I know, I know, technically the MLB season started last week with the Red Sox playing the A's in Tokyo - but to me that was not opening day. That was a clueless Bud Selig once again proving he has his head up his vertical smile - of all the cultures that we need to sell baseball to I'm thinking the Japanese are already hooked. How about having opening day affordable to underprivilaged American kids - since those are the people not taking up the sport anymore. Anyway, that is a different rant for a different day.

Here in New York, and around the country, there is some thought that this year will absolutely, positively, be the year the Yankees miss the playoffs. But here's the thing, I don't see it as so cut and dry.

If we assume that the Yankees, Red Sox, M's, Angels, Detroit, Indians, and I'll throw in Toronto are the teams that are going to be slugging it out for the playoffs (I know, I'm out on a limb there) and a trip to the WS then they all pretty much have the same issues.

The Yankees have a balky Pettitte, an old guy at the end in Moose, and two unprovens in Hughes and Kennedy. In the pen they've probably got the best setup/closer combo right now, but not terribly strong/proven behind them.

Boston has a balky Beckett, an old guy at the end in Wake, and two unprovens in Bucholtz and Lester. In the pen they have a great closer and a very good set up guy - but not much behind them.

Detroit has an old Rogers, Bonderman coming off a poor year, who knows what with Willis and little or no depth to go with them. They lost their two best relievers in Zumaya and Rodney and have an average closer in Todd Jones.

The Indians have their own Mussina in Paul Byrd, who knows if Carmona can repeat what he did last year. Westbrook is alright and Lee was so bad last year he spent the season in Triple A. They have the best pen but the worst closer in Borowski. I also don't like the approach to the off-season that Mark Shapiro took. The Indians came very close to the World Series last year and so he just sat back and returned exactly the same team. The last time I saw a GM who didn't win the World Series do this, it was Steve Phillips after the Mets lost the Series to the Yankees in 2000. It didn't pay off for the Mets and I don't see it paying off for the Indians either.

The Angels just lost Escobar for the year, Lackey is out for the first month of the season as is Scot Shields. Their opening day rotation will have Jon Garland as the number one followed by Ervin Santana and Jared Weaver who had up and down years last season - behind them are two complete unknowns in Joe Saunders and Dustin Mosely.

The Blue Jays rely a ton on three pitchers who can't stay healthy (Burnett, Halladay, and Ryan) they've already lost Casey Janssen for the year and Ryan is starting the year on the DL and not expected back any time soon.

The Mariners probably have the best rotation with Bedard, Hernandez, Washburn, Batista and Silva. And they have a very good closer in Putz and a really good set up guy in Morrow. And I say the Mariners "probably" have the best rotation because we have yet to see Felix Hernandez live up to his title of "King Felix" and Silva and Batista could as easily be good or terrible. I am also curious to see how Bedard handles being the ACE of a team that is actually supposed to contend rather than a team like the Orioles.

In the end, the regular season will not be decided by pitching, it will be decided by the lineups. If that rings true then I like the Yankees' chances of making the post season again.

So here are my picks:
Boston
Detroit
Seattle
New York

AL MVP - A-Rod
AL Cy Young - Beckett
AL Rookie of the Year - Joba Chamberlain
First Manager fired - Eric Wedge

and I think Detroit will beat the Mets in the World Series