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Suns-Mavs Matchup Breakdown
Wednesday, May 24, 2006, 10:30 AM EST
[Boris Diaw]
Before analyzing the one-on-one matchups, the big question is what type of gameplan Avery Johnson will use to beat the Suns. A slow-down game could be a bad idea because the Mavs aren't suited to playing a half-court offense on a consistent basis. They just don't have the low-post player (e.g., Tim Duncan) to do it effectively. On the other end of the spectrum, if the Mavs try to run with the Suns, they would be playing right into Mike D'Antoni's scheme. Nash runs better than any other point guard in the league, so Avery certainly shouldn't do that.
Thus, the best method is a mixture of styles, which has suited the chameleon-like Mavericks all year. They can run, they can slow down, and they can play tough perimeter defense. Avery should go with a traditional Mavs' lineup with Desagana Diop starting at center, instead of going small with forward Keith Van Horn. Diop can use his long arms to contest the Suns' drives to the basket, while lightning-quick Devin Harris chases guards Leandro Barbosa and Raja Bell on the perimeter. When the Suns miss shots, the Mavs shouldn't be afraid to run. But when the Suns go through phases where they're shooting lights out (and it will happen), the Mavs should slow the game down to a crawl. At these points, the Mavs should have Diop (or Dampier) and Nowitzki as their only presence on the offensive boards, while the guards and Josh Howard get back on transition defense.
Speaking of offensive boards, that's going to be one of the keys in this series. If the Mavs can consistently get second-chance opportunities, it won't matter if the Suns shoot 55 percent. The Mavs need to be confident that they can win the game shooting as low as 40 percent as long as they are grabbing offensive rebounds. The one caveat is that they can't go for the offensive boards at the expense of transition defense because catching an opponent out of position is Nash's game.
Thus, Avery has a major balancing act on his hands, and there should be even more on-the-fly adjustments than we saw in the series against the Spurs.
Individual Matchups:
Point guards: Terry will probably start out on Nash since Harris is better utilized guarding the Suns' perimeter players. But if Terry has problems containing Nash' drives, Avery shouldn't hesitate to sub in Darrell Armstrong. Armstrong struggled against the Spurs' Tony Parker, but Nash isn't as quick as Parker, so Armstrong could draw some offensive fouls, especially if Nash wears down.
Shooting guards: Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa are average players who love to shoot the wide-open three-pointer. Thus, the key to stopping them is to contest their shots. Harris is going to get a workout in this series, but he's young and should be up to the task. The Mavs struggled with their perimeter defense when Harris was out of the lineup during the second half of the season, so his performance will be a key to the Mavs prevailing in this series.
Forwards: There really isn't much of a difference between "small forward" and "power forward" on the Suns, so I'm handling the positions together. Both Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas like the perimeter, but Marion's also the Suns' most dangerous slasher. Josh Howard's going to have his hands full with Marion, but his long arms might be the perfect antidote for Marion's awkward jump shot (it begins at chest level, so Howard could get some blocks). Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki can keep Thomas in check. On the other end, the Suns have no answer for Dirk, who should continue to drive to the basket and draw fouls. Once the Suns are in foul trouble, they'll have to play even softer than usual; otherwise, D'Antoni will be forced to dip into a mediocre bench as his top players foul out.
Centers: Diop and Dampier should be able to prevent Boris Diaw from doing anything in the interior, but that's really not an issue since Diaw is a 6-8 forward who plays like a guard; of course, only in D'Antoni's weird scheme would such a player be starting at center. Whoever draws Diaw needs to be wary of his passing abilities. Thus, if the ball goes into him, the Mavs' can't abandon their defensive assignments. Diaw's the reason why Avery might be playing Van Horn instead of his centers, but that would be a mistake that plays into the Suns' hands as the Suns could have a problem matching up against Dampier if the Mavs decide to get some offensive output from him in this series. I know that sounds ridiculous since Dampier hasn't done anything offensively in his two years with the Mavericks, but he has been able to produce in the past. If Dampier can exploit his mismatch against the Suns' defense by averaging 10-12 points per game, the Mavs would have the interior offensive presence that they'll occasionally need to slow down the Suns' runs.
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