Three derbies and a clásico…

Three or four times a season you get a weekend when the schedules throw out a handful fixtures that have fans, partisan and neutral, salivating in anticipation. This is one of these weekends.

Everton vs. Liverpool

The latest edition of the Merseyside derby finds both clubs in difficult and trying circumstances. Liverpool will not be present when the draw for the knock out stages of the Champions League is made and with five losses in their opening thirteen league games a dogfight for a top four spot seems to be in prospect.

Perhaps Liverpool’s troubles that have sheltered Everton from a storm of criticism given they are also off to a less than stellar start.  Both clubs can point to extensive injury problems but the statistic that stands out above all others is how many goals both teams have conceded.

Both Benitez and Moyes know that when their defenses perform the respective teams generally gets results. But defense has become a questionable area this season for both Liverpool and Everton. Liverpool have already conceded 20 goals in 13 games this season while the comparative figures in prior seasons have been 8, 6, 15, 8 and 16. Or to look at it another way Liverpool only allowed 27 goals throughout the entire 08/09 Premier League season.

Everton goals against has not been as miserly as Liverpool over the last number of years but even so they still kept the goals against below a goal a game last season. They have already conceded 23 goals (and six in the last two matches) which is their highest total after 13 matches since the 1994-95 season.

Fantasy football enthusiasts will know this already but Pepe Reina and Tim Howard are not providing anything close to the value of last season. In the 2008/09 season they kept 20 and 17 clean sheets respectively while this season the numbers are 3 and 2 with over a third of the games already played.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

It is still early in the season but if there is one club at the moment capable of running away with the Premier League it is Chelsea. Although they lost to Aston Villa and Wigan many of the other wins have been emphatic with opponents steamrollered rather than dissected.

It is the power and strength (mental as well as physical) that have been the defining differences between these two teams over the last five seasons. In that time Arsenal’s overall fragility has surfaced repeatedly. The FA Cup semi-final at Wembley and the Premier League match at the Emirates late last season were excellent examples.

No player more epitomizes the power and strength of Chelsea than Didier Drogba – especially against Arsenal. Since the start of the 2005/06 season these two London clubs have played each other 11 times. Drogba has played in 8 of the 11 matches and Chelsea have won 7 and drawn the other. In the three games Drogba has missed Arsenal won two and drew the other.  

Genoa vs. Sampdoria

The early season luster has faded from both these teams after they made impressive starts in Serie A.

Genoa won each of their opening three matches while city-rivals Sampdoria went one better. After slipping to a midweek defeat to Fiorentina Sampdoria rebounded to beat Serie champs Inter in what has been the high point - so far. As often is the case a big win leads to lesser feats rather than greater ones and Sampdoria have only won two of the last seven Serie A games since the defeat of Inter.

Their game against Inter was also of significance for Genoa but for a very different reason – they lost 5-0 at home and were shredded. Since the opening three matches Genoa have failed to win consecutive games and based on their performances over the last few rounds it is difficult to see them challenging for a top four place like we saw last season.

Player to watch – Samp striker Giampaolo Pazzini has scored six times in his last eight Serie A appearances.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

There has already been so much written about this game that it seems quite pointless to add much more. We have two of the great names in world football playing in front of a packed house at one of soccer’s cathedrals with talent worth well in excess of a billion dollars on display – you just can’t miss it.

Holiday Reading….

The following books come recommended if you are looking to catch up on some reading over the upcoming season.

“Spartak Moscow – A History of the People’s Team in the Workers’ State” – Robert Edelman is Professor of History at the University of California and first went to see Spartak Moscow in 1965. That first game has now turned into a book that traces the club history from its formative years through the glory years of the mid-fifties to today’s embodiment. This is not a run-of-the-mill club history that recounts great players and great victories. These are certainly covered but the story is told through the constantly changing lens of the Russian reality which makes it a much more substantial and satisfying read.  

“The Global Game” – edited by John Turnbull, Thom Satterlee and Alon Raab. A series of essays from a myriad of writers reflect how the power of the game can shape individuals, communities and nations. 

“Soccernomics” – Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski systematically tackle much of the received wisdom that is often passed off as insight. They look at what the data tells us and it isn’t always what we expect.

“The Manager – The Absurd Ascent of the Most Important Man In Football” - Barney Ronay traces the evolution of the football manager from the most humble of beginnings to today where the best generate as many column inches and discussions as the best players in the world.

“Elephants, lions & eagles” – Italian journalist Filippo Ricci takes us on a journey through African football.

“Playing for Uncle Sam" – The Brits story of the North American Soccer League” – David Tossell recounts the rise and collapse of the NASL through interviews with some of British players who made the trip across the Atlantic many summers ago. 

Who is hot and who is not…a look at the form teams over the last 5 games…..

Premier League
Chelsea – 12 points
Wolverhampton Wanderers – 3 points

Ligue Une
Auxerre – 15 points
Le Mans – 1 point

Bundesliga
Werder Bremen – 11 points
Hertha Berlin – 2 points

Serie A
Milan and Inter – 12 points
Siena – 1 point

La Liga
Real Madrid and Valencia – 13 points
Atletico Madrid – 1 point

SPL
Rangers – 13 points
Kilmarnock and Hearts – 3 points

Sign-Off……..

After five years and one thousand columns and blogs for FoxSoccer.com it is time to bid farewell. Over the last year or so I have found it increasingly difficult to fit commitments into available time. It has reached the point where a change is needed and my blog is the casualty.

Thanks to all the regular readers and in particular heartfelt thanks to the regular posters to the blog over the last forty-two months. Some of you have been with the blog every step of the way since it was born during the World Cup of 2006 and have always been willing to offer your opinions in a respectful (mostly!!) way.

Thank you.

The Best…..

Slovenia’s amazing performance in reaching their second World Cup Finals was unfortunately overshadowed by angst and ringing of hands.  When you consider that Slovenia finished a very poor fourth in Group 5 of World Cup 2006 qualifying and sixth (only Luxemburg finished lower) in Group G of Euro 2008 qualifying it only reinforces a magnificent achievement.

Algeria bounced back from a heart breaking late goal from Egypt on Saturday to qualify in the play off. Antar Yahia the Bochum striker scored the only goal and it was a cracker.

Sunderland gave a clinic on how to shut down Arsenal. Resolute in the tackle, diligent in their marking and closing down Sunderland implemented Steve Bruce’s game plan to a t.

Spurs’ performance in putting nine goals past Wigan fits both best and the stats section.

The Milan and Cagliari game on Sunday was a terrific game of football. Seven goals, both teams intent on pushing forward and just enough defensive mistakes to keep the ultimate outcome in question until the final whistle. As it was Milan ran out winners by the odd goal in seven.

Finally an opportunity to indulge myself just a wee bit. Dundee came back from 2-0 down at half time to beat Inverness Caley Thistle 3-2 and win the Scottish Challenge Cup. Craig Forsyth scored the winner with seven minutes left. The Challenge Cup is open to all Scottish Football League teams. Not a big deal in the grand scale of things but silverware nne the same.

With Los Angeles Galaxy taking the first penalty kick they had a 60% chance of prevailing. (Source- Soccernomics). However, the odds went out the window as Real Salt Lake took their first MLS title. Over the 120 minutes I thought Real had a definite edge but the Galaxy could jusifiably look to some forced substitutions as somthing that took away some of their options.

Honorable mentions……..

Darren Fletcher’s opening goal for Manchester United against Everton was truly spectacular.

Lyon could only draw at Grenoble who are firmly entrenched at the foot of Ligue Une. But for Grenoble it was a second consecutive draw - the only points they have recorded this season in 13 games. What’s more they drew level while playing with only ten men.

Best forgotten…..

There has been more than enough crap flying over the last five days without adding to the pile.

Stat facts…..

Manchester City has now drawn their last six Premier League games and are one short of the league record. Next up is Hull City at the City of Manchester Stadium on Saturday.

Auxerre have now won seven consecutive matches – the latest a 2-0 win over Monaco. In the process they leapfrogged Bordeaux and now sit top of Ligue Une. Auxerre’s best ever run was eight straight wins in the 1983/84 season. 

Stephen Caldwell’s goal for Burnley was the first header conceded by Aston Villa this season.

Bordeaux’s 1-0 loss to Valenciennes broke a run of 39 games without a loss at home.

Two goals, the second a header by Darren Dodds gave Dundee United their first win over Celtic since August 1999. It broke a Celtic run of 38 games without losing to United and 29 of the matches Celtic won.

Some of the stat highlights from Spurs 9-1 pasting of Wigan. Spurs became on the second team in Premier League history to score nine goals in a game – the other was Manchester United pulverizing Ipswich Town at Old Trafford fourteen years ago.

Jermain Defoe follows Alan Shearer and Andy Cole as a scorer of five goals in a Premier League games and his second half hat-trick was the second quickest recorded The first three of Defoe's goal came in a seven-minute burst after the break - the second fastest hat-trick in the history of the Premier League. Robbie Fowler’s three goals in 273 seconds against Arsenal in 1994 remain the quickest.

Finally Spurs eight second half goals is the most scored by a single team in one half of a match.

What was said….

Paul Doyle traces the story of a real French football villain. 

The Sunday Herald story that claims Rangers are looking at Houston Dynamo’s Stuart Holden.

Simon Kuper looks at the growing use of statistics in soccer decision making.

Paul Knott considers the background to the unlikely headline, “Switzerland World Champions.”

Here is reaction to the match-fixing arrests.

Coming up this week…..

We have match day 5 on Tuesday and Wednesday in Champions League and on Thursday there is a the Europa League. 

There is a pair of Premier League games scheduled for Wednesday. Fulham are at home to Blackburn while Everton visits Hull City.

Not since Zinedine Zidane lined up Marco Materazzi’s chest with his head in Berlin over three years ago have so many opinions, distortions, hyperbole and hypocritical utterances been spewed forth.

The “Henry Incident” has provided an opportunity for outlandish stereo-typing and xenophobia.  Opportunists have embraced a platform from which to moralize while others see the chance to advocate the red herring solution of video replay.  (When Tony Cascarino lectures on ethics and fair play and isn’t laughed out of town then the apocalypse must be at hand.)

Certainly the goal should have been disallowed and the Republic of Ireland and their fans have a right to be aggrieved and to feel badly let down. The officials got the call wrong – either through not seeing the play or wrongly interpreting Henry’s actions. However, the debate was quickly hijacked and rapidly distorted. The hijackers seem to fall into three categories.

First of all we have the “the what will we tell the kids?” faction and the “it just reinforces the view that cheats win,” multitude. To the first tell the kids the same thing that you tell them when someone does something bad but prospers. Bad things happen in life and some nasty people do benefit – sport is no different.  It doesn’t mean you have to take the same route.

As for the latter it is not only simplistic but also wrong-headed. It is no truer than the assertion that people who don’t cheat always lose. (If you do happen to believe that then please take a place in chronic cynics’ corner, far far away.)

The second group is the souls who believe technology will cure all and the latest occurrence proves irrefutably that it is time for the camera to be used. It is a very cute way of avoiding the debate about the full ramifications of using technology to review calls that are almost always subjective rather than objective. Video technology may arguably be less likely to bring consensus than our present method.

Technology advocates are often zealots and refuse to countenance the possibility that the law of unintended consequences may kick in. Essentially the law – which is not actually “a law” – relates to the unintended results that accrue from a course of action that might in fact be counter to the intended results.

Rather than video replays ensuring fairness and light for all could it encourage players to cheat even more on the basis that “if I am doing something wrong it is up to camera to catch it?”

Such a possibility only increases when it is suggested that the use of replays would not interrupt play because they would be capped. (Isn’t a paradoxical position to claim that “irrefutable evidence” should be used but only once each half?).  “Cheating” might become less overt but much more insidious. 

The final clique is the “Henry is a cheat” bandwagon-jumpers. (Is is just a coincidence that such a high percentage of video proponents also seem quick to besmirch Henry? Perhaps it comes from watching replay after replay is super-slow-mo and the V-Js have forgotten that the game is played in real time.)

Cheating surely requires premeditation.  From the time the ball skips off the turf to  the time it leaves Henry’s hand it can be no longer than one second. Essentially Henry had to deal with the following in that miniscule amount of time. The game was in extra time, he was traveling at a good clip towards the Irish goal, the ball was skipping off a greasy surface and heading towards him at an angle. 

To “cheat” Henry would have had to act with a level of premeditation that would be nothing short of superhuman. (This is not supporting the notion that Henry did not commit a foul – there is no direct requirement for intent - by the conventional meaning - in the laws of the game. Undoubtedly the goal should not have been allowed to stand.)

But surely it is a case of a player reacting in a way that is quiet natural given the circumstances and in particular the time available. A defender on the goal line and with a ball blasted at him within arm’s length will almost always move his hand towards the ball. In both instances it is an instinct fine tuned through thousands of hours of practice and playing.  

To label Henry a cheat in such circumstances requires us to cast a wide net over almost everyone who has ever played the game.  Handball – cheat, pushing off a defender- cheat, picking a defender at a corner kick – cheat, moving ten yards up the touchline for a throw-in – cheat.

That leaves us with the failure by Henry to admit to the referee that the ball stuck his arm and hand. The French captain is taking a roasting for that as well. The laws of the game do not require self policing by players but that can be written in if the powers-that-be see the advantages of such a system.

We could then look forward to the day when a defender admits to a referee that he did in fact trip the opponent and insist on being sent off. Or in the absence of such a change can we look forward to the same level of indignant protests that we have seen and heard in the last 24-hours the next time a defender fails to own up to a wrong-doing?  

HISTORICAL FOOTNOTE

With the Thierry Henry incident top-of-mind the newspapers have been quick to recount other injustices. One that I remember well (or I certainly thought I remembered it well) was the penalty given against Wales in a World Cup qualifying game against Scotland at Anfield in 1977.

The score was 0-0 at the time and although Scotland would score a late second goal through Kenny Dalglish the Jordan/Jones incident was a critical event in the game.

The reason I say “thought’ is because I have come upon a couple of articles that are at odds with my recollection. Here is how the Daily Telegraph described the incident,

“In the 78th minute of Scotland’s crucial World Cup qualifier against Wales at Anfield, striker Joe Jordan rose with defender Dave Jones to challenge for Asa Hartford’s throw into the box. To the surprise of the Welsh fans and players, referee Robert Wurtz pointed to the spot believing Jones to have flicked on the ball with his hand while TV replays showed otherwise. Scotland duly scored to book their place at the 1978 World Cup Finals in Argentina.”

First of all I remember it as being a long-throw from Willie Johnston and a quick check of some reputable sources confirmed that to be the case. As for Welsh fans and players being surprised – well that surprises me. In fact I don’t recollect it generating much controversy at the specific moment or even right after the match.

As for TV replays showing otherwise – again that is very much at odds with how I remember things unfolding. The quality of television replays was poor 30 plus years ago and I never saw nor have I seen a replay that conclusively shows Jordan punching the ball rather than the Welsh defender David Jones.

However, a Scottish Sunday paper (Sunday Mail perhaps?) was the first to print an enhanced picture that showed Jordan’s fist making contact with the ball rather than Jones. That was five days later.


Paul James in the Globe and Mail also has a different version than the facts of the time.

“After seeing Thierry Henry's get away with a blatant handball in last night's pivotal World Cup qualifier between France and Ireland it was difficult to not recall a similar incident back in 1977 when Wales played Scotland in their all important final qualifying game.”

Well it certainly seems difficult to recall it correctly.  It was indeed Scotland’s final game but it was not the case for Wales.

It was a three country group and before the Anfield match the table looked like this; Scotland P3, Pts 4, Czechoslovakia P3, Pts 2, Wales P2, Pts 2. A Wales win over Scotland would have certainly made them favourites to qualify but it would have been far from certain.

In fact, a Wales win would have pulled Czechoslovakia back into contention and there would have been a possibility of a three way tie at the completion of group play.

At that time Czechoslovakia were the European Champions after beating the then reigning World and European Champions West Germany in the 1976 final. Hardly a slam-dunk even if a draw would have been all Wales needed. 

A draw with Scotland would have left Wales needing a win – again hardly a fait accompli.

The penalty decision was unjust and rightly grieved by what was at the time a fine Welsh side. However, to imply in any way that the decision solely stopped Wales from reaching the World Cup Finals is a distortion of the facts.

The Best…..

New Zealand keeper Mark Paston stepped in to take the place of regular starter Glen Moss who was suspended. Paston took his opportunity with both hands as he saved a penalty that ultimately made the difference between the Kiwis going to the 2010 World Cup Finals and Bahrain qualifying instead.

The atmosphere was phenomenal and Egypt kept their fans on edge until the fifth minute of injury time before adding to an early goal from Amr Zaki. An Emad Moteab header means that Algeria and Egypt have to play again – in Sudan on Wednesday – in order to decide Africa’s fifth group qualifier.  

It wasn’t a goal but if it had been it would have been a truly magnificent goal. Yuri Zhirkov’s slalom run from the half way line was breathtaking and only the leg of Slovenian keeper Samir Handanovic averted a stunning goal.

Honorable mentions……..

The Los Angeles Galaxy v Houston Dynamo western conference final could easily have gone either way. In the end it was a substitute appearance by Alan Gordon that swung things the Galaxy’s way.

Gordon entered the match in the 96th minute but made two critical contributions in extra time. Gordon was fouled by Houston’s Ricardo Clark and that set up a free kick from which LA opened the scoring. Six minutes later and the same pair where involved and this time Clark tripped Gordon in the penalty box.

Obafemi Martins struck twice for Nigeria has they beat Kenya 3-2 and qualified courtesy of Tunisia losing to Mozambique.

Best forgotten…..

The 83rd minute is likely to haunt Tunisian soccer for some time.  Going into the the last round of group play in Africa Tunisia enjoyed a two point lead on Nigeria and only had to match Nigeria’s result in order to qualify for the finals. In the 82nd minute Tunisia was tied 0-0 with Mozambique while Nigeria and Kenya were tied 2-2. One minute later Dario scored for Mozambique and Obafemi Martins for Nigeria.

The George Burley era as Scotland’s manager looks to be coming to an overdue conclusion. A 3-0 thrashing from Wales means that Scotland have won only three of the 14 internationals played under Burley’s leadership.

Canada lost 3-0 to Macedonia and two missed penalty kicks.

Stat facts…..

The last four meetings between the Republic of Ireland and France have produced a total of two goals.

Ukraine and Greece finished scoreless and it was the first time in 11 internationals that Greece has recorded a clean sheet.

Nilmar scored the only goal of the game for Brazil against England. The Villarreal and former Lyon striker has now scored 5 goals in Brazil’s last four matches.

Portugal has only conceded two goals in their last 11 international matches.

What was said….

Richard Whittall with something that is often sadly lacking when discussing soccer in Canada – common sense and a rationale well constructed argument.

Taxing times coming for foreign players in Spain?

The “cost” of Angel Di Maria continues to climb – it started at £12M, then became £27M and has now hit £36M.

A biography of the former Ipswich Town chairman John Cobbold is about to hit bookstores. Cobbold’s support of Bobby Robson in his early years at Portman Road was extremely important as results did not go well early in Robson’s stint with Ipswich. The biography has been 26 years in the making.

The Bundesliga voted last week to keep the membership model for clubs.

And Newcastle fans want to mimic the German model.

When he broke into the Celtic side John Kennedy showed the potential to be a great defender. An opponent’s reckless tackle brought it all to a premature end.

Sometimes following in fathers’ managerial footsteps bring missteps.

A lot of folks have jumped to the conclusion that any attempt to have Celtic and Rangers join the English Premier League is now dead and buried and the suggestion never will again see the light of day. Fat chance.

The vote this time is said to have been 14-6 which is significantly better than 20-0 the first time around. When the vote is shifting your way there is absolutely no chance that bags will be packed. It will take a couple of years but it will be back on the agenda.

Fabio Capello handed off an England team talk and here is how it turned out.

Coming up this week…..

Play offs to decide the remaining six qualifying spots. Next up will be the draw that takes place on December 4.

If…..

During the Russia v Slovenia play-off game on Saturday the television camera caught Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the stands. Big games often bring out politicians which got me thinking.  If politicians were players who would they be like?

Here are a few suggestions to start off.

Putin – A midfield schemer who doesn’t hesitate to get his retaliation in first - ala Graeme Souness in his playing prime.

Barack Obama – A bit like Dimitar Berbatov at Manchester United. Some great touches but hasn’t lived up to his potential so far.

Angela Merckel – A fullback who gets noticed and who can handle the rough going. A bit like Gianluca Zambrotta perhaps.

Silvio Berlusconi – He gets knocked down again and again but keeps on bouncing back no matter how many bad headlines he generates. David Beckham?

George W Bush – A bull in china shop type defender who is only ever one play away from another embarrassment – Philippe Senderos.

Gordon Brown – A squad player who had the wait for his place but so far hasn’t made much of his chance, Nani?

Twenty two teams plus the host nation South Africa have already secured a spot in next summer’s World Cup Finals. Three more countries from the Africa federation will join the select group this weekend as group play concludes.

There are also six play-off matches scheduled over the next five days and the winners will complete next summer’s roster. New Zealand and Bahrain have already played the first leg of their play off while the other five matches, four in Europe and one between South America and CONCACAF, will play a home and home series.

In all likelihood goals will be at a premium, particularly in the first legs, as countries try to ensure that their World Cup dreams do not dissipate in ninety minutes. That places huge pressure on the players expected to score the goals.

New Zealand v Bahrain

Bahrain only scored 19 goals in 18 qualification matches and they drew a blank in the home leg against New Zealand. Striker Ala’a Hubail tore cruciate ligaments after the first leg and his injury is considered to be a severe blow to the Bahrainis. Their best chance of a goal may be midfielder Salman Isa who plays his club soccer with Al Arabi of Qatar and has scored three during the qualifying phase.

On the other hand the New Zealanders carry an in-form strike threat. Gold Coast United striker Shane Smeltz is the regaining A-League Golden Boot winner and he has 11 goals in 9 games so far this season.

Costa Rica v Uruguay

Two forwards who earn a living in the Dutch Eredivisie will carry their countries hopes in the play-off of the Americas.

Ajax captain Luis Suarez has already scored five times for Uruguay in World Cup qualifying but it is his strike rate of 16 goals in 13 league games in the Dutch league this season that catches the eye.

Since joining Ajax two summers ago Suarez has paid back the $13M transfer fee and more. In his debut season he scored 17 goals in 34 league games and followed that up with 22 last season.

Brian Ruiz is the league’s second top scorer with eight goals for leaders Twente. The Costa Rica striker scored six goals in 15 CONCACAF qualifying matches including a pair in the final game against the USA.

A win against the USA would have earned Costa Rica and automatic spot but they gave up a last ditch equalizer and now must regroup against a Uruguay side that is facing a third straight World Cup play off scenario. They were successful in 2001 but fell to Australia at the final hurdle in 2005.

Russia v Slovenia

Guus Hiddink has a number of options to choose from as far as a main striker is concerned but none are inspiring confidence. Roman Pavlyuchenko can’t get a start for Tottenham Hotspur, Zenit’s Alexander Kerzhakov was poor against Germany last month and it is two months since Pavel Pogrebnyak scored his last league goal for his club Stuttgart.

Arsenal’s Andrei Arshavin might carry a greater threat as the support striker while midfielder Vladimir Bystrov has 6 goals in 8 games for Zenit St. Petersburg.

Slovenia’s 18 goals in ten qualifying games are deceptive given that eight goals came in two games against San Marino Nil. Milivoje Novakovic scored five of the goals and was Slovenia’s top scorer. However, goals have not come freely at the club level and Novakovic has only scored twice for Cologne in the Bundesliga – mind you Cologne has only scored seven times in twelve league matches.

Republic of Ireland v France

No doubt the Republic of Ireland will take goals from any source but a goal from Robbie Keane might provide an added jolt of inspiration. Keane has scored 40 times for his country and in the 33 games in which he has scored Ireland has only lost one – even then it was in a penalty shoot out. Twenty four times the Republic has won and eight times the match finished in a draw.

France had eight different players contributing to the 18 goals they scored in group qualifying.  The four goals from top scorer Andre Pierre Gignac do not appear remarkable but they were scored in six appearances – what’s more the six appearances amounted to a little under 300 minutes in actual playing time.

When minutes played are translated to full games it means that Gignac has scored at a clip of better than a goal a game since his call up in April. France captain Thierry Henry describes the Toulouse striker as "an old-fashioned centre forward" so Richard Dunne and the Irish defence can expect nothing remotely close to silky soccer over the two legs.

If they have done their homework the Irish will know that Gignac is overly reliant on his right foot. He scored 24 goals in Ligue Une last season with 23 coming from his right peg.

Greece v Ukraine

Ukraine coach Alexei Mikhailichenko will look to the experience of Andrei Shevchenko for goals. Despite a torrid time at the club level over the last few seasons Shevchenko has played like a man reborn for the national team since his return to Dynamo Kiev. Shevchenko had six goals in nine qualifying games and has scored four in the last five competitive away matches played by Ukraine.

Shevchenko missed a penalty against England in the key group game last month but the odds are that he will step up again if needed. Ukraine was awarded five penalties in ten group matches so he may well get another chance.

When Greece needed goals Theofanis Gekas delivered. Gekas may be unable to hold down a starting position with Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga but he finished as the top scorer in UEFA qualifying after hitting double figures. Four of his ten goals came in an important 5-2 win over challengers Latvia.

Gekas has only started one Bundesliga game so far this season and has made five appearances as a substitute. His only club goal this season came in a 2-1 German Cup loss to Kaiserlautern.

Portugal v Bosnia-Herzegovina

Subtract the eight goals scored against Malta in two games and Portugal’s goal scoring record of 9 goals in 8 games is far from impressive. It is also an accurate reflection of why Portugal is in the play offs when many would have expected the 2006 semi-finalists to qualify automatically.

It also partly explains why Portugal’s hopes of breaking free of scoring problems rest with a player who has only scored two international goals. Sporting Lisbon’s Liedson only became a naturalized citizen in late summer and he made his debut for Portugal shortly after.

It was the Brazilian born striker who rescued Portugal with a headed equalizer with only minutes remaining in a crucial away match against Denmark in early September.

On the other hand goals have flowed for Bosnia in finishing behind a Spanish side that completed group qualifying with a 100% record over ten games. Bosnia carries a number of goal scoring threats with midfielder Zvjezdan Misimovic (16 goals in 46) and striker Zlatan Misimovic (13 goals in 19) prominent.

However, the man Portugal will fear is Wolfsburg striker Edin Dzeko who had a terrific 2008/09 season.  Dzeko finished with nine qualifying goals – just one behind Gekas – and he has five league goals and two in the Champions League so far this season.