NBA

Lakers at Suns (-10.5)

Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs

Warriors at Mavs (-9)
 

MLB

Astros (Oswalt) -140 at Brewers (Bush): The Houston Astros (9-7) will play the Milwaukee Brewers (10-7) in a rubber-game this afternoon that will also determine which team is in first place in the NL Central. The Astros send their ace Roy Oswalt (3-0, 2.89) to the mound against the Brewers' Dave Bush (1-1, 5.82). The Wizard has looked nasty this year and has done very well against the Brewers throughout his career, posting a 3.39 ERA and an 11-6 lifetime record against them. Bush, on the other hand, is struggling with consistency this season, despite his decent career record against Houston (2-0, 2.17). Prior to last nights loss, the Astros had won 5 in a row behind the bats of Chris Burke and Jason Lane. Look for them to get another winning streak going today behind the ultra-competitive Oswalt, especially since yesterday's loss was largely fueled by a fluke 2 home-run day from Brewers' shortstop J.J. Hardy.

Mariners (Weaver) at Angels (Santana) -1.5 runs (+140): The Los Angeles Angels (8-9) have won 2 in a row against the Seattle Mariners (5-8) and will look to go to .500 on the year with a sweep this afternoon. Today's Angels' starter, Ervin Santana (1-2, 7.63), must be thrilled to be pitching at home again. After getting blasted this past Monday on a cold rainy day in Boston, he will be making his start today in a park where he always seems to take his pitching to another level. In 32 starts in Anaheim, Santana is 20-5 with a 3.07 ERA. The Angels (8-9) have won 2 in a row from the Mariners (5-8). Seattle's starter, Jeff Weaver (0-2, 15.75), has been dismal in 2007, allowing 17 hits and 14 ER through 8 innings of work. It's unlikely that Weaver will have an answer for the Angels' hitting machine, Vladimir Guerrero, who has lit up the Mariners pitching staff for 4 hits in 7 AB's, including 2 home-runs, in the current series. Big Daddy Vladdy has only faced Weaver 9 times in his career, but does have one HR to show for it.

Diamondbacks (Petit) at Giants (Cain) -1.5 runs (+110): The surging San Francisco Giants (8-8) have won four games in a row and will attempt a series sweep agains the Arizona Diamondbacks (10-9) this afternoon. San Francisco will hand the ball to Matt Cain (0-1, 1.80), who has pitched extremely well despite receiving little to no run support. That should definitely change today, as the Giaints hitters have been going off in the past week. Barry Bonds has 7 hits including 2 HR in his last 14 AB's, while Rich Aurilia is 9-25 with 6 RBI. The Diamondbacks will be sending Yusmeiro Petit to the hill today in place of injured starter Micah Owings. Petit came to the D-Backs from the Marlins in a trade for the infamous Jorge Julio. He will be making his first start for the Diamondbacks and was considered a top minor-league pitching prospect for years, but was slaughtered last year as a rookie for Florida, allowing an appalling 46 hits and 28 ER in only 26 innings.

Yesterday: 2 - 1.1 (MLB)

NBA (115 - 93)

Nets at Raptors (-4.5): The Nets finished the season by winning eight of their last ten games, but that was a result of an easy schedule at a time when a lot of teams stopped playing hard.   The Nets will struggle to matchup defensively against athletic power forward Chris Bosh.  Also, Jason Kidd's slowed down a bit, so he'll have trouble against the penetrating abilities of T.J. Ford.  The Raptors were 24-16-1 ATS at home this season, and they covered in both of their home games against the Nets (120-109 on 2/14, and 90-78 on 12/15).

Magic at Pistons (-9.5): The Magic went 7-3 SU in their last ten games, but they were fighting for a playoff spot.  Meanwhile, the Pistons have been resting up for the playoffs, and they'll have little trouble against an inferior Magic squad.  The Pistons covered the spread in their first three meetings with the Magic this season, and their five-point win on April 11 was a push.  That game didn't matter much to the Pistons, and I expect a blowout today.

MLB (62.3 - 48.5)

Braves (James) +120 at Mets (Perez): Young lefty Chuck James has pitched well against the Mets in their 44 plate appearances against him: .171 BA, .227 OBP, .341 SLG.  So far this season James has been solid: 16 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 13 K.  Meanwhile, Oliver Perez had major control problems in his second start of the season: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 7 BB.  Perez has struggled with his command since 2004, and the Braves' hitters can punish mistakes.  Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Matt Diaz, Ryan Langerhans, and Willy Aybar have homered against Perez in their careers.  In just six at-bats against him, Langherhans has two homers and two doubles.

White Sox (Contreras) +130 at Tigers (Robertson): Nate Robertson has gotten off to an excellent start this season (2-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), but he's had problems against the White Sox' hitters.  Paul Konerko is 15-for-52 (.288 BA) with four homers; Jermaine Dye is 13-for-35 (.371 BA) with seven homers, five doubles, and ten walks (.511 OBP); Jim Thome is 4-for-10 with a homer and a double; Tadahito Iguchi is 14-for-42 (.333 BA) with three doubles, two triples, and two homers; Juan Uribe is 17-for-43 (.395 BA) with a double, two triples, and two homers.  Meanwhile, Jose Contreras has recovered well since a disastrous opening-day performance.  In his last two starts, he's only allowed five hits and one run in 11 innings.  Contreras has also walked nine batters over that span, but that's better than allowing hitters to tee off on him.

Twins (Bonser) -120 at Royals (Greinke): Boof Bonser has given up ten runs in his last two starts, but those came against good offensive teams (Yankees and Devil Rays).  Bonser pitched well last year, so I expect him to recover against a Royals' squad that ranks tenth in the AL in batting average, runs scored, and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).  On the other hand, after two terrific starts, Zack Greinke returned to earth against the Tigers last Monday: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB.

Diamondbacks (Gonzalez) at Giants (Zito) -150: Edgar Gonzalez has gotten worse in each of his starts, and his overall stats on the season aren't impressive: 18.1 IP, 22 H, 11 ER, 5 BB, 14 K.  Meanwhile, Barry Zito returned to his aggressive self against the Rockies on Monday, as he shut them out for six innings, allowing only three hits and three walks. 

Phillies (Hamels) -130 at Reds (Milton): Despite giving up six walks in his only start against the Reds last year, Cole Hamels struck out six and allowed only one hit over five innings.  That start also came at Cincinnati, which is a notorious hitters' park.  This season, Hamels' control has gotten better, as he's only walked four batters in 19 innings.  His 3.32 ERA and 1.21 WHIP make him the de facto ace of the Phillies' staff.  Meanwhile, Eric Milton has struggled this year: 10.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 10 K. 

Indians (Byrd) -150 at Devil Rays (Seo): Paul Byrd's first start of the year was erased due to the snowy conditions in Cleveland two weeks ago, but he came back with six shutout innings against the White Sox last Saturday.  Byrd's a reliable starter, while his opponent, Jae Seo, has been extremely hittable this year: 16.1 IP, 28 H, 14 ER.  In 48 plate appeareances against Seo, the Indians have a .333, BA, .388 OBP, and .622 SLG.

Padres (Hensley) at Rockies (Francis) -130: Although Clay Hensley claims that he's no longer affected by blister problems, his numbers show that something's still wrong with him: 14 IP, 24 H, 19 ER, 8 BB, 7 K.  Until he has a good performance, it's a good bet to go against him.  Meanwhile, Rockies' starter Jeff Francis began the year with two solid starts before faltering against the Giants last Monday.  But Francis' 2006 numbers (4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) indicate that he just had a bad outing, so he should be fine today.  Francis has shown that he can pitch well at Coors Field, as he had a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 90 innings there last season. 

 

Yesterday: MLB: 2 - 8.6

MLB (56.4 - 45.4)

Red Sox (Tavarez) +170 at Blue Jays (Halladay): Roy Halladay is one of the best power pitchers in baseball, and he's off to a great start this year. But the Red Sox boast a formidable lineup, and their top two hitters have had success against Halladay. David Ortiz is 20-for-67 (.299 BA) against him, with seven homers and four doubles. Manny Ramirez is 19-for-68 (.279 BA), with four homers and two doubles. Six other hitters on the Red Sox roster also have homers against Halladay: Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, Alex Cora, Doug Mirabelli, and Mike Lowell. Although Julian Tavarez is not a good starting pitcher, he's had success at Toronto's Rogers Centre. In the last three years, he's posted the following numbers there: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 1 ER.

Diamondbacks (Hernandez) at Padres (Peavy) -1.5 runs (+125): Peavy is off to a monster start this year: 20 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 12 K. The only player in the D-backs' lineup with a history of success against Peavy is Conor Jackson, who is 5-for-13 with a double. Chad Tracy has faced him more than any other D-back, and he's just 8-for-43 (.186 BA). Meanwhile, several Padres have had success against Livan Hernandez: Mike Cameron (9-for-32, 5 HR), Brian Giles (9-for-32 with four extra-base hits), Jose Cruz, Jr. (8-for-17, 1 HR), and Adrian Gonzalez (2-for-6, 1 HR). Although Hernandez has only given up four earned runs and 14 hits in 20 innings this season, he's walked 11 batters while striking out only nine. Those walks are going to catch up to him, especially against a Padres' lineup that features patient hitters at the top of the order.

Cubs (Hill) -120 at Braves (Redman): Rich Hill is quickly developing into one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the fact that he's flown under the radar results in nice value with this line. In 14 innings this season, Hill's only given up one run on four hits and four walks, while striking out 11 batters. Meanwhile, Mark Redman has been awful this season: 8.1 IP, 15 H, 12 ER. That's actually worse than his numbers from last year (5.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), which was his worst season in the majors.

Rangers (Padilla) +130 at White Sox (Vazquez): Vicente Padilla has been very good against the White Sox' hitters in their 130 plate appearances against him: .198 BA, .301 OBP, .293 SLG. Of the regulars in the lineup, only Tadahito Iguchi has had success against him: 3-for-8 with a double and a homer. Although Paul Konerko is 4-for-11 against Padilla, he has no extra-base hits. On the other hand, Javier Vazquez has had trouble against four of the Rangers' regulars: Sammy Sosa (9-for-27, 3 HR, 2 double), Frank Catalanotto (9-for-20, 1 HR, 1 double), Kenny Lofton (7-for-10, 3 triples), and Hank Blalock (4-for-10, 1 HR, 1 double). And even though Vazquez has only given up nine hits and two runs in 12 innings this year, his seven walks are a bit worrisome, especially against an increasingly patient Rangers' lineup. Also, the Rangers will be focussed today after getting no-hit by Mark Buehrle in yesterday's contest. And there seems to be a letdown effect for the team that got the no-hitter. Perhaps, last night's post-game celebrations in Chicago might also cause a literal hangover effect.

Twins (Santana) -1.5 runs (-105) at Mariners (Washburn): Today is a somber day in Seattle as the Mariners (5-5) await news regarding the extent of fire-baller Felix Hernandez's elbow injury. This afternoon, the Twins (9-5) will look to capitalize on the climate of uncertainty as they aim for a sweep against the tough-luck Mariners. You could almost consider it poetic that the Twins will be sending their ace, Johan Santana (2-1, 3.60) to the hill the very day after Hernandez went out. Santana and Hernandez missed facing off against each other by exactly one day in what would have been a match up for the ages. The Mariners will counter with southpaw Jarrod Washburn (0-1, 3.75). Santana, arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball, absolutely owns the Mariners. In 14 starts against the M's, Santana has complied a 6-1 record.

Yesterday: MLB: 2 - 3.1

MLB (47.1 - 33.2)

Red Sox (Matsuzaka) -150 at Blue Jays (Chacin): This line is going to be up to -170 or -180 by the first pitch, so take advantage of it now. I'll be back with more picks and analysis later, but I wanted all of my readers to jump on this valuable pick before the public increases the odds throughout the day...If you're now reading this for the first time, the line is now at -160. Hit it now. Matsuzaka has been very good in his two starts this year: 14 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 14 K. His loss to Seattle last Wednesday can be explained by the fact that opposing pitcher Felix Hernandez was lights out, and there was a lot of pressure on Matsuzaka: it was his first game at Fenway, and he happened to be facing Japanese icon Ichiro Suzuki. Matsuzaka also has an advantage tonight due to Toronto's injury-depleted lineup. Starters Troy Glaus and Reed Johnson are both on the disabled list. Closer B.J. Ryan is also out, which alters everyone's respective roles in the bullpen. Blue Jays' starter Gustavo Chacin has been just okay against the Red Sox' batters in their 144 plate appearances against him: .277 BA, .347 OBP, .385 SLG. David Ortiz has two homers in 24 ABs versus Chacin, who has given up six runs in 11 innings so far this year.

Padres (Maddux) -120 at Cubs (Miller): Wade Miller didn't pitch well in his only start of the year (vs. Milwaukee on April 8): 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2003, when he posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 187.1 IP. Meanwhile, Greg Maddux has been sharp so far in 2007: 11.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. Only five of the Cubs' batters in the lineup today have faced Maddux enough to develop any significant trends. If you average their numbers, they have a .292 BA, .330 OBP, and .357 SLG against the future Hall of Famer. That's not terrific, but the Padres should be able to put enough runs on the board against Miller to get Maddux the win.

Pirates (Gorzelanny) at Cardinals (Wainwright) -1.5 runs (+125): Last night, the Pittsburgh Pirates got their second win in two years at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will try to prevent the Pirates from taking the second of a two-game set this afternoon. Pittsburgh will send southpaw Tom Gorzelanny (1-0, 1.50) to the hill versus the hard-throwing Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.98). Although Gorzelanny had a great outing against the Cardinals last Tuesday, he failed to factor in that decision and will need to pitch very carefully today to avoid the dangerous bats of Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen. The slow start of Pujols has probably influenced the public's opinion of the Cardinals in a negative way. Against a lefty like Gorzelanny, Pujols could be in for a feast. Wainwright has been solid through 13.2 innings this year, going at least six innings in both starts, and he has a nice history of stopping the Pirates' most dangerous hitter, Jason Bay (0-for-4 against Wainwright).

Mets (Glavine) -120 at Phillies (Garcia): Glavine's been very good in his three starts this season: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Against the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell have had success, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled. Rollins has an amazing six homers in just 66 at-bats against Glavine, and Burrell has gone deep four times in 63 at-bats. On the other hand, both Utley and Howard have hit below .200 against Glavine. For the Phillies, Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled in his career against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Glavine's the safe pick in this one, as Garcia could struggle in his first game back.

Braves (Smoltz) -1.5 runs (-130) at Nationals (Williams): Continuing with the trend of picking the Big Three Aces from the 1990s Braves' teams, I'm taking John Smoltz, who pitched well in a loss to the Nationals last Thursday: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB. Ryan Zimmerman and Austin Kearns are the only regulars in the Nationals lineup who have had success against Smoltz; everyone else is near or below the Mendoza line (.200 BA). The Braves only scored one run on five hits last night, and that offense is too good to stay in a slump for long. Opposing pitcher Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP.

Rangers (Tejeda) +130 at White Sox (Garland): The White Sox have been struggling offensively, and it won't help that their regulars have never faced Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda was terrific against the Red Sox before laying an egg last week against the Devil Rays, but it's tough for hitters to face a pitcher with good stuff for the first time. And the Rangers could score a lot of runs off of White Sox starter Jon Garland, as cleanup hitter Mark Teixeira has absolutely owned him. Teixeira has 15 hits in 34 at-bats against Garland, and ten of those hits have gone for extra bases (four homers and six doubles). When looking at Garland's career numbers, his excellent 2005 (3.50 ERA, 1.17 wHIP) seems to be an abberration. And even though he won 18 games last year, he posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Marlins (Mitre) vs. Astros (Oswal) -1.5 runs (even): Marlins' starter Sergio Mitre is the poster boy for the theory that expansion has diluted the pitching talent in baseball. In 172.2 IP at the major-league level, Mitre has a 5.91 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. So far this year, he hasn't shown much improvement: 11 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 4 BB. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt is coming off of a gutsy win at Philadelphia, in which the ace braved windy conditions and lots of cheap hits. Oswalt allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he deserved the win considering that any other pitcher would've given up at least ten runs in the same situation.

Giants (Cain) -110 at Rockies (Hirsh): Rockies' starter Jason Hirsh has begun the year well: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 11 K. But he's never pitched at Coors Field, and his first two starts came in pitching parks (at San Diego and at LA). Meanwhile, Matt Cain has been absolutely filthy this season: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 10 K. The walks need to go down, but as long as hitters can't make solid contact against him, Cain should be able to pitch well in even the toughest hitters' parks. Also, the Giants' offense has been hot lately, so Cain should finally be able to earn a much-deserved win tonight.

Angels (Weaver) at A's (Gaudin) Even: Although the Angels and the Athletics both have 6-7 records, the Halos have been in a total tailspin lately, losing 4 in a row. During the Boston series, the Angels were outscored 25-3. When Vladimir Guerrero was plunked yesterday on the wrist by a Josh Beckett fastball, the Angels not only lost their best hitter overall, but the one hitter on their squad who has more than one hit off tonight's A's starter, Chad Gaudin. Guerrero should remain sidelined for at least the next couple of days, leaving the Angels high and dry without their number-one run producer. In the noisy confines of McAfee Coliseum, Gaudin will have the support of the boisterous Oakland fans. Gaudin has performed well in place of the injured Esteban Loaiza, throwing 10.2 innings while allowing only 3 ER and 8 hits. In that same span, Gaudin has accumulated an impressive 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Angels will counter with the fragile Jered Weaver, who will be making his first start of the year after opening the season in the DL with tendinitis in his right biceps. Weaver had an impressive rookie campaign last season (11-2, 2.56), but will probably be a little rusty tonight as he gets himself re-acclimated to facing big-league hitters.

Twins (Ortiz) -110 at Mariners (Weaver): One glance at Jeff Weaver's line from this year is enough to tell you he's horrible, but how bad is he really? Well, through two innings of work, he's been pounded to the tune of seven hits, seven runs and one walk. Allow me to remind you that this is through two innings. Twins' hitters Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter (.455 against Weaver) must be chomping at the bit to get a piece of Weaver. Tonight, 33-year-old veteran Ramon Ortiz will get the ball for Minnesota. The Twins must love what Ortiz has done in his first two outings, throwing 15 innings while allowing only three runs. Keep in mind that Ortiz accomplished this task in part versus one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, as he limited the Yankees to three hits and one run in eight innings. If Ortiz can perform like this against New York, he should be able to match the feat against the Mariners' miserable offense.

Yesterday: MLB: 1 - 5.3

MLB (45.1 - 30.1)

Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes.

Braves (James) -1.5 runs (-110) at Nationals (Williams): In 11 IP in 2007, Chuck James has only given up one run on 11 hits and four walks. He's won both of his starts, including one against the Nationals on April 11, when he held them to five hits in six innings. James is looking to continue his successful 2006 campaign, when he posted the following stats en route to an 11-4 record: 119 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Meanwhile, Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. Note: Matt Chico is now starting for the Nationals.  He's given up 14 hits and three walks in just 8.2 IP, so the Braves are still the pick.  But you might have to lay -120 or -130 odds.

Royals (Greinke) at Tigers (Verlander) -1.5 runs (even): The Royals have faced Justin Verlander 70 times, and they haven't been able to make good contact: .172 BA, .243 OBP, .219 SLG. That includes only three extra-base hits (all doubles). So far this season, Verlander hasn't given up a run in 13 innings. Although Royals' starter Zack Greinke has begun the year well, he's had trouble in his career against Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe, and Ivan Rodriguez.

Mets (Maine) -110 at Phillies (Garcia): Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Meanwhile, John Maine has shut down the Phillies in their 86 plate appearances against him: .237 BA, .322 OBP, .395 SLG. But Maine is looking to rebound from last week's start against the Phillies, when he surrendered six walks in just 4.2 IP. Maine should be fine, though, as walks weren't a big issue for him last year, when he posted a 1.13 WHIP in 90 IP.

Brewers (Capuano) -120 at Reds (Milton): Brewers' starter Chris Capuano has gotten off to a so-so beginning to the 2007 season: 10.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 5 ER, 10 K. But the real reason for this pick is Eric Milton's poor performances at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark: 31 starts, 178 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Milton struggled in his first start this year, giving up ten hits in 5.2 IP.

Marlins (Sanchez) Even at Astros (Rodriguez): Sanchez completely shut down the Astros in his start against them last year, as the current Astros went 1-for-15 against him, and their only hit was a single. In 2006, Sanchez posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.19 wHIP in 114.1 IP. On the other hand, Wandy Rodriguez had bad numbers last year: 124.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. In the Marlins' 28 plate appearances against Rodriguez, they have a .400 BA, .552 OBP, and .750 SLG.