MLB (74.7 - 62.8)
Rockies (Fogg) at Mets (Pelfrey) -1.5 runs (+110): Josh Fogg has pitched poorly this year (6.61 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), and the following Mets have pounded him in the past: Shawn Green (10-for-31, 5 2B), Moises Alou (10-for-27, 1 HR), Paul Lo Duca (10-for-21, 2 2B), Carlos Beltran (8-for-19, 1 3B), Carlos Delgado (6-for-12), and Jose Valentin (3-for-7, 1 HR). Opposing starter Mike Pelfrey hasn't pitched consistently well this year (10.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 5 K). However, he has immense potential, and he should be serviceable against a Rockies' offense that hasn't been able to hit much this season. The Rockies rank last in the National League in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mets are first in slugging percentage and second in runs scored.
Brewers (Sheets) +110 at Cubs (Lilly): After a good opening-day start, Ben Sheets gave up 12 earned runs over his next two starts. But he rebounded with a solid outing against the Astros last week, and his 1.15 WHIP for the season shows that it's tough for opposing hitters to reach base against him. Among Cubs' hitters, only Derrek Lee has had consistent success (17-for-46, 2 2Bs, 7 HR). Aramis Ramirez (12-for-55), Jacque Jones (2-for-13), and Cesar Izturis (2-for-24) have all struggled against the Brewers' ace. Although Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been one of their lone bright spots this year (26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), he's due for a bad outing. Last year, Lilly had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 181.2 IP, and I expect his numbers to be closer to that by the end of this season, with a moderate improvement due to the switch to the pitcher-friendly NL. Also, the Brewers have won four straight games, so it'll be hard for the Cubs, who are losers of three straight, to break through today.
Red Sox (Schilling) -130 at Orioles (Cabrera): Against Curt Schilling, the only Orioles with success are Aubrey Huff (11-for-43, 5 2B, 1 HR), Chris Gomez (10-for-33, 1 HR), and Miguel Tejada (7-for-20, 3 2B). Everyone else in their lineup has struggled to hit him. Schilling should put an end to the Red Sox' modest two-game losing streak today, as he's been good this year: 26 IP, 11 ER, 24 H, 5 BB, 20 K. Meanwhile, opposing starter Daniel Cabrera has shown improvement with his control: 26.3 IP, 12 ER, 28 H, 7 BB, 26 K. Last year, he walked 104 batters in 148 innings, so this season's decline in walks indicates that he's finally learning to pitch. But the fact is that Cabrera is still learning, and he's getting hit more than in the past as a result of his desire to avoid walks. The Red Sox boast dangerous hitters who make great contact on pitches that get too much of the strike zone, so I expect Cabrera to have a tough time tonight. And Schilling should hold the Orioles to few enough runs for the Red Sox to grind out a victory.
Braves (Hudson) -150 at Marlins (Olsen): Tim Hudson has been terrific this season: 29 IP, 2 ER, 16 H, 11 BB, 19 K. He beat the Marlins on April 15, allowing six hits and a run in seven innings. This is actually a rematch of that game, as Scott Olsen got banged up for five runs on six hits in just 2.2 innings. Olsen's been struglging with his control this year: 18 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 15 BB, 10 K. Since he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his funk, the Braves are a good play today.
Blue Jays (Burnett) at Yankees (Pettitte) -1.5 runs (-110): Andy Pettitte has been a warrior this year, as he's started four games and pitched in relief twice in order to save an overworked Yankees' bullpen. Pettitte's put up solid numbers in his outings (25.3 IP, 5 ER, 24 H, 9 BB, 13 K), and he'll be looking to break the Yankees' five-game losing streak today. Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been inconsistent this year (21 IP, 13 ER, 18 H, 13 BB, 14 K), which doesn't bode well against the Yankees' powerful lineup. Both teams have hit the opposing starter in the past, but I expect Pettitte to get the better of this matchup today in the pressure-filled environs of Yankee Stadium.
Devil Rays (Jackson) at Angels (Lackey) -1.5 runs (-120): The Los Angeles Angels (10-10) open up a two-game set tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (9-10). Although their records are almost identical, the Angels are superb at home (9-3). The Halos will give the ball to their ace, John Lackey (2-2, 2.55 ERA), who revels in chewing up the Devil Rays and spitting them out. The tall Texan is 6'1" with a 2.61 ERA against Tampa Bay. Tonight's starter for the D-Rays is the unpredictable Edwin Jackson (0-2, 6.75 ERA). Although Jackson was once considered a top pitching prospect, he's fallen victim to a lack of command. Tonight, he faces a lineup that will make you pay dearly for any mistakes. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero has been knocking the cover off the ball this past week to the tune of nine hits in his last 18 AB.
Tigers (Durbin) at White Sox (Danks) Over 10.5 runs: To say the Tigers' Chad Durbin (0-1, 10.54 ERA) has been bad this year would be a gross understatement. Durbin has yet to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his 3 starts and has allowed a whopping 20 hits in just under 14 innings. Even more frightening than Durbin's numbers this year are his career numbers against the White Sox (1-6, 10.26 ERA). The White Sox' John Danks (0-2, 5.06 ERA) has been marginally better than Durbin this year, but couldn't find his way out of the fourth inning last Friday when he faced Detroit. In that contest, Danks allowed six hits and four runs in 4.2 innings. Both the Tigers and the White Sox have some huge bats (Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, et al.) that will likely knock these two struggling pitchers out before the 5th inning. Expect a slugfest tonight at US Cellular Field.
NBA (118 - 98)
Wizards at Cavs -11.5: Without their top scorer (Gilbert Arenas) and most productive player (Caron Butler), the Wizards are pretty much dead on arrival in this series. 11.5 points is a lot, but the Wizards' 36.5 FG% in Game 1 wasn't a fluke, as they just don't have anyone who can consistently put the ball in the hoop against a quality team.
Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs: The Nuggets are too good to be getting this many points. Although the Spurs should bounceback in Game 2 to even the series, this game's going to be relatively close, unless the Nuggets just have an awful shooting night. Nene and Marcus Camby appear capable of causing problems for the Spurs' interior game, as the Spurs were forced into too many jumpshots in Game 1, and they only got to the free-throw line ten times. Meanwhile, the Nuggets took the ball to the rim, and they were rewarded with 25 free-throw attempts.
Warriors at Mavs (-9): In Game 1, the Mavs shot only 35%, compared to the Warriors 42%. The Warriors aren't known for their defense, so the Mavs' poor-shooting night appears to be a bit of a fluke. For the season, the Mavs shot 46.2%, and they should come close to that tonight. Also, the Mavs will be deadset on avenging the embarrassing Game 1 loss, so this one should be a blowout.