Yesterday: MLB: 2 - 3.1

MLB (47.1 - 33.2)

Red Sox (Matsuzaka) -150 at Blue Jays (Chacin): This line is going to be up to -170 or -180 by the first pitch, so take advantage of it now. I'll be back with more picks and analysis later, but I wanted all of my readers to jump on this valuable pick before the public increases the odds throughout the day...If you're now reading this for the first time, the line is now at -160. Hit it now. Matsuzaka has been very good in his two starts this year: 14 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 14 K. His loss to Seattle last Wednesday can be explained by the fact that opposing pitcher Felix Hernandez was lights out, and there was a lot of pressure on Matsuzaka: it was his first game at Fenway, and he happened to be facing Japanese icon Ichiro Suzuki. Matsuzaka also has an advantage tonight due to Toronto's injury-depleted lineup. Starters Troy Glaus and Reed Johnson are both on the disabled list. Closer B.J. Ryan is also out, which alters everyone's respective roles in the bullpen. Blue Jays' starter Gustavo Chacin has been just okay against the Red Sox' batters in their 144 plate appearances against him: .277 BA, .347 OBP, .385 SLG. David Ortiz has two homers in 24 ABs versus Chacin, who has given up six runs in 11 innings so far this year.

Padres (Maddux) -120 at Cubs (Miller): Wade Miller didn't pitch well in his only start of the year (vs. Milwaukee on April 8): 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2003, when he posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 187.1 IP. Meanwhile, Greg Maddux has been sharp so far in 2007: 11.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. Only five of the Cubs' batters in the lineup today have faced Maddux enough to develop any significant trends. If you average their numbers, they have a .292 BA, .330 OBP, and .357 SLG against the future Hall of Famer. That's not terrific, but the Padres should be able to put enough runs on the board against Miller to get Maddux the win.

Pirates (Gorzelanny) at Cardinals (Wainwright) -1.5 runs (+125): Last night, the Pittsburgh Pirates got their second win in two years at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will try to prevent the Pirates from taking the second of a two-game set this afternoon. Pittsburgh will send southpaw Tom Gorzelanny (1-0, 1.50) to the hill versus the hard-throwing Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.98). Although Gorzelanny had a great outing against the Cardinals last Tuesday, he failed to factor in that decision and will need to pitch very carefully today to avoid the dangerous bats of Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen. The slow start of Pujols has probably influenced the public's opinion of the Cardinals in a negative way. Against a lefty like Gorzelanny, Pujols could be in for a feast. Wainwright has been solid through 13.2 innings this year, going at least six innings in both starts, and he has a nice history of stopping the Pirates' most dangerous hitter, Jason Bay (0-for-4 against Wainwright).

Mets (Glavine) -120 at Phillies (Garcia): Glavine's been very good in his three starts this season: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Against the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell have had success, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled. Rollins has an amazing six homers in just 66 at-bats against Glavine, and Burrell has gone deep four times in 63 at-bats. On the other hand, both Utley and Howard have hit below .200 against Glavine. For the Phillies, Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled in his career against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Glavine's the safe pick in this one, as Garcia could struggle in his first game back.

Braves (Smoltz) -1.5 runs (-130) at Nationals (Williams): Continuing with the trend of picking the Big Three Aces from the 1990s Braves' teams, I'm taking John Smoltz, who pitched well in a loss to the Nationals last Thursday: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB. Ryan Zimmerman and Austin Kearns are the only regulars in the Nationals lineup who have had success against Smoltz; everyone else is near or below the Mendoza line (.200 BA). The Braves only scored one run on five hits last night, and that offense is too good to stay in a slump for long. Opposing pitcher Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP.

Rangers (Tejeda) +130 at White Sox (Garland): The White Sox have been struggling offensively, and it won't help that their regulars have never faced Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda was terrific against the Red Sox before laying an egg last week against the Devil Rays, but it's tough for hitters to face a pitcher with good stuff for the first time. And the Rangers could score a lot of runs off of White Sox starter Jon Garland, as cleanup hitter Mark Teixeira has absolutely owned him. Teixeira has 15 hits in 34 at-bats against Garland, and ten of those hits have gone for extra bases (four homers and six doubles). When looking at Garland's career numbers, his excellent 2005 (3.50 ERA, 1.17 wHIP) seems to be an abberration. And even though he won 18 games last year, he posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Marlins (Mitre) vs. Astros (Oswal) -1.5 runs (even): Marlins' starter Sergio Mitre is the poster boy for the theory that expansion has diluted the pitching talent in baseball. In 172.2 IP at the major-league level, Mitre has a 5.91 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. So far this year, he hasn't shown much improvement: 11 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 4 BB. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt is coming off of a gutsy win at Philadelphia, in which the ace braved windy conditions and lots of cheap hits. Oswalt allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he deserved the win considering that any other pitcher would've given up at least ten runs in the same situation.

Giants (Cain) -110 at Rockies (Hirsh): Rockies' starter Jason Hirsh has begun the year well: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 11 K. But he's never pitched at Coors Field, and his first two starts came in pitching parks (at San Diego and at LA). Meanwhile, Matt Cain has been absolutely filthy this season: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 10 K. The walks need to go down, but as long as hitters can't make solid contact against him, Cain should be able to pitch well in even the toughest hitters' parks. Also, the Giants' offense has been hot lately, so Cain should finally be able to earn a much-deserved win tonight.

Angels (Weaver) at A's (Gaudin) Even: Although the Angels and the Athletics both have 6-7 records, the Halos have been in a total tailspin lately, losing 4 in a row. During the Boston series, the Angels were outscored 25-3. When Vladimir Guerrero was plunked yesterday on the wrist by a Josh Beckett fastball, the Angels not only lost their best hitter overall, but the one hitter on their squad who has more than one hit off tonight's A's starter, Chad Gaudin. Guerrero should remain sidelined for at least the next couple of days, leaving the Angels high and dry without their number-one run producer. In the noisy confines of McAfee Coliseum, Gaudin will have the support of the boisterous Oakland fans. Gaudin has performed well in place of the injured Esteban Loaiza, throwing 10.2 innings while allowing only 3 ER and 8 hits. In that same span, Gaudin has accumulated an impressive 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Angels will counter with the fragile Jered Weaver, who will be making his first start of the year after opening the season in the DL with tendinitis in his right biceps. Weaver had an impressive rookie campaign last season (11-2, 2.56), but will probably be a little rusty tonight as he gets himself re-acclimated to facing big-league hitters.

Twins (Ortiz) -110 at Mariners (Weaver): One glance at Jeff Weaver's line from this year is enough to tell you he's horrible, but how bad is he really? Well, through two innings of work, he's been pounded to the tune of seven hits, seven runs and one walk. Allow me to remind you that this is through two innings. Twins' hitters Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter (.455 against Weaver) must be chomping at the bit to get a piece of Weaver. Tonight, 33-year-old veteran Ramon Ortiz will get the ball for Minnesota. The Twins must love what Ortiz has done in his first two outings, throwing 15 innings while allowing only three runs. Keep in mind that Ortiz accomplished this task in part versus one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, as he limited the Yankees to three hits and one run in eight innings. If Ortiz can perform like this against New York, he should be able to match the feat against the Mariners' miserable offense.

Yesterday: MLB: 1 - 5.3

MLB (45.1 - 30.1)

Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes.

Braves (James) -1.5 runs (-110) at Nationals (Williams): In 11 IP in 2007, Chuck James has only given up one run on 11 hits and four walks. He's won both of his starts, including one against the Nationals on April 11, when he held them to five hits in six innings. James is looking to continue his successful 2006 campaign, when he posted the following stats en route to an 11-4 record: 119 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Meanwhile, Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. Note: Matt Chico is now starting for the Nationals.  He's given up 14 hits and three walks in just 8.2 IP, so the Braves are still the pick.  But you might have to lay -120 or -130 odds.

Royals (Greinke) at Tigers (Verlander) -1.5 runs (even): The Royals have faced Justin Verlander 70 times, and they haven't been able to make good contact: .172 BA, .243 OBP, .219 SLG. That includes only three extra-base hits (all doubles). So far this season, Verlander hasn't given up a run in 13 innings. Although Royals' starter Zack Greinke has begun the year well, he's had trouble in his career against Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe, and Ivan Rodriguez.

Mets (Maine) -110 at Phillies (Garcia): Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Meanwhile, John Maine has shut down the Phillies in their 86 plate appearances against him: .237 BA, .322 OBP, .395 SLG. But Maine is looking to rebound from last week's start against the Phillies, when he surrendered six walks in just 4.2 IP. Maine should be fine, though, as walks weren't a big issue for him last year, when he posted a 1.13 WHIP in 90 IP.

Brewers (Capuano) -120 at Reds (Milton): Brewers' starter Chris Capuano has gotten off to a so-so beginning to the 2007 season: 10.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 5 ER, 10 K. But the real reason for this pick is Eric Milton's poor performances at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark: 31 starts, 178 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Milton struggled in his first start this year, giving up ten hits in 5.2 IP.

Marlins (Sanchez) Even at Astros (Rodriguez): Sanchez completely shut down the Astros in his start against them last year, as the current Astros went 1-for-15 against him, and their only hit was a single. In 2006, Sanchez posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.19 wHIP in 114.1 IP. On the other hand, Wandy Rodriguez had bad numbers last year: 124.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. In the Marlins' 28 plate appearances against Rodriguez, they have a .400 BA, .552 OBP, and .750 SLG.

Yesterday: MLB: 3.1 - 2.4

MLB (44.1 - 24.8)

Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes. Note: Game postponed due to rain.

Devil Rays (Seo) at Twins (Bonser) -1.5 runs (+120): Jae Seo's been pretty awful this year: 9.1 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 10 ER. And he wasn't too much better last season: 157 IP, 5.33 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. That WHIP is ominous, as it means that Seo's allowing more than three baserunners every two innings that he pitches. In the Twins' 99 plate appearances against Seo, they have a .315 BA, .369 OBP, and .533 SLG. Meanwhile, Boof Bonser had a rough start against the Yankees last week, but that followed a very good performance to start the year. In 19 plate appearances against Bonser, the Devil Rays have a .263 BA, .263 OBP, and .474 SLG. Granted, that's a limited sample size, but Bonser's numbers from last year suggest that he's a lot better than Seo: 100.1 IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.

Brewers (Sheets) -110 at Cardinals (Looper): In his first year as a major-league starter, former reliever Braden Looper has only allowed ten hits, four walks, and three runs in 13 innings. But he's had trouble against Milwaukee in their 66 plate appearances against him: .328 BA, .409 OBP, .397 SLG. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets has handled the Cardinals well in their 308 plate appearances: .257 BA, .297 OBP, .414 SLG. Sheets is hoping to return to his 2004 form, when he posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 237 IP. Injuries set Sheets back the last two years, but the word is that he's finally healthy and ready to re-emerge as a top-notch NL pitcher. Also, Sheets is pitching on seven days' rest, which is usually a good thing for a power pitcher.

Reds (Lohse) at Cubs (Lilly) -1.5 runs (+140): In 80 plate appearances against the very mediocre Kyle Lohse, the Cubs have a .481 BA, .500 OBP, and .896 SLG. That's almost laughable. So far this year, Lohse has allowed 16 hits and six runs in 13.1 IP. But that doesn't count all the fat pitches that hitters have just missed on. Last season, Lohse had a 5.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 126.2 IP, so there's not much hope for improvement as the season progresses. On the other hand, Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been surprisingly effective this season: 13 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 14 K. And he's been good in the Reds' 55 plate appearances agaisnt him: .212 BA, .250 OBP, .327 SLG. Also, because of Lilly's stint in the AL, most of the Reds haven't seen much of him. A lefthanded pitcher usually has the advantage in those situations.

Yankees (Pettitte) at A's (Harden) -110: 25-year-old Rich Hrden appears poised to have a breakout year after last year's injury-shortened season. In 13 IP this year, Harden's allowed eight hits, four walks, and two runs, while striking out 13 batters. All signs are that he's regained the form of 2005, when he posted the following numbers in 128.1 IP: 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 43 BB, 121 K. Staying healthy is Harden's big task this year, but as long as he's at full strength, he's one of the best pitchers in the league. On the other hand, Andy Pettitte's been a bit uneven this year. In his first start against Tampa Bay on April 5, he allowed six hits and three walks in just four innings of work. But he bounced back in a win over the Twins last week, as he allowed only four hits and a walk in six innings. Pettitte's coming off of a subpar 2006 in which he posted a 4.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 214.1 IP for the Astros, and there's a question whether those numbers will continue to go up now that he's switched back to higher-scoring AL.

Giants (Cain) -waiting on line- at Pirates (Armas): In 67 plate appearances against Tony Armas, the Giants have rocked him: .355 BA, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. Armas struggled in a loss to the Reds in his only start of this season, as he gave up eight hits, five walks, and six runs in just four innings of work. Armas' numbers from last season don't offer any hope for improvement in the near future: 154 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, Giants' starter Matt Cain has one of the best young arms in baseball. In his limited matchups against the Pirates, he's given up six hits in their 18 ABs, but only one went for extra bases (a double by Pirates' pitcher Zach Duke). In 13 IP this year, he's allowed six hits, six walks, and four runs, while striking out ten. Last year, Cain pitched 190.2 innings in his first full season as a major leaguer, and he posted the following stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 179 K, 87 BB. The walks are a bit worrisome, but Cain's got such nasty stuff that it's hard for opposing offenses to bring the free passes around to score. Also, Cain's numbers were better in the final two months (3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), indicating that he's improving as he gains experience. Note: Game postponed due to rain.

Rangers (McCarthy) -105 at Mariners (Ramirez): AL West rivals, the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners, will play the rubber-match of their three-game set this afternoon. Today's Mariners' starter, Horacio Ramirez, was the recipient of a mulligan during his first outing of the season versus the Cleveland Indians. In that game, which was eventually snowed out, Ramirez pitched four innings while walking six and allowing four runs. Things would have been much worse for Horacio had he not been the beneficiary of three inning-ending double plays. As far as today is concerned, when you have a mediocre pitcher on a team that hits an AL-worst .214 and has the second worst ERA in the AL (4.79) playing against a lethal Rangers offense, you start to see the value in the Rangers' -105 line. Ramirez has never faced the Rangers as a starter and he will have to figure out a way to deal with Texas' 2B Ian Kinsler, who has eight hits, including three homers, in his last 19 AB's. Brandon McCarthy will toe the slab for the Rangers. McCarthy has done fairly well in his previous appearances versus Seattle serving as a relief pitcher and will look to duplicate his last outing against Tampa Bay, where he threw six innings, striking out five and allowing only two earned runs. This line is a bit surprising and there is good value on the Rangers today.

Padres (Young) -110 and Dodgers (Wolf): Tonight's ESPN game of the week features NL West rivals, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams are 7-4 and tonight's game could determine who is leading the division, should the Diamondbacks lose to the Rockies this afternoon. The Padres will give the ball to Chris Young (1-0, 2.13 ERA), and the Dodgers will counter with Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.75 ERA). Young will attempt an incredible feat in tonight's game as he will be going for his 26th straight win on the road, which would be a new major-league record. Tonight will mark Wolf's first start against San Diego since 2003. He will need more than luck on his side facing Padres' slugger Adrian Gonzalez and the rowdy Giles brothers, Marcus and Brian. If this game ends up being close and going late, the Padres have a big advantage in that their bullpen has been next to unhittable this year. San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman has baffled the Dodgers for years, as they've managed only 21 hits 108 AB's (.194) against him, with 14 of those hits being singles.

Yesterday:

MLB: 4.4 - 2.5; NBA: 1 - 1

MLB (41 - 22.4)

Reds (Arroyo) at Cubs (Hill) -130: In his only start so far this year, young lefthander Rich Hill pitched seven strong innings, allowing only one run on one hit, while striking out six and walking none. Although he didn't have good numbers during his first call-up of 2006, once he came back for a second time, he posted the following stats in August and September: 76.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.58 ERA, 78 K, and 21 BB. In fact, his numbers were even better in September than in August, which shows that Hill continues to improve as he becomes comfortable in the majors. Even though Reds' starter Bronson Arroyo is a good pitcher, he doesn't have Hill's superstar potential. Arroyo allowed four runs on eight hits in a loss to the Cubs on April 4, and he could have a down year after pitching 240.2 innings in 2006. Last year was the best of Arroyo's career, but that could be attributed to the fact that he was switching leagues, and lots of hitters were seeing him for the first time.

Astros (Williams) at Phillies (Hamels) -1.5 runs (+110): 23-year-old Cole Hamels has dominated the Astros' hitters so far in his brief career: 44 plate appearances, .075 BA, .156 OBP, .100 SLG. This year, Hamels has only given up ten hits and three walks in 13 IP, while striking out 15 batters. Also, Hamels seemed to get adjusted to the major-league level at the end of last year, as he posted the following numbers in August and September: 69.1 IP, 55 H, 19 BB, 76 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. On the other hand, 40-year-old Woody William is on the downside of his career, and he's had a tough time with the Phillies' hitters in their 120 plate appearances against him: .313 BA, .339 OBP, .443 SLG. If the windy conditions persist in Philadelphia, the Phillies should have a big offensive day.

Rangers (Padilla) -110 at Mariners (Batista): Neither pitcher has done well against the opposing batters, but Padilla has had moderate success at Safeco Field in two starts: 12.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER. Although he's given up two homers at Safeco, this is the best park for Padilla's pitching style, as hitters don't get cheap blasts here. Padilla started off the season poorly against the Angels, but he rebounded with seven strong innings against the Red Sox last Sunday. Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Miguel Batista got bombed against Oakland in his only start of the year on April 4: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER. Batista is coming off of a poor 2006 for Arizona, in which he pitched 206.1 innings with a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. If he gives up that many baserunners in the AL, his ERA will be stratospheric by the end of the season.

Marlins (Olsen) +120 at Braves (Davies): Scott Olsen's won both of his outings this year, but he's given up nine walks in 10.1 IP. That would be worrisome, but Olsen's track record suggests that walks won't be a big problem as the season progresses. In 2006, he gave up 75 BB in 180.2 IP, but he also struck out 166 batters. In 61 plate appearnces against Olsen, Braves' hitters have a .273 BA, .340 OBP, and .636 SLG. That's not very good, but the Marlins have been even better against Braves' starter Kyle Davies in their 49 plate appearances: .405 BA, .500 OBP, .857 SLG. Although Davies had a good outing against the Mets on April 8, he needs to string together a couple of good starts before he'll be deemed reliable. In 2006, Davies posted an 8.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 63.1 IP.

Giants (Zito) -120 at Pirates (Armas): In 67 plate appearances against Tony Armas, the Giants have rocked him: .355 BA, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. Armas struggled in a loss to the Reds in his only start of this season, as he gave up eight hits, five walks, and six runs in just four innings of work. Armas' numbers from last season don't offer any hope for improvement in the near future: 154 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, Giants' starter Barry Zito has also struggled this year, but his career stats are much better than Armas', and I expect Zito to have a good game against a Pirates' squad that's never seen the lefthander. Also, Zito should get some run support today, as the Giants' offense woke up last night against Zach Duke.

Brewers (Suppan) at Cardinals (Wells) -130: Kip Wells has done well in his career against the Brewers' hitters, as they've posted the following stats in 200 plate appearances: .208 BA, .319 OBP, .312 SLG. In 13 innings this year, Wells appears to have rebounded nicely from an injury-plagued 2006, as he's only allowed six hits and five walks, while striking out 14 batters. With Dave Duncan's pitching expertise guiding the righthander, Wells could be returning to the form of 2003, when he posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 197.1 IP for the Pirates. Meanwhile, Jeff Suppan has been good against the Cardinals' batters in his career: .253 BA, .294 OBP, .445 SLG, but those numbers pale in comparison to Wells' performance against the Brewers. Suppan has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up 15 hits, four walks, and six runs in 13 innings. Even though Suppan was a World Series hero last year, he wasn't actually all that great during the regular season: 190 IP, 4.12 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP.

Padres (Peavy) -120 at Dodgers (Schmidt): 25-year-old Jake Peavy hasn't dominated the Dodgers' batters in his career, but he's had moderate success in their 245 plate appearances: .268 BA, .318 OBP, .487 SLG. So far this year, Peavy's been terrific, as he's allowed only one run, eight hits, and four walks in 13 IP. Peavy wasn't very good during the first four months last year, but that could be attributed to a tired arm that developed as a result of the World Baseball Classic. In 2005, Peavy had a 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 216 K in 203 IP, and he appeared poised to become the elite pitcher of the next ten years. Peavy has regained that form, so it's tough not to take him when you're only laying -120 odds. 34-year-old Jason Schmidt isn't as tough a test as you'd think, as Schmidt hasn't pitched well against the Padres' hitters in their 264 plate appearances: .316 BA, .404 OBP, .589 SLG. Plus, Schmidt has given up ten hits, three walks, and four runs in just nine innings of work this year. Schmidt left his last start after his hamstring tightened up on him, and he now says that it was just a dehydration cramp. But we won't know if there's actually a lingering injury until we see him today. If he's favoring that leg at all, the Padres are going to bomb him. Also, Schmidt's been a bit uneven in the last couple of years. In 2005, he had a 4.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 172 IP, but he rebounded in 2006 to post a 3.59 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 213.1 IP. 2006 happened to be a contract year, so we'll see how Schmidt performs after getting "fat and happy" in the off-season.

Yesterday:

NBA: 1 - 0; MLB: 1 - 0 - 1

MLB (36.6 - 19.9)

Reds (Harang) +140 at Cubs (Zambrano): Carlos Zambrano has begun the year by walking seven batters in 12 IP. That continues a disturbing trend, as Zambrano walked 115 batters in 214 IP last year, which was 29 more walks than he gave up in 2005, when he pitched nine more innings. Perhaps because Zambrano's defense has often failed him, he seems to be trying to strikeout every batter, as opposed to pitching to contact. That's a recipe for disaster in the longterm. Also, Zambrano hasn't had much success against the current crew of Reds' batters: .270 BA, .374 OBP, and .558 SLG in 262 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Aaron Harang's coming off of two straight solid seasons, and he's won both of his starts this year. In 107 plate appearances against Harang, Cubs' hitters have posted a .231 BA and .257 OBP.

Giants (Ortiz) at Pirates (Duke) -150: Russ Ortiz only gave up three runs in five innings against the Dodgers last Saturday, but he surrendered seven hits and three walks. That's a 2.00 WHIP, and he'll get bombed this year if that doesn't come down. But there's no reason to think it will, as Ortiz went 0-8 with an 8.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP last season. His numbers weren't all that much better in 2005, when he was 5-11, 6.89 ERA, and 1.84 WHIP. Meanwhile, Zack Duke appears poised to have a breakout year, as he's only allowed 14 hits and one walk in 13 IP. If Duke can hold the Giants' weak offense to three runs or less, the Pirates should be able to score enough runs off Ortiz for the win.

Astros (Oswalt) -110 at Phillies (Myers): Today's Astros-Phillies game features two struggling teams searching for a way to get some momentum going. The Astros send their number-one starter, Roy Oswalt, to the mound as he attempts to reach a big personal milestone, his 100th win. Brett Myers, the Phillies' ace, is simply looking for his first win of the season. Both of these pitchers have performed well against the opposing teams' hitters. Oswalt's main objective this evening will be cooling off the scorching-hot Jimmy Rollins, who has already knocked 5 HR. Myers' biggest nemesis on the Astros is Lance Berkman, who has managed 2 HR and 6 RBI in 16 career AB's. The Astros will be going for their third win in a row tonight, while the Phillies are searching for their first home win. Behind the unshakable Oswalt, Houston has an excellent chance of taking the first of a three-game set.

White Sox (Vazquez) -110 at Indians (Carmona): Javier Vazquez allowed one hit and four walks in 6.2 IP in a win over the Twins last Saturday, and he's posted good numbers against the Indians' hitters in his career: .226 BA, .314 OBP, .372 SLG in 152 plate appearances. On the other hand, Indians' starter Fausto Carmona has yet to learn how to consistently get big-league hitters out. Carmona had a 5.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 74.2 IP in 2006, and he was awful against the White Sox batters: .364 BA, .436 OBP, .667 SLG in 38 plate appearances.

Marlins (Willis) -110 at Braves (Redman): Last year, lefty Mark Redman had his worst year in the majors, as he posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. And he didn't look too good in his first start this year, as he gave up nine hits and a walk in 5.2 IP in a loss to the Mets. Meanwhile, Dontrelle Willis has been pitching well as he attempts to regain his form from 2005, when he won 22 games. Walks were a bit of an issue for him last year, but in two starts this year (both wins), he's only walked three, while striking out 12 batters. If Willis can keep up a 4/1 K/BB ratio, he'll have a big year.

Brewers (Sheets) -120 at Cardinals (Reyes): The Brewers and Cardinals, both 5-4, will open a three-game series tonight if "Mother Nature" cooperates. However, there is a good chance that they'll be playing a double-header tomorrow, as the forecast in St. Louis is calling for a 100% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the evening. Ben Sheets will get the ball for Milwaukee and although he's struggled against the Cardinals in the past, he should be able to turn things around tonight. The Cardinals will be without starting third-baseman Scott Rolen, who is sidelined with back spasms. The Brewers' offense will face an unproven pitcher in Anthony Reyes, who is searching for his first win of the year. Look for Milwaukee to put an end to St. Louis' four-game winning streak tonight behind the bat of Geoff Jenkins, who is hitting .364 with 3 HR through nine games. It's worth nothing that Jenkins has dominated Reyes in their previous meetings, hitting .444 with 3 HR against the flat-brimmed-hat pitcher.

Rockies (Fogg) at Diamondbacks (Webb) -1.5 runs (+115): It's the start of an NL West showdown tonight, as the Colorado Rockies open a three-game series at Chase Field versus the division leading Diamondbacks.  30-year-old righty Josh Fogg gets the start for the Rockies.  Fogg has had major problems facing D-Backs third-baseman Chad Tracy, who owns an impressive .588 batting average, a ridiculous 1.353 slugging percentage and 4 HR in his career against the inconsistent pitcher.  Reigning NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb will take the ball for Arizona.  Only two Rockies, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, have had success against Webb in the past.   Fortunately for Webb, they are both off to slow starts this season, combining for a paltry .269 average with only five extra-base hits (all doubles) and zero HR.  Look for Arizona's ace to lead his team to their eighth win tonight, as Colorado simply doesn't have the firepower to compete with the D-backs' balanced lineup.

NBA (114-92)

Pacers at Heat (-6.5): The Heat have lost four straight games ATS (2-2 SU), but they haven't been at full strength due to the absence of Shaquille O'Neal in the last two. With Shaq back and Dwayne Wade getting back into his rhythm, the Heat should be working on all cylinders as the playoffs approach. Meanwhile, the Pacers are fighting for the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they're only 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. They're also just 4-9 ATS against above-.500 opponents on the road.

Nuggets (+1.5) at Hornets: The Nuggets have won seven straight games (5-2 ATS), and they're 23-14-1 ATS on the road, which includes a subset of 12-6 ATS on the road against sub-.500 opoonents. In the last five games, the Nuggets have shot a 46.4 FG%, while allowing opponents to shoot 43.7%. That's better than the Hornets, who have shot a 44.1 FG%, while allowing a 46.1 FG% over the same span. But the Hornets have managed seven straight ATS wins (5-2 SU), and they've played their last three games without Tyson Chandler and Desmond Mason, both of whom are likely done for the season. However, these injuries are going to catch up to the Hornets, as they'll struggle against the Nuggets without Chandler's rebounding and Mason's scoring. In the last meeting between these clubs on March 6 in Denver, the Nuggets won, 106-91.