The Chicago Bears have the best defense in the NFL.  The Bears also possess a stout offensive line, a strong running game, and a former pro bowl wide reciever in Mushin Muhammed.  Yet, they have one garing weakness; the quarterback.  Kyle Orton has the worst QB rating in the NFL, but he has a 9-4 record.  Lovie Smith has come to his defense week in and week out.  His typical comments are something like, "Orton played well today, we like what he did today."  Or, "Kyle made progress today, there will be no QB change next week."  The question remains though:  Is Kyle Orton good enough to carry the team to the Superbowl?  Or is the defense good enough to win, despite Kyle Orton?

Those that throw their support to Kyle Orton site the 2000 Baltimore Ravens as an example of a team winning "despite" their QB.  Fair enough, but let us take a look at some numbers to really compare the two QBs.  In 2000, Trent Dilfer started eight games throwing for 1502 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs, with a completion rate of 59.3%, and a QB rating of 76.6.  Kyle Orton has started all 13 games throwing for 1798 yards, 9 TDs, 13 INTs, with a completion rate of 53.9% (35.3% and 48.6% in the last two games), and a QB rating of 60.9 (lowest in the NFL).  While the Ravens' defense was outstanding, they were not completely alone.  Their QB was adequate, and the offense around the QB was also adequate.  The Bears' offense is inadequate, and Kyle Orton is not improving as the season progresses.   

One could make the argument that Kyle Orton is regressing, not progressing.  In the month of October playing against Cleveland, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Detroit, Kyle's average QB rating was a respectable 84.2, with the Bears going 3-1 during that month.  His completion percentage during that month was 58%.  In the month of November playing against New Orleans, San Fransico, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, Kyle's average QB rating was 53.65, with the Bears going 4-0 during that month.  His completion percentage during the month of November was 53.85%.  So far, in the month of December playing against Green Bay and Pittsburg, Kyle's average QB rating is 45.45 with the Bears going 1-1.  His completion percentage in December is 41.95%.  With his very evident regression, it is putting pressure on the Bears' defense to be perfect.

The Bears defense has been opportunistic and dominate, especially up front, all year long.  However, they have had to be perfect all year to make up for Kyle Orton's bad performance.  Last Sunday was a good indication of what happens if the defense slips and doesn't get early stops.  The Bears fell behind and could not catch up.  The Kyle Orton led offense has not come back from any lead more than 3 points all year long. 

Lovie Smith is claiming the Bears will win with defense and good running, and that they are a similar team to last year's Pittsburg Steelers.   Make no mistake about it, this year's Bears team is NOT last year's Steeler team.  Big Ben was much more effecient and effective as the Steelers' starter last year, and was light years ahead of where Kyle Orton is right now. 

The Chicago Bears will not be able to win in the playoffs with Kyle Orton.  If the Bears want to win in the playoffs, they must do something about the quarterback position, and they must do it quickly.  It is unknown whether or not Rex Grossman will be able to elevate the performance of this offense, but it is pretty clear he would not do worse.  Lovie Smith needs to stop worrying about hurting someone's confidence, and make a decision that will give the Bears a better chance in the playoffs.