did on the floor, but he just seemed like a guy who was always high, which at the time I meant as a joke.

Obviously, it was not a shock to me to learn that Andersen did have a drug problem.  Since guys like Damon Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony have been busted by the police for having marijuana with no penalty from the NBA, it had to have been something stronger.  The list of narcotics the league does test for seem to suggest it was either cocaine, meth, acid, or prescription pain medications.  Certainly, the man needs help.

The typical response from the average fan is going to be disbelief that someone could throw their life away for something as worthless as drugs.  "He gave up twelve million dollars just so he could get wasted?" they will wonder.  If it was all about logic, that would be a relevant observation.  Logic is the last thing involved in a drug addiction.  If logic was involved, no one would ever ingest anything addictive.  Ask any Alcoholics Anonymous participant if they wanted to throw their life away with a debilitating addiction, and see what response you get.

It may have been ignorance or arrogance that got Andersen started.  Regardless, some mental defect told him that he wanted to try the drug, but that he would not let it get control of him.  Now the addiction controls him.  Obviously, it could not be bought off with luxuries only society's elite enjoy.  Now, hopefully, being informed his crime was twice as bad as Ron Artest will convince him to get the help he needs.  As my mother will tell me, though, he has to want to get better.  History says he will not.  The drive to return to basketball was not enough to get Stanley Roberts straight.  Seven years later he has never played another game.  Before him, Roy Tarpley and Richard Dumas failed.

So, I hope I am proved wrong and speaking about Chris Andersen in past tense was a mistake.  But for the time being, so long "Birdman"

In stark contrast to the Indiana/Sacramento trade two days ago that amounted to mutual benefit, yesterdays Boston/Minnesota trade was entirely lopsided.  It appears that Danny Ainge managed to find that Celtic Pride still residing in Kevin McHale's heart and exploited it to improve his team at the expense of the T-Wolves.

Breakdown:

salary data from www.hoopshype.com, statistics from www.espn.com

Celtics receive -

Wally Szerbiak (signed thru 2009 currently making $10MM) - 6'7" SG/SF - 20.1ppg, 40.6% 3pt

Michael Olowokandi (final year making $5,949,570) - 7'0" C - 6.0ppg, 5.6rpg, 23mpg

Dwayne Jones (signed thru 2007 making $398,762) - 6'11" C - playing in NBDL

Conditional 1st Round Pick (terms undisclosed)

Timberwolves receive -

Ricky Davis (signed thru 2008 currently making $5,908,500) - 6'6" SG/SF - 19.7ppg

Mark Blount (signed thru 2010 currently making $5,512500) - 7'0" C - 12.4ppg, 4.2rpg, 27mpg

Marcus Banks (final year making $1,724,280) - 6'2" PG - 5.5ppg, 1.8apg

Justin Reed (final year making $641,748) - 6'8" SF - 2.3ppg

Two second round picks

From a statistical standpoint, it looks like a wash.  From a managerial standpoint, the Celtics cleaned up. 

For full disclosure, I am not a fan of Ricky Davis' in any way shape or form.  To me, he is one of those players that looks good on paper, but when you watch him play, he frustrates you.  Last year when he was no better than the third best offensive weapon for the Celtics, he was the one who became selfish down the stretch.  It is hard to be more selfish than Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker, but Davis managed.  By doing so, he shot the Celts out of many winnable games while the team's top two offensive threats spectated.  The best anecdotal evidence of Davis' personality came when he was bringing the ball up the floor and actually turned around to fire a shot at the opposing team's basket so he could rebound it and secure a triple-double.  For some reason, Minnesota attempted to sign him away from Cleveland a few summers ago, and maintained their interest enough to give up their # 2 scoring option and take on an albatross of a contract to get him.

Speaking of that albatross contract, I introduce you to Mark Blount.  Blount was a life long bench warmer who managed to put together a few good performances down the stretch of his contract season.  The Celtics made the mistake of taking that as a sign of things to come instead of the obvious indication of a player being motivated in hopes of a big payoff.  Now he makes starter money with reserve talent and will continue to do so for the next five years.  Explain to me why a guy who is seven foot tall and plays more than half the minutes of a game can only grab four rebounds a game.  It makes no sense.

The other two players given up by the Celts are players in the final year of their contract who likely would have been given walking papers at the end of the season.  Ainge fell in love with Marcus Banks as the point guard of the futurue, and traded up to draft him.  Banks has never developed into an even suitable floor general, then Delonte West and even second round pick Orien Greene have usurped him in much less time as pros.  Banks is likely the third string point in Minnesota now behind Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson.  Justin Reed is a good defender, but limited otherwise.

It is unclear how Kevin McHale felt pulling the trigger on this deal would make the team better.  Davis upgrades the team defense at the three, and perhaps he felt a strong personality like Kevin Garnett could keep him in line on offense.  (Latrell Spreewell did well for a while under that premise.)  However, the team no longer has any outside shooters now that both Szerbiak and Fred Hoiberg are gone.  Opposing defenses will sag down in the lane making life difficult for both K.G. and Davis.  Kandi for Blount robbed them of some rebounding, and the team will likely be without a first round pick for the seventh time in a decade withholding another chance to draft a player who can develop to be K.G.'s sidekick.

While Wally Szerbiak is not a great defender, he upgrades the Celtics perimeter threats.  While Davis and Paul Pierce possessed the same skill sets (with Pierce being much better), Szerbiak is a yin to Pierce's yang.  Pierce will slash to the basket, Szerbiak will find an open spot for when "The Truth" gets double teamed to make a jump shot.  If the defensive lapses become a problem, the Celtics always have Tony Allen who is a great defender in the wings.

The Olowokandi and Jones pick-ups are of little significance to the trade.  Olowokandi will most likely end up as a free agent within the next few weeks if the Celtics cannot immediately trade him.  A contract buyout is likely on the way so that their promising young post player, Al Jefferson will see more playing time.  More importantly, they ridded themselves of a bad contract with five years remaining in return for a player whose salary will come off the cap this Summer, and opening up an immediate roster slot.  There is probably room on the Celts roster now to add Jones and see what he can do, and possibly get Gerald Green back from the D-league and on the floor.

In a word:  both.

The Indiana Pacers have been criticized for dragging out the Ron Artest drama, but in the end, it appears it was for the franchises best.  Rarely does a trade make so much sense.  Even rarer does something involving Ron Artest make sense.

As a franchise, the Kings are back sliding.  At the height of the Kobe/Shaq empire, Sacramento was the only team that gave the Lakers a decent test.  The group dynamic of that team quickly dissipated, though, as Vlade Divac was asked to move on, Chris Webber was traded, Mike Bibby's development regressed after signing a huge contract extension (surprising how that works), and the team just became complacent, in general.  What the team needed, more than anything, was a shake up.

Shake ups can happen in multiple ways.  There is the gradual shake up, more like an aggitation--think stirring a paintcan, which the Kings have arguably been going through since building to challenge the Lakers.  Obviously, that was not working.  Then there is the rapid shake up, think elementary school boy getting ahold of his classmates soda can while the kid is not looking, and nothing can assure an explosion like acquiring Ron Artest.  Either he will come in as a good soldier, give the team a top-15 league talent, and assist them in challenging again...or he will be a problem child, make the team rue his arrival, and make them headlines for anything but their poor performance.  Either way, the status quo of mediocrity disappears.

For the Pacers, this is an addition by subtraction, sure.  Artest had worn out his welcome.  However, more important than getting him out of the clubhouse is that the team filled their most glaring weakness (outside shooting) with the best outside shooter in basketball.  Getting Peja Stojakovic on the floor will open things up for the rest of the team.  Jamal Tinsley will be able to drive, Jermaine O'Neal can post up, and...well, Stephen Jackson can do whatever it is he does that supposedly makes him valuable.  Peja gives the team the outside threat they lost when Reggie Miller retired.  Now teams cannot collapse inside the lane without fear of retribution.  That will be huge.

Apparently, David Stern told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he still sees the Hornets as New Orleans' team.  The AP article, which was written by someone who I think supports the team's return to New Orleans can be read without commentary here, but my rebuttals (in italics) to the article are going to be included below:

When they were losing or playing other struggling teams, the Hornets found it a struggle to sell tickets in New Orleans, where even today there are so many other renowned entertainment options, from fine dining, to music clubs to carousing on Bourbon Street.

It was not just when they were losing or playing other struggling teams.  The Hornets never finished better than 29th in league attendence in New Orleans.  Granted, the season the team made the playoffs was the one season the team did not finish at the very bottom.

 Two season ago, the Hornets even struggled to sell out first-round playoff games, although a couple of those games coincided with both a PGA tournament and the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival, one of the largest and most popular music festivals in the world.

What kind of excuses are those?  NBA games are typically played after dark, PGA events usually end prior to sunset.  Even so, how much of those fanbases intersect?  The Daily Oklahoman has made a huge deal about the Hornets competing with other basketball games in this state.  Even when Oklahoma State and OU are playing, the Hornets still draw.  Is this writer trying to say that NBA basketball cannot succeed against non-basketball competition...and in a tourist trap like New Orleans, should that not be a concern?

 Attendance in Oklahoma City this season is up by more than 4,000 per game from the 14,221 average the Hornets reported in New Orleans last season. However, the NBA is a novelty in Oklahoma, the Hornets are winning much more and ticket prices for a number of comparable seat locations have been lowered by around 40 percent.

That's fair in a way.  Last season, the Hornets were among the worst in the league.  The team is a novelty in Oklahoma, and the team is winning--just as they were in New Orleans during the 2003-2004 season.  They had just moved from Charlotte, they were a playoff team, and the New Orleans fanbase supported them to the tune of 14,332 fans per game.  That means an extra 111 people showed up on any given night when there was hope for a win AND it was new to them.

1.  At least one Cuban player will defect during the tournament.

It seems to happen everytime the team leaves the country.

1a.  That player will attempt to get citizenship in South America before attempting to play in the United States.

The player could certainly seek assuylum in the U.S., but why would he want to leave a system of diminished freedoms to enter the MLB draft system of diminished freedoms?

2.  A Major League player will be hurt during the tournament. 

Law of averages.

2a.  The media will seize on this as a reason the tournament was a mistake.

Law of averages.  It will be the most sensational spin on the story, so it will be the main spin on the story.

3.  Several players who play in the tournament will get off to hot starts once the regular season begins.  Several players who play in the tournament will get off to slow starts once the regular season begins.

Some players come out of Spring Training hot, others cold.  There is no reason to expect any different after the WBC.

3a.  The media will suggest that their participation in the Classic was why (Player) got off to a (hot/cold) start.

See 2a.

4.  When a participant in the Classic goes down to injury during the pennant race, the media will decry that said participation caused the injury.

See 2a.

5.  When a non-participant of the Classic goes down to injury during the pennant race, the media will not mention this when discussing the injury in Prediction # 4.

See 2a.

6.  A few non-MLB players will make a huge impact in the tournament.

This I base on the "something to prove" theory.  These will be the proverbial "David's" to the Classic's MLB star "Goliath's."  With a World's stage to prove themselves on, some will seize the opportunity to become international names.  See 7 & 8 for why this will be made easy for some.

6a.  There will be a huge bidding war to sign these players, and the Yankees will acquire at least one.

These guys will already have the status the Cuban defector will be seeking.  As international players, they will be free agents rather than draft eligible players.  Having performed well against the "world's best", several teams will think these players are the kind of difference-makers they need to get to or win the World Series.  The Yankees seem to always get into these battles.

6b.  Most of these players will fizzle out in the minors.

What many of these teams will forget is that the Classic is over a limited time.  Some players get into hot streaks they cannot ever duplicate.  There have been times where September call-ups have smashed a few homers, and then when that got them an invitation to Spring Training, it showed to be a fluke.  Unfortunately for the teams, the guys in this WBC will be free agents going to the highest bidder, and capitalizing on their flukish performances.

7.  Many of the biggest names in the tournament, particularly those on the U.S. roster, will dissappoint.

Kind of the opposite of the "something to prove" theory.  The big names tend to come into Spring Training out of shape and apathetic.  My guess is that most of the big stars, will not go out of their way to show up for the Classic in player's shape.  See 8 for why.

8.  Several big names will bow out of the tournament with "injuries."

Even with huge contracts and major objectives for the upcoming season, players do not condition themselves to play an entire 162 game schedule.  Now, adding an extra twenty games without paying them any extra...doesn't sound like a formula for eager participation.

9.  The Dominican team will score a lot of runs, but give up even more.

The Dominican Republic has a team that could dominate slow pitch softball league.  From top to bottom of their batting order will be players who rank among the greatest sluggers at their position.  Unfortunately for them, baseball is made up of many different facets.  The most important is likely pitching, and with the exception of Pedro Martinez (whose participation will be limited by strict pitch counts), they do not have a great starter (unless Bartolo Colon is cleared to play--doubtful) and a thin bullpen.  Defensively, they will be giving up a lot.

10.  The United States wins.

While most of the star power of the MLB will be distributed thoughout the world, the U.S. still possesses an uneven division of such.  The Dominican will have a better batting order, Venezuela will have more dominant pitching, and Puerto Rico will have superior defense.  In a Classic that I predict will be characterized by players defering for minor ailments and players mailing-in performances, and pitchers being limited in how much they can participate, the U.S. will have the greatest benefit...depth.