Last Week's Record: 5-6

Season Record (Against the Spread): 65-49-4

During the early-afternoon games, it looked like I was gonna roll. Then "thump-thump" happened, and everything seemed to spiral out of control afterward. But this week appears to have some great lines, so I'm anticipating some redemption.

This week's picks (in bold):

1. Chiefs (pick 'em) at Dolphins: Don't go overboard in analyzing the Dolphins' "stunning" upset of the Bears (well, I guess it wasn't too stunning to me -- I picked the Dolphins). The Bears beat themselves, as Rex Grossman's horrible decisions put the Bears' defense in terrible spots. Notably, Dolphins' QB Joey Harrington was only able to throw TD passes when he started with a short field. Harrington won't scare the Chiefs, whose defense did an admirable job of containing the Rams' explosive offense last week. Also, the Dolphins' defense will have a difficult time stopping Larry Johnson. You might want to double up on this one. Chiefs should be a four-point favorite.

2. Texans at Jaguars (-10.5): QB David Garrard has the Jaguar offense rolling. The Jaguars' loss to the Texans three weeks ago is still ripe in Jack Del Rio's mind. Expect that defense to punish David Carr in this one.

3. Chargers at Bengals (+1): This line's been moving in favor of the Bengals all week, so that gives me reason to pause before making this pick. The Bengals really should be a three-point underdog, but I like the Bengals' emotional edge at home after suffering losses in four of the last five games. If not for LaDainian Tomlinson's heroics last week, the Chargers could have suffered an upset loss to the Browns. Also, the Charger defense just isn't the same without Shawne Merriman pressuring the opposing QB. I like the Bengals against a possibly flat Charger squad.

4. Ravens (-7) at Titans: This game may be hyped as the "Revenge of Steve McNair," but the Ravens will use a ball-control offense to crush the Titans' weak run defense. Vince Young has had lots of trouble lately, and things are only going to be tougher against a stout Raven defense.

5. Bills at Colts (-12.5): This one's a no-brainer as the Colts' offense has been rolling, while their defense appears to be improving. It's the NFL, so anything can happen, but betting on the Bills just isn't a smart decision.

6. Saints (+4.5) at Steelers: Could someone please explain to me why the 6-2 Saints are underdogs against the 2-6 Steelers? The Saints' best offensive weapon has been Drew Brees' arm, while the Steelers have struggled mightily in pass coverage. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger has yet to show that he can play a game this season without doing something stupid. Take advantage of Steeler Nation's unabashed loyalty, which drives the line to favor Pittsburgh in this one. The smart money is on New Orleans.

7. Redskins at Eagles (-7): Against a weak Washington secondary, look for Donovan McNabb to have a statement game coming out of the bye week. Plus, the Redskin offense will have trouble handling the Eagles' blitz. I'm still a little perturbed at Cowboy defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's refusal to attack Mark Brunell last week. Eagle defensive coordinator Jim Johnson won't make the same mistake.

8. Packers at Vikings (-5.5): The Viking offense should rebound against a mediocre Packer defense. This is a make-or-break game for the Vikings, and I don't expect them to falter at home.

9. Jets at Patriots (-10.5): Coming off the disappointment of last Sunday's loss to the Colts, the Patriots will be ready to punish the Jets. If the Patriots' defense can force Jets' QB Chad Pennington into some early miscues, this could turn into a first-half blowout. The Patriots can then control the clock with their running game, preventing any hope of a Jets' comeback.

10. 49ers (+6) at Lions: A few weeks ago, the Lions were considered one of the worst teams in the league. Then, they go out and put up big numbers against a below-average Falcon defense, and suddenly they're nearly a touchdown favorite over an improving 49er squad. That's just too much. The 49ers and Lions are pretty much equal. So, the Lions should be a three-point favorite by virtue of their home-field advantage. Take the 49ers because the line's skewed.

11. Broncos (-9) at Raiders: After watching that Monday night game, I don't know how the Raiders are going to score any points with Andrew Walter quarterbacking behind that awful offensive line. Walter looked as mobile as Drew Bledsoe. Meanwhile, the Bronco passing attack came alive last week, albeit against the Steelers' awful coverage unit. Some people might point to the fact that the Raiders are ranked second in the league against the pass, but that statistic is misleading. Teams get big leads against the Raiders, and then they run the ball successfully to control the clock. As a result, there hasn't been much of a reason for the opposition to pass.

12. Rams (+3) at Seahawks: Quite frankly, I was unimpressed with Seattle last Monday. Also, they're coming off a short week of preparing for a very tough Rams' offense. The Rams will score their points, and I don't think that the Seahawks can match them without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander.

13. Cowboys (-7) at Cardinals: Playing in Arizona is almost like a home game for the Cowboys, as they have almost as many fans in the stadium as the Cardinals. The Cowboys should take advantage of a demoralized Cardinals' team. And the Cowboys had better get in synch, as they face a colossal challenge with Peyton Manning and the Colts coming to Dallas next weekend.

14. Bears (pick 'em) at Giants: The Bears will be focused and hungry coming off the upset loss to the Dolphins. That defense should hound Eli Manning, forcing him into costly turnovers. And Rex Grossman could bounce back against a Giants' defense that's slightly depleted by injuries.

15. Buccaneers at Panthers (-9.5): If the Panthers hadn't dropped so many balls against the Cowboys two weeks ago, they probably would have won the game. Coming out of a bye week, the talented Panthers should be able to eliminate their mental mistakes and score enough points to keep this one out of the Bucs' reach. If Panthers' head coach John Fox is smart, he'll begin phasing out RB DeShaun Foster in favor of the explosive DeAngelo Williams.

Upset Special: To me it's not an upset, but I can only go by the lines that the sportsbooks offer. So, I'll take the Saints (+190). A $150 bet wins $285. Those are great odds considering that the Saints should win this one against a Steeler team that faces near-impossible odds of making the playoffs.