I'm a dork. Under no circumstances do I deny this. That being said, I analyzed every first round games using statistical trends from previous tournaments and came up with the following games as the most likely to have the higher seeded team win:

 OAKLAND BRACKET

2 UCLA vs 15 Belmont

Belmont showed promise early, but apparently stopped playing with about 25 minutes of game left on the clock.

 ATLANTA BRACKET 

None

MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET

4 Boston College vs. 13 Pacific

BC won, but it took them two OT's

5 Nevada vs. 12 Montana

Montana pulled it off.

7 Georgetown vs. 10 Northern Iowa

WASHINGTON D.C. BRACKET

2 Tennessee vs. 15 Winthrop

Curtis Lofton's miracle shot with .4 seconds prevented this one.

4 Illinois vs. 13 Air Force

Air Force looked good early, but ran out of steam when Illinois' patriotism ran out.

7 Wichita State vs. 10 Seton Hall

Blew that one!  Wichita State owned that game from the tip off.

 6 Oklahoma vs. 11 University Wisconsin - Milwaukee

While the OU/UW-Milwaukee game didn't meet the criteria to hit my upset watch, it wasn't by much. For an eleven seed to meet the standard, they must score 75 points per game and have a point differential of greater than 6 points for the season. UMW won games by an average of 7.8 points, but only averaged 74 points per game. Apparently, it isn't a perfect system.  I actually did pick UW-M to win this game in my bracket and took them as my "Cinderella" in the side pool.

7 Marquette vs. 10 Alabama

A ten seed is most likely to pull off an upset if they have not gone to the tournament for more than three consecutive seasons and if their coach has been to the tournament less than five times.  Mark Gottfried is coaching in his sixth NCAA tournament and Alabama is a fixture in the tournament.  The Crimson Tide tried to stick with the trend, but Marquette could not capitalize down the stretch.

5 Syracuse vs. 12 Texas A&M

The indications that a 12 seed is a good candidate for an upset are that the team played in the prior year's tournament and that the team's scoring is frontcourt heavy (55-75%).  A&M is in their first tournament since 1987 and approximately 53% of their scoring comes from the frontcourt.  Oddly enough, I convinced my wife that Syracuse would be a likely first round loser because of what happened last week in the Big East tournament.  My reasoning was that Gerry McNamara's (who she calls McNamoron) head got so large due to all of the media love he received that he would confuse it with the basketball leading to turnovers.  Then, I ran the numbers and advanced the Orangemen to round 2 on my own bracket.  Now who's the McNamoron?