Before analyzing the one-on-one matchups, the big question is what type of gameplan Avery Johnson will use to beat the Suns. A slow-down game could be a bad idea because the Mavs aren't suited to playing a half-court offense on a consistent basis. They just don't have the low-post player (e.g., Tim Duncan) to do it effectively. On the other end of the spectrum, if the Mavs try to run with the Suns, they would be playing right into Mike D'Antoni's scheme. Nash runs better than any other point guard in the league, so Avery certainly shouldn't do that. Thus, the best method is a mixture of styles, which has suited the chameleon-like Mavericks all year. They can run, they can slow down, and they can play tough perimeter defense. Avery should go with a traditional Mavs' lineup with Desagana Diop starting at center, instead of going small with forward Keith Van Horn. Diop can use his long arms to contest the Suns' drives to the basket, while lightning-quick Devin Harris chases guards Leandro Barbosa and Raja Bell on the perimeter. When the Suns miss shots, the Mavs shouldn't be afraid to run. But when the Suns go through phases where they're shooting lights out (and it will happen), the Mavs should slow the game down to a crawl. At these points, the Mavs should have Diop (or Dampier) and Nowitzki as their only presence on the offensive boards, while the guards and Josh Howard get back on transition defense. Speaking of offensive boards, that's going to be one of the keys in this series. If the Mavs can consistently get second-chance opportunities, it won't matter if the Suns shoot 55 percent. The Mavs need to be confident that they can win the game shooting as low as 40 percent as long as they are grabbing offensive rebounds. The one caveat is that they can't go for the offensive boards at the expense of transition defense because catching an opponent out of position is Nash's game. Thus, Avery has a major balancing act on his hands, and there should be even more on-the-fly adjustments than we saw in the series against the Spurs. Individual Matchups: Point guards: Terry will probably start out on Nash since Harris is better utilized guarding the Suns' perimeter players. But if Terry has problems containing Nash' drives, Avery shouldn't hesitate to sub in Darrell Armstrong. Armstrong struggled against the Spurs' Tony Parker, but Nash isn't as quick as Parker, so Armstrong could draw some offensive fouls, especially if Nash wears down. Shooting guards: Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa are average players who love to shoot the wide-open three-pointer. Thus, the key to stopping them is to contest their shots. Harris is going to get a workout in this series, but he's young and should be up to the task. The Mavs struggled with their perimeter defense when Harris was out of the lineup during the second half of the season, so his performance will be a key to the Mavs prevailing in this series. Forwards: There really isn't much of a difference between "small forward" and "power forward" on the Suns, so I'm handling the positions together. Both Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas like the perimeter, but Marion's also the Suns' most dangerous slasher. Josh Howard's going to have his hands full with Marion, but his long arms might be the perfect antidote for Marion's awkward jump shot (it begins at chest level, so Howard could get some blocks). Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki can keep Thomas in check. On the other end, the Suns have no answer for Dirk, who should continue to drive to the basket and draw fouls. Once the Suns are in foul trouble, they'll have to play even softer than usual; otherwise, D'Antoni will be forced to dip into a mediocre bench as his top players foul out. Centers: Diop and Dampier should be able to prevent Boris Diaw from doing anything in the interior, but that's really not an issue since Diaw is a 6-8 forward who plays like a guard; of course, only in D'Antoni's weird scheme would such a player be starting at center. Whoever draws Diaw needs to be wary of his passing abilities. Thus, if the ball goes into him, the Mavs' can't abandon their defensive assignments. Diaw's the reason why Avery might be playing Van Horn instead of his centers, but that would be a mistake that plays into the Suns' hands as the Suns could have a problem matching up against Dampier if the Mavs decide to get some offensive output from him in this series. I know that sounds ridiculous since Dampier hasn't done anything offensively in his two years with the Mavericks, but he has been able to produce in the past. If Dampier can exploit his mismatch against the Suns' defense by averaging 10-12 points per game, the Mavs would have the interior offensive presence that they'll occasionally need to slow down the Suns' runs.

As I was trying to figure out how the Mavs are going to matchup against the Suns, I found this little gem from Suns' head coach Mike D'Antoni: "All we have to do is outshoot them four out of seven," D'Antoni said. "We don't have to do it every night." That pretty much sums up D'Antoni's coaching philosphy and the Suns' style. It also reveals why the Suns will never win an NBA championship as long as D'Antoni and point guard Steve Nash are captaining the squad. Was D'Antoni living in a hole during the Mavs' playoff failures from 2001-2004? Under Don Nelson, the Mavs used a run-and-gun style that befit Nash's game. The high energy that's required to sustain the pace consistently wore Nash down to the point where tired legs and a sore back prevented him from consistently hitting his jumpshot. And when Nash was no longer a scoring threat, defenses honed in on his penetrating drives, as Nash had difficulty dishing the ball to teammates for open looks. Making matters worse, Nash was a defensive liability, and the Mavs made no effort to compensate for this deficiency. Instead, Nelson foolishly thought that he could outshoot the other team. Well, D'Antoni and Nelson are right on one account: they can win games by relying on the jumpshot. But when you're playing a championship-caliber team that emphasizes perimeter defense, it's going to be closer to 3 out of 7, if you get lucky. I'm not saying that the Suns have no chance in this series. That would be foolish, as their sharpshooters could get hot at the right time, and the Mavs' lack of an interior presence on the offensive end prevents them from truly slowing down the Suns' style of play. But if the Suns manage to get past the Mavs, they'll have little hope of winning the NBA championship against the Heat or Pistons, both of whom will punish the Suns for their lack of any semblance of an interior defense. And since the Suns will have to shoot lights-out to get past the Mavs, they're bound to fall back to earth in the Finals.

After my last post, I ate a good deal of humble pie (and hot fudge sundaes) this weekend. Actually, speaking of hot fudge sundaes, it was probably an omen when I stepped on something warm and thick after making one on Thursday night with my cat, Glory, meowing in the background. Half expecting to find hot fudge that I'd errantly dripped on the floor, I looked down and saw that I'd stepped in a soft stool. Glory, like the Spurs, wanted to make sure that no one wrote him off. And he sure did get my attention that night. Well, the Spurs had the Mavs' attention all along. But there's a psychological force that energizes players in elimination games. That sheer desire was just enough to hold off the Mavs in Game 5. And the NBA ensured that the Spurs had the advantage in Game 6 when it suspended Jason Terry. Right here in my own blog, I foolishly stated that the Mavs didn't need Terry to win. My father scoffed at me before the game, telling me that my head was in the sky. After the game, the reasons were more articulable: the Mavs don't have a consistent jump shooter when Terry's not in the game. When Terry plays, the Spurs have to be conscious of Terry floating around the perimeter, and this attention opens up the interior for Devin Harris to drive to the hoop. Without Terry around, the Spurs were able to use an extra defender to stop Harris from penetrating. They stifled him so consistently that even when he got to the basket in Game 6, he was too shocked to remember how to execute a layup. Either team can win Game 7, although I'll admit that the Spurs have the definite mental edge in this one. They're the legitimate favorite, and hats off to them if they finish off the Mavs in one of the greatest series in Western Conference Semi-final history. But the fact that one of these two teams will be out of the playoffs after tonight is truly unfair. The NBA concocted an awful playoff scheme, where the team with the second-best record (the Mavs) ended up with the fourth seed. Quite frankly, divisions make no sense when teams play division rivals as often as opponents outside their division. And then there was the race between the Grizzlies and Clippers to finish 6th in the conference instead of 5th because the 6th seed would get home-court in the first round due to having a better record than the mediocre Nuggets. When the Clippers and Grizzlies played late in the regular season, the Clippers tanked the game so that they would finish behind the Grizzlies. That was a great move by Clippers head coach Mike Dunleavy, as the Clippers are within a game of advancing to the Conference Finals. But how can anyone in the leage office defend a system that leads to teams intentionally losing games? Three years ago at mid-season, the NBA changed its playoff rules so that the first round featured 7 games instead of 5. David Stern made the switch because of fears that the underachieving Lakers might be knocked out of the playoffs early if the first round series wasn't extended. Stern's move demonstrated that the NBA could make playoff changes even after the regular season had begun. After countless commentators revealed the potential problems with the current system, Stern could have used his past actions as precedent for reformulating the playoff seeding system. But he didn't. And now one of the two top teams in the NBA is going to have an early summer vacation. If the Mavs lose tonight, they should have nothing but kind words for the Spurs' effort, execution, and resilience in this series. The NBA, on the other hand, is the true goat. Under a fair playoff system, the Mavs should have faced the Suns this round. As if that wasn't enough, the league ripped home-court advantage from the Mavs when they suspended Terry for a game. In a sense, Stern might be getting his revenge on Mark Cuban, but Dallas fans and the Mavericks don't deserve this fate.

It sucks. That's all that can be said about Terry's suspension, following the characteristic whining of the Spurs. Michael Finley finally earned his Spurs colors by crying to the league office after the game. The Spurs know that they can't win this game on their own merits, so they had to find an edge somewhere else. Getting one of the Mavs best players suspended for the crucial Game 6 is a typical Spurs move; I just hadn't expected this crap from Finley. Now, there's good reason to rain down the boos on this turncoat. Bitterness aside (I had to get it out), the suspension could fuel a furious Mavs' attack tonight. Sometimes, when the world looks like it's crashing down, teams rise above the storm and show their true character. Last year, the Mavs showed their grit when they came back against Houston after losing the first two games at home. They made a statement in Game 7 by destroying the Rockets by 40 points. That wasn't a championship Mavs team, but it had a lot of the same players, and their performance showed that Avery Johnson's team has plenty of mental toughness. But psychology's not the only reason that the Mavs should win the game tonight. Instead, it's matchups. If I were Avery Johnson, I'd start defensive specialist Adrian Griffin in place of Terry, and I'd have him clamp down on Manu Ginobili. When Ginobili gets frustrated, the Spurs seem to sputter, and Griffin's much more suited to contributing a quality defensive performance than Terry. If Devin Harris can simultaneously handle the hobbled Tony Parker, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to get any offense going. The matchups haven't changed much in the last two games, as Gregg Popovich seems to be settling for "small ball," while Johnson has been content with a lineup that emphasizes scoring. The best wrench that Johnson can throw in the Spurs' plans is to start Griffin and play Josh Howard for heavy minutes. These defensive stalwarts can frustrate Popovich's attempt to go small, and the Spurs will be on their heels as Popovich tries to make adjustments on the fly. Some reports indicate that Stackhouse might be starting in place of Terry. That will be a mistake. Stackhouse performs best coming off the bench because he's not the focal point of the opposition's defensive scheme. When Stackhouse sneaks up on an opponent, he's deadly; when he tries to create from the point, he's a liability. On the offensive end, the Mavs will be able to make up for Terry's absence. Howard hasn't had a big offensive outburst since Game 2; it's time for that to change tonight. Marquis Daniels can also come off the bench to frustrate the Spurs with his smooth-slashing abilities. And Harris, who has been outstanding in this series, needs to step it up one more notch. If he can consistently penetrate the Spurs' interior defense, the Spurs will have no choice but to leave Dirk Nowitzki in one-on-one coverage. And that will lead to an offensive explosion that harkens back to Dirk's pick-and-roll days with Steve Nash. The time has come. Championships are built from moments of adversity. Tonight is the most critical game in Mavericks franchise history, as a win will vault the Mavs to the next level. It's time to ignore the Spurs' extracurricular shenanigans and show them who's the best team in the NBA.

The Mavs were disappointed after missing a chance to close out the series in the final seconds of Game 5. And rightfully so, for they've been the better team in this series. But, unlike the Spurs, the Mavs didn't blame anyone but themselves for the loss. "With 2.4 seconds left, I settled for a fade-away jumper," Mavs' guard Jason Terry said. "With that kind of time, I can dribble from [the baseline] and get to the basket. That is inexcusable. I also turned the ball over with 34 seconds left, so tonight the blame falls squarely on me. Not Dirk, not anybody else, me." I'm glad you're not blaming the officials, but don't get too down on yourself, Jason. The Spurs left their heart on the AT&T Center floor last night, and they still barely squeaked by the Mavs. Fatigue's going to set in on Friday night, when the Mavs come out firing, and the end result's not going to be pretty if you're a Spurs fan. As a Mavs fan, I would have loved for them to have taken Game 5 in front of the San Antonio crowd. But the Spurs had too much pride for that, as Tony Parker and Tim Duncan pushed themselves to the limit in order to keep the series alive. Parker, who's been hobbled by injuries, won't be the same player on Friday night. And there's no way that Duncan can shoot lights out again. He'll be good, but the Spurs will need contributions from someone else in order to take down the Mavs. Game 6 will be all about Dirk. The rest of this series has been a prelude to a monster game from the German superstar. The Spurs have to gameplan for Terry, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, and Josh Howard -- leaving openings for Dirk that he didn't see in the first few games of this series. The AAC's going to be rocking on Friday night, and Dirk will show why he's the true MVP of the NBA. If not, the Spurs can punch their tickets to the Conference Finals. With two days of rest between Games 6 and 7, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to beat the defending champions on their home floor in the deciding game. But it's not going to get to that point because the Mavs did their job in Game 5. They ensured that they'll be facing a vulnerable and weak Spurs team in a series that's become a war of attrition.