2007 Baseball Preview

Hey everyone, it's Mddlfngz here. Baseball is back and it's time to look at some teams that can provide you with excellent value early in the season. Most of the public will be looking at last year's records when making their plays during April and May. This is a fantastic time to find teams that have made improvements in the off season via trades or free agency signings. Likewise, you might be able to identify some teams that are getting over injuries that may have cost them some wins last season.

One thing that should be noted before you start evaluating teams: There is a high amount of parity in professional baseball - now more than ever in the game's history. While there are some truly bad teams such as the Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Washington Nationals, there are a few truly exceptional squads like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and the New York Mets. Well, the latter 3 offensively at least. Aside from these teams, there's not much that separates the rest of the league.

Another important element in handicapping baseball is taking situational statistics into account. Certain pitchers have big problems with certain hitters. You would be wise to examine the histories of batter / pitcher match ups when determining who you will take in a game.

Let's begin by looking at a team from each division that can be considered either a valuable underdog or a sleeper pick.

American League:

West: Oakland Athletics - It's unclear who the clear favorite is in the AL West. The Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers and the Athletics could find themselves in a tight race throughout the season. For the time being, consider the A's a bit of a sleeper in the sense that the loss of Barry Zito and Frank Thomas has probably led the general public to underestimate their current value. Rich Harden is healthy and should capably fill in the # 1 starter position formerly occupied by Zito. Dan Haren and Joe Blanton are solid number two and three starters. The signing of Mike Piazza provides the A's with a strong DH who should thrive in a purely hitting context. If Eric Chavez can shake last year's injury bug, which looks probable so far, they will have a solid lineup rounded out with Shannon Stewart, Nick Swisher and the erratic but talented, MIlton Bradley. Huston Street is an exceptional closer, so there shouldn't be too many 9th inning meltdowns.

Central: Cleveland Indians - CC Sabathia leads this years Indians rotation again and serve as a strong anchor to their staff. The American League Central division is the most competitive in all of baseball, with the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox all providing formidable opposition to Cleveland. Fortunately, the Indians are loaded with three of the best hitters in the game with Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. Pitchers Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd and Jeremy Sowers will provide depth in to the Indians rotation. Keep in mind that their closer situation is tenuous, with fragile Joe Borowski currently occupying the role. On nights where Sabathia and Westbrook are pitching, hopefully the Indians can avoid reaching out to Borowski and instead rely on the capable arms of Rafael Bettancourt and Fausto Carmona.

East: Toronto Blue Jays - Led by ace Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays rotation should be one of the best in baseball this year. A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Okha and the resurgent Josh Towers will follow Halladay and should all contribute over 10 wins a piece. Closer B.J Ryan is a dominant 9th inning force who will continue to slam the door shut in 2007. The Blue Jays offense is versataile, with powerful hitters Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Troy Glaus all providing run support. The Blue Jays play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, so don't overlook them just because they're often overshadowed by their divisional neighbors.

National League:

West: Arizona Diamondbacks - With pitchers Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson (currently injured but should return soon), Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Edgar Gonzalez, the Diamondbacks are rightfully walking with new swagger in their step. Look for a big spark out of this years D-Backs, one they haven't had in shown in several years. Their starting lineup is powered by up and coming hitters Conor Jackson and Chris Young along with reliable veterans Chad Tracy, Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes. Look for the Diamondbacks to provide value in a division with public favorites like the San Diego Padres, San Franciso Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Central: Milwaukee Brewers - Like the D-backs, this years Brewers rotation is new and improved. Ben Sheets leads the corps of starters, followed by several other strong arms in Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan. Francisco Cordero seems to have turned his career around with pitching coach Mike Maddux and looks like his old self from his brigher days in Texas. The Brewers have an excellent lineup with Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Bill E. Hall and Johnny Estrada as their foundation. The Brewers will likely start the year as the dark horse of the NL Central and their value could inflate quickly should the Cubs or Cardinals falter. For now, look for them to to give you solid value in what is often thought of as a weak division.

East: Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies starting lineup contains enough big bats to strike fear in the most confident pitchers in the NL. With Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrel all in the heart of the order, you've got 4 guys capable of hitting for average, home runs and RBI. Seriously, what pitcher in their right mind ever wants to face Howard? Ok, maybe somebody like Roy Oswalt, but not many. Although new addition Freddy Garcia will begin the year on the DL, Bret Myers and Cole Hammels will lead the rotation until he returns. Both Myers and Hammels will frustrate hitters with their high strikeout totals and ability to pitch deep into games. Adam Eaton, if he can manage to stay healthy for once in his career, could be a strong number four starter. Somehow, Tom Gordon keeps ticking after all these years and can be expected to save at least 30 games again this season. Ryan Madson provides depth in the pen, should Gordon falter or wind up injured.

College Basketball (102.8 - 111)

Ohio State (+5) vs. Florida: Although Florida's immensely talented and experienced, they're laying too many points against a great Ohio State team. The Buckeyes enter the national championship game riding a 22-game winning streak, and freshman point guard Mike Conley, Jr., has evolved into one of the most dynamic players in college basketball. Florida's going to have problems defending against Conley's penetrating and distributing abilities. Also, Greg Oden's size allows Ohio State to matchup defensively against Florida's Al Horford and Joakim Noah. That's something that UCLA couldn't do. Plus, Ohio State has a bit of a chip on its shoulder after losing the football national championship to Florida. This one's going to be close, and that's why you should take the points.

MLB

Blue Jays (Halladay) -110 at Tigers (Bonderman): Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the American League, so it's hard not to take him against a Tiger team that did little to improve this offseason. Jeremy Bonderman's a good young pitcher, but he's not in Halladay's league yet.

Devil Rays (Kazmir) +160 at Yankees (Pavano): Scott Kazmir is poised to have a breakout year. Last season, he compiled a 3.24 ERA with 163 strikeouts in 144 innings. The Devil Rays shut him down late in the year in order to prevent fatigue in Kazmir's young arm, and that move could pay big dividends this year, as the Devil Rays are one of the sleeper teams in the AL. They have enough offensive weapons to beat up on Pavano, and as long as they've got Kazmir on the mound, they're a good bet. At +160, this line offers a lot of value.

Marlins (Willis) -120 at Nationals (Patterson): Washington's John Patterson is coming off of an injury-plagued 2006 in which he only threw 40.2 innings. When he takes the mound today, he'll have even less offense to work with, as the Nationals lost Alfonso Soriano and did little to replace his production. The Marlins' Dontrelle Willis should breeze through the Nationals' lineup.

Braves (Smoltz) at Phillies (Myers) -110: The Braves' John Smoltz will have a tough time navigating through a prolific Phillies' lineup at a hitters' ballpark. Even though Phillies' 1B Ryan Howard has struggled this spring, his teammates should be able to carry the load until he gets his swing back on track. Meanwhile, the Braves lost Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche this offseason, so their offensive production could take a bit of a hit.

Cubs (Zambrano) -110 at Reds (Harang): Carlos Zambrano is one of the best pitchers in the majors, so the Reds will have a difficult time scoring runs. Even though Aaron Harang is coming off of a terrific year, he was much better on the road (2.98 ERA) than at home (4.61 ERA), which is a notorious hitters' park.  Harang could have trouble navigating through a potent Cubs' lineup that's eager to prove the offseason money wasn't wasted.

Diamondbacks (Webb) -120 at Rockies (Cook): 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb pitched well at Coors Field last year (3.15 ERA in 20 innings pitched). Meanwhile, Aaron Cook is a mediocre pitcher (4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 2006).

Rangers (Millwood) +130 at Angels (Lackey): John Lackey struggled in his last two starts against the Rangers in 2006, as he gave up 13 ERs in 8.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Kevin Millwood has a 3.00 ERA in three career starts against the Angels. He should have a good game tonight, as the Angels offense won't be operating at full strength with Juan Rivera, Dallas McPherson, and Chone Figgins on the DL. Also, the Rangers are excited about starting the year under new manager Ron Washington, who's looking for his first career win. As a result, the Rangers could be fueled by an extra bit of emotional energy.

Yesterday: 3 - 1

Overall: 199.8 - 191

NBA (97 - 79)

Grizzlies at Warriors - Under 223: In the four games since injuries to Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire, the Grizzlies have scored 87, 88, 96, and 93 points. These point totals came against relatively weak defensive teams (Suns, Lakers, Blazers, and Sonics). Although the Warriors have scored 100+ points in four of their last five games, the Grizzlies' current offensive ineptitude should prevent the total from reaching 223 points. You have to remember that when totals are set this high, you need a group effort to reach it.

Wizards (-3.5) at Bucks: The Bucks are 1-4 ATS without Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva in the lineup, and they're 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Wizards are now at full strength with Caron Butler back in the lineup, and they nearly beat a good Raptors squad on Friday night before losing in overtime.

Cavs (-7) at Celtics. The Cavs are only 6-12-1 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs, but the Celtics are in a worse situation, as Paul Pierce's lingering elbow injury could force him to miss the rest of the season. The Celtics are just 11-24-1 ATS at home, while the Cavs are a respectable 19-16 ATS on the road. Moreover, this game has playoff implications for the Cavs, while the Celtics would be better off losing the rest of their games in order to have a chance at landing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.

Bobcats at Raptors (-7): In their last five games, the Raptors have shot a 47.4 FG%, while allowing a 39.8 FG%. They've also outrebounded opponents by 5.6 rpg. Plus, the Raptors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games, and they're 22-13-1 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have also been playing well ATS in their last ten games (7-2-1), and they've won both games since Emeka Okafor's return from injury. However, these wins came at home against the Hawks and Bucks. Even though the Bobcats have been improving as the year progressed, a superior Raptors team that plays well at home should be able to cover this spread.

Spurs (-8.5) at Pacers: The Pacers have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and they're just 16-23-1 ATS following a loss. Also, Jermaine O'Neal is doubtful for tonight's game, and the Pacers struggle mightily without their main offensive weapon. On the other hand, the Spurs have won six straight games SU (4-2 ATS), and they're 21-16 ATS on the road this season. Also, they've posted excellent efficiency numbers in the last five games: 50.7 FG%, while allowing a 41.5 FG%.

Nuggets (-4) at Sonics: The Sonics have won three straight games SU and ATS, but two of these wins came against the hapless Timberwolves and Grizzlies. The other win came at Denver (100-97), so the Nuggets will be trying to return the favor tonight. The Nuggets have lost five of their last six games SU (3-3 ATS), and they've allowed a 52.4 FG% in their last five games. As a result, they should be focussed on remedying their defensive woes tonight, and that shouldn't be a foreboding task against a Sonics team that's missing its best offensive player (Ray Allen).

Yesterday: 3 - 1

Overall: 196.8 - 190

NBA (95 - 79)

Cavs (+3) at Bulls

Clippers (-2) at Blazers

College Basketball (101.8 - 110)

Georgetown vs. Ohio State (+1.5): Both teams feature physical interior presences, but Ohio State has superior guards, and that'll be the difference in this game. Also, Georgetown struggled in the transition game against North Carolina, as the Hoyas didn't take over until North Carolina began playing a half-court game. Ohio State can function in both transition and the half-court, and this versatility will lead to a Ohio State victory.

UCLA (+3.5) vs. Florida: UCLA has played flawless defense this tournament, as they've dominated every game that they've played. The same can't be said about Florida, who have had some scares recently. And the only reason they beat Oregon was Lee Humphrey's lights-out perimeter shooting, combined with Oregon's Tajuan Porter's inability to hit an outside shot. UCLA's ability to play transition defense and maintain focus for the entire 40 minutes will lead to them avenging last year's championship game loss.

Yesterday: 0 - 1

Overall: 193.8 - 189

NBA (92 - 78)

Sorry, I don't have time to write up my picks today, so I'm just going to give them out without analysis.

Raptors at Wizards (-4.5)

Heat (-1) at Timberwolves

Nuggets at Suns (-7.5)

Rockets (-2.5) at Lakers