Yesterday: 1 - 1

Overall: 193.8 - 188

NBA (92 - 77)

Grizzlies at Blazers (-7.5): In the two games since Damon Stoudamire and Mike Miller went down with injuries, the Grizzlies have scored 87 and 88 points against teams with relatively poor defenses (Suns and Lakers).  The Grizzlies managed to prevail at the Lakers on Tuesday night, but they're only 5-12 ATS after a win.  On the other hand, the Blazers have won four of their last five games ATS (3-2 SU), and their only ATS loss during this stretch came on the road against the Bulls on Tuesday night when Brandon Roy was out in order to attend his child's birth.  Roy will be back tonight, and the steadily improving Blazers should be able to easily handle the league's worst team.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS against the Grizzlies in their last six meetings.

Yesterday: 3 - 0

Overall: 192.8 - 187

NBA (91 - 76)

Magic (-2.5) at Celtics: The Magic have won three of their last four games SU and ATS.  That includes road wins over the Heat and Knicks, and a home win over the Nets.  Their only loss came at Toronto, and the game was close (85-92).  The Magic have also been efficient in their last five games, as they've shot a 44.7 FG%, while allowing a 39.5 FG%.  Although the Magic's road record is only 16-20 ATS, the Celtics are terrible at home (10-24-1 ATS).  Also, the Celtics have lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, and their efficiency numbers are bad over their last five games (41.4 FG% on offense and 46.2 FG% allowed on defense).  Moreover, the Magic have won the last three meetings betweent these clubs SU and ATS.

Rockets (-2) at Clippers: The Rockets are 20-15 ATS on the road, and they've won eight of their last ten games SU (6-4 ATS).  Although the Rockets are playing on only one day of rest, they're 21-13-1 ATS in those situations.  Meanwhile, the Clippers have also been playing well lately, as they've posted a 7-1 ATS mark in their last eight games, and they enter tonight's game on a four-game winning streak.  The Clippers haven't played since Saturday, but a lot of rest doesn't bode well for them, as they've gone 2-4 ATS on 3+ days' rest this year.  That might be due to the fact that the Clippers depend on Cuttino Mobley and Corey Maggette, who are notorious streak shooters, and they might get out of their rhythm after a long layoff.  Also, streak shooting is the main reason why the Clippers have been playing well, as they've been shooting a 48.8 FG% in their last five games, including an insane 48.1% from three-point range.  That percentage on three-pointers can't last, as the Clippers are bound to soon endure a couple of cold shooting nights from the perimeter.

Yesterday: 1 - 3

Overall: 189.8 - 187

NBA (88-76)

Cavs (-2) at Pacers: The Pacers have gone 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) after an awful 11-game losing streak, during which they were 2-9 ATS.  Their recent improved play coincides with the return of Jermaine O'Neal to the lineup, but they've been helped by the fact that the opposition has only been shooting a 40.8 FG% in their last five games, including 21.7% from three-point range.  Considering the Pacers' overall play this year, it's hard to say that they've suddenly learned how to play team defense in the last five games.  Instead, it appears that they've been a bit lucky to catch cold-shooting teams.  Speaking of cold, the Cavs have only shot 42% in their last five games.  They've lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, and this follows a stretch where they went 10-0 ATS.  Shooting percentages tend to even out over time, and the Cavs are overdue for a hot-shooting night, while the Pacers' are overdue for allowing one.  Also, the Cavs can handle the Pacers, as they beat them 99-88 on March 11. 

Mavs (-6.5) at Hornets:  In the Mavs' last five games, they've shot a 51.8 FG%, while allowing opponents to shoot only 39.9%.  Those are efficiency numbers similar to Georgetown in the NCAA.  Even though I just said above that these types of statistics even out over time, they seem more valid for a dominant team like the Mavs who have consistently played great team defense over the course of a season.  Meanwhile, the Hornets have been shooting a 49.9 FG% over their last five games, while allowing a 49.5 FG%.  The Hornets have also been playing in high-scoring contests, so these numbers reflect the fact that lots of easy baskets have been scored in transition.  The Mavs have a terrific transition defense, so it'll be hard for the Hornets to replicate their offensive success in this one.  Also, the game means a lot for the Mavs, as they're looking to sweep this six-game road trip.  And even though the Hornets beat the Rockets on Sunday, they're just 15-16 ATS following a win, while the Mavs are 33-21-3 ATS in the same situation.  The Mavs have played the Hornets three other times this year, and they've beaten them by double digits in each contest (average margin of victory: 12.3 points).  Note: Dirk Nowitzki's been experiencing flu-like symptoms, so check his status before wagering on this game.  If he's out, the line should shrink by 2.5 points.

Grizzlies at Lakers - Under 221: The Grizzlies have been a high-scoring team this year, but they'll be missing two of the main parts of their offensive engine: shooting guard Mike Miller and point guard Damon Stoudamire.   Without them last night, the Grizzlies could only muster 86 points at the Suns, who play at one of the fastest paces in the league.  With Junior Harrington starting at point guard and forward Terance Kinsey replacing Mike Miller, the Grizzlies had to move 6'9" Rudy Gay to shooting guard.  This unfamiliar look and reduction of talent prevents the Grizzlies from finding their offensive rhythm.  Meanwhile, the Lakers have averaged 114 points in their last four games, but those have been against teams that push the tempo: Timberwolves, Grizzlies (before the Miller and Stoudamire injuries), Hornets, and Warriors.  The Lakers should use this game against the hapless Grizzlies to fine tune their defensive deficiencies.  Don't expect it to go over 220 points.  Also, get on this line now, as it's already dropped two points from the opening line of 223.

Yesterday: 3 - 2

Overall: 188.8 - 184

NBA (87 - 73)

Raptors (-3) at Celtics: The Celtics are 3-7 SU in their last ten games (5-5 ATS), but they've lost three in a row SU and ATS.  Also, they've shot a paltry 42.1 FG% while allowing a 48.3 FG% in their last five games.  Most importantly, the Celtics are an awful 9-24 ATS at home.  Meanwhile, the Raptors have been shooting well in their last five games (46.7 FG%), and they've allowed only a 43.9 FG%.  Also, they're 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six games, and they've posted a 19-15 ATS mark on the road this season.

Wizards at Jazz (-7.5) - Over 213: The Wizards have lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, as they've continued to struggle with Caron Butler out.  Even though the Jazz have lost seven straight games ATS, they beat the Grizzlies by ten points on Saturday night, nearly covering the 11-point spread.  The Jazz' recent losing streak has caused them to lay fewer points, which creates some value, as the streak was mostly the result of a cold shooting stretch.  Also, the point total should go over 213 tonight.  The Wizards have scored 100+ points in six of their last seven games, and they've allowed 100+ points in their last five games.  Moreover, the Wizards have allowed a 47.8 FG% over that time span, and the Jazz showed on Saturday night that they can expose a poor defense.  The total has gone over in six of the last seven Wizards' games.  Even though the Jazz had played under the total for seven straight games until they combined with the Grizzlies to score 226 points, the Jazz should continue their offensive outburst tonight because of the Wizards' weak defense. 

Spurs (-4.5) at Warriors: The Spurs won 120-79 at Seattle last night, and the blowout afforded them an opportunity to rest their starters.  Tim Duncan led the team in minutes with 29, as no one played over 30 minutes.  Meanwhile, the Warriors are coming off a close loss to the Lakers in which all of the starters played over 31 minutes.  Monta Ellis led the team with 41 minutes off the bench, and Andris Biedrins also logged over 40 minutes.  Although the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with Baron Davis in the lineup, they've been playing poor defense in their last five games (46.4 FG% allowed).  On the other hand, the Spurs have been playing great defense over that time period (42.9 FG% allowed), so the Warriors could have trouble scoring tonight.  Also, the Warriors are just 7-12 ATS when playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

Yesterday: 3 - 1

Overall: 185.8 - 182

College Basketball (100.8 - 109)

Oregon (+7.5) vs. Florida: Oregon enters this Elite Eight matchup on a nine-game win streak SU, and they're 8-1 ATS over that span.  Meanwhile, Florida has failed to cover the spread in their last two games, as their players don't appear to care until the chips are down with a few minutes to go.  Possibly because they've already tasted the glory of a national championship, some of the fire appears to be gone from the Gators' squad.  If that's the case against Oregon, then super-athletic guards Tajuan Porter and Aaron Brooks could take advantage.  Florida's best players are big men, and they won't be guarding the 5'6" Porter and 6'0" Brooks.  Oregon needs to make some early three pointers in order to force Florida's Al Horford and Joakim Noah away from the paint, and that will leave the lanes open for penetrating drives later in the game. 

Georgetown (+4) vs. North Carolina: The Hoyas and Tar Heels have the same offensive FG% (50.3), but the Hoyas play better defense, as they allow a 38.3 FG%, while North Carolina gives up a 41.1 FG%.  Georgetown's one of the few teams that can actually matchup with North Carolina's top scorers, Tyler Hansbrough (6'9", 235 lbs) and Brandon Wright (6'9", 205 lbs).  7'2" Roy Hibbert will be assigned to contain Hansbrough, and 6'8" Jeff Green will try to handle Wright.  Georgetown's 12-5-1 ATS on the road, while North Carolina's just 10-10 ATS away from home.

Parlay Special - Oregon (+320) and Georgetown (+160): Both teams have a great chance of winning, and this pays out 10-1.

NBA (85 - 72)

Suns (-6.5) at Kings: The Suns have won four of six SU and ATS, and they're 20-13 ATS on the road.  Meanwhile, the Kings have lost seven of their last eight games SU and ATS, and they lost by 18 points at Phoenix on Thursday night.  Also, the Kings are just 13-19-1 ATS at home, and they'll likely be missing Brad Miller for the rest of the year due to a foot injury.  The Kings have given up on the season, so they'll have problems matching the Suns' tempo.

Pistons (-5) at Bucks: With Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut both out for the rest of the year, the Bucks are no longer a strong play.  They've lost four of their last five games ATS, as they concentrate on preparing for next year.  On the other hand, the Pistons are 22-13 ATS on the road, and they've won eight of their last nine ATS.

Warriors (+4) at Lakers: The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games ATS, and the only ATS loss came with Baron Davis out of the lineup.  The Warriors have also shot 50.6 FG% in their last five games, while allowing opponents a 45.3 FG%.  On the other hand, the Lakers have shot slightly worse (49.5 FG%) and allowed a slightly higher FG% (47.8) over that same time period.  Also, the Lakers are just 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine games.  Kobe Bryant's hot streak is inflating the Lakers' value right now.